Housing Market Tracker - Texas Slumps, Florida Perks Up Slightly

Quotes of the Day

"Any aggressive pricing is going to mean that the apartment is going to sit and sit and sit on the market. But now that the market is down (marginally, not like the rest of the country), this is the perfect time to pull the trigger. … Explain to your buyers that now is the time to buy." - Brian Huang, the sales manager at New York City's City Connections Realty, in an email to his brokers after Bear Stearns investment bank collapsed. (The Real Deal, Apr. 9th)

"Excess supply is responsible for much of the risk we're seeing in the market. The excess supply of housing in the United States is 9.2 months for existing homes (the 20-year average has been 6) and 9.8 months for new homes (the 20-year average has been 5.5), which will continue to depress prices.” - David W. Berson, Chief Economist and Strategist for the PMI Group. (Big Builder Online, Apr. 10th)

Home Prices, Sales Data and Trends

Housing Prices In Two-Year Dive. Virginia: “The median sales price last month was about 24% below peak prices. But the March 2008 median of $265,000 is still double the levels at the beginning of the decade… The roughly $52 million in sales this past January was about an 85% drop-off from the June 2005 peak and the lowest since February 2002. Sales volume rose to about $81M last month… Between May 2005-August 2005, area homes spent an average of 28 days or less on the market before selling [vs.] 138 days on the market now… Since October, homes have been selling for 10% less than list prices, on average.” (Fredericksburg.com, Apr. 14th)

State Fails To Carry Out Schwarzenegger's Big Land Selloff. “MediaNews analysis: California has failed to implement Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's ambitious four-year-old plan to sell $5 billion worth of surplus, underutilized or unneeded structures and land to help significantly lower persistent, multibillion-dollar state deficits. [This] has contributed to the need for painful, mid-year funding cuts and a looming $8B deficit in the coming 2008-09 fiscal year… analysts said. The few significant parcels sold — or expected to be sold — are in San Jose and Santa Clara… The Governor's Finance Department said the state sold off nothing [in] 2004-05. Sales climbed to $12.9 million in 2005-06 but fell to $1.4M in 2006-07.” (Contra Costa Times, Apr. 13th)

Housing Bubble Busted. “Per Census Bureau, In Q2’07, there were 127.7 Million Homes in the US. Of these, 17.3 Million were Vacant. That is a whopping 13.6% of all US Homes were sitting empty. 12.6% in the North East, 12.6% in Mid West, 15.7% in South and 11.7% in the West.” (Housing Bubble Bust, Apr. 13th)

Out With the Old: Storied Mansions Fall in Greenwich. “Greenwich, Connecticut Historic District Commission: In Q1’08, 19 homes in this wealthy coastal town of 64,000 were demolished to make way for new ones… Over the past three years, more than 70 homes in the town were demolished annually. Many blame the tear-downs on the influx of wealthy financial migrants from New York, about an hour's drive away. More than 100 hedge funds, lightly regulated investment pools that cater to the rich, are now headquartered in Greenwich. Money's everywhere. Empty lots aren't. Land in prestigious neighborhoods is so scarce that it's often more valuable than whatever is built on it.” (Wall St. Journal, Apr. 12th)

Market Turning Around For $300,000 And Under Homes. Florida: “Showings and sales for homes priced at $300,000 or less have picked up over the past four or five months, realtors say… Multiple Listing Service: 899 single-family homes [are] for sale at $250,000 and under in the Naples area. In Bonita Springs there were 159 and in Fort Myers there were 1,406. On top of that, there are now hundreds of condos for sale in that range… in Q1’08 there were 192 homes sold through the Naples Sunshine MLS for $300,000 or less, compared to 119 a year ago, a more than 60% increase.” (Naples News, Apr. 12th)

Weekend Open House Tour: The Average Chelsea Apartment. “We're not quite done having fun with the new average price for a Manhattan apartment, roughly—gulp—$1.7 million. Last weekend, we looked at what that amount would show you in Manhattan's priciest enclave, Tribeca. This week, we head a little north, to a little neighborhood in the throws of overdevelopment called Chelsea. Click through the gallery to get all the deets on some Sunday open houses in the neighborhood at right around that $1.7M magic number.” (Curbed, Apr. 12th)

New Report Shows Steeper Drop in Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts. Texas: "Residential Strategies: Home starts [are] down in the Dallas-Fort Worth area 41% from a year ago [and down] 46% from the peak… Homebuilders started 4,890 houses in D-FW compared with 8,323 starts in Q1’07. In Q1’07, builders sold 6,793 houses, a third less than in Q1’08. About 8,700 completed and vacant new houses were on the market here at the end of March. That's down from almost 12,000 empty houses counted a year ago. Residential Strategies' Ted Wilson said 6,877 houses were still under construction in D-FW, "the lowest level of construction activity since the early 1990s." (Big Builder Online, Apr. 11th)

PMI Releases Spring 2008 Risk Index. “PMI Mortgage Insurance (PMI) Spring 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index, based on fourth-quarter OFHEO data: Thirteen of the nation's Top 50 MSAs are in PMI's highest risk rank, with a greater than 60% chance that home prices will be lower in two years. Risk remains largely concentrated in a number of MSAs in California and Florida, as well as in Las Vegas, NV, and Phoenix, AZ. Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home prices will be lower in two years. The MSAs with the highest risk scores were Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, CA (93%), Las Vegas (91%), and Orlando (85%).” (Big Builder Online, Apr. 10th)

Deutsche Bank (DB): Local Home Resale Analysis Shows How National This Downturn Is. “Deutsche Bank: Home price declines accelerated to -9%, the highest figure recorded to date. Declines were as high as -30% year/year in places like Palm Bay FL, Sacramento and Inland Empire. Florida and California remain the hardest hit states, with prices down -16% and -24%, respectively… "Heavily discounted distressed inventory explains both why volumes in Detroit and Sacramento improved, [10% and 11% year/year, respectively] and why pricing was off -25% and -31%, respectively." Volume spikes related to distressed inventory aren’t reflective of improved demand and with foreclosures still at more than 200,000 per month, price pressure should persist.” (Street Insider, Apr. 10th)

Dear Readers: Read anything you liked on this subject and didn't see it here? Why not post a link or a quote from the article in our comments section. Share the wealth! - Ed.

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This headline from the front page of the Sunday edition of Naples Daily News (FL)

Market Turning Around for $300,000 and Under Homes

www.naplesnews.com/new.../

Inside the 172 page paper there are no less than forty pages of real estate ads (new and used) plus a sixty page full color insert featuring hundreds of open houses and hundreds of other listings.