Airline Industry Remains in Denial over Looming Pilot Shortage

My recent post entitled a secular warning for the airlines elicited a lot of comments from the pilot community. The comments fall mainly into the category of “if there is a pilot shortage why am I so badly paid/poorly treated?”

Don't confuse secular with cyclical effects

My answers consist of several parts. First, don’t confuse the secular effect with the cyclical effect. With airlines from Aloha to Frontier going into Chapter 11, a possible Delta (DAL)-Northwest (NWA) merger in the works and the US economy in recession, there should be a surplus of pilots in the short term – that’s the cyclical effect. The longer term secular effect is found at the age demographics of most flying clubs that I have visited – there are few members in their 20s and 30s. Members below the age of 50 seem to be the “young pups”.

Some airlines have begun to address this problem by doing their own training, which takes a long time to pay off, or moving to the multi-crew pilot concept in which someone gets qualified as a member of a cockpit crew instead of a pilot. Under this scheme, it is possible to qualify as a member of a cockpit crew without being qualified as a private pilot. This solution seems to be just a case of the blind leading the blind.

Pilots reap what they sow

The history of poor pay for pilots is related to the number of people who love flying. There are many pilots who would still say that they have the greatest job in the world despite the mediocre pay scales, long hours away from home, etc. If you are willing to accept those conditions in exchange for the experience of flying for a living, who do you have to blame for that?

Still a lot of denial out there about the secular trend

Nevertheless, I continue to be disappointed by the reaction to this secular trend. A recent discussion of air travel in 10 years by a number of observers in the aviation industry was mostly a case of people talking their own “book”, an indication that the industry remain in denial over the looming pilot shortage.

Comments

[Bill Douglas]

I'm assuming you're speaking of U.S. airlines in this piece, in which case you are wholly mistaken on several points.

First, U.S. airlines haven't done their own ab initio training for decades, although it was once common. Some of those terribly experienced aging pilots that you speak of had nothing more than a private pilot certificate before being hired to Braniff, Eastern or United. The only airline that provides such training that I can think of is Delta at its Delta Connection Academy, and students pay dearly for the privilege.

Second, Multi-Crew Pilot License certification is not recognized by the FAA. It is an ICAO standard.

Third, Kit Darby of Air, Inc. has been blowing the pilot shortage horn for at least 20 years now. Somehow it's never here but "just over the next hill". Emerging markets may be desperate for pilots (I get offers to fly in China quite often even though I've been out of flying for 5 years) but there are plenty of young pups being churned out of Embry-Riddle, UND, Flightsafety, Delta Connection Academy, SIU, and hundreds of part 61 flight schools that are willing to be paid next to nothing to fly a pretty, new plane in this country. That's where you'll find future professional pilots. Flying clubs are for hobbyists.

Low pilot pay and poor working conditions for regional airlines is not cyclical. It's all too well established and will continue as long as kids fresh out of school are willing to shoot themselves and everyone else around them in the foot just to have "the best job in the world".

[mwa]

Industry consolidation and the growth of a new tier of cities without the abilility to support air service will more than take care of the shortage and perhaps lead to a surplus. Add to that Open skies and there is the repeat of what happened to the Railroads, Merchant Marines, and the Cruise Ship Industries. It will all be foreign owned in time.

[HR7]

I'm guessing this article is a joke? Or maybe you haven't been keeping up with current events in the U.S.. 6 airlines, yes 6, went bankrupt last week.At least 3 of which terminated operations. There's the DL/NW mega merger, soon to be followed by the UA/CO supermega merger. Don't forget about the cost of oil...you can expect to see hundreds of Regional Jets parked when their contracts come up with the majors if there's no relief in oil prices. So, in truth, there will be a large pilot surplus in the next few years to come. What you see at your "pilot club" is hardly a scientific sample of what the market looks like.