IBM: Is It Really a Tech Tell?

Lots of people crowing tonight about tech companies beating the street: CRM, INTC, and IBM in particular. So, what we are to glean? Has tech turned?

I like tech, or at least parts of tech, but I have trouble with an undiscerning tech sector call. Here's why:

• IBM: Good numbers tonight with a slight beat on earnings, but IBM isn't really a tech stock. It's a service stock, and an outsourcing story as much as anything. Further, it's insulated from early stages of any downturn via long-term contracts.
• INTC: Yes, the company met numbers, but it met reduced numbers on reduced guidance. In other words, things didn't decelerate faster than it thought they would, but that's not necessarily saying much.
• CRM: A solid story, and a tech story, but not a strong tell for the rest of enterprise tech. CRM is a SaaS company, with long-term contracts, considerably insulation from short-term vagaries in the market, and it's good cost-reduction story. Don't get me wrong, I like it, but I wouldn't read overmuch into it either.
• EBAY: I haven't had a lot of time to look at this one tonight, but it looks like a slight beat on revenues and earnings. If anyone had a closer look -- the stock is up 1% afterhours -- fill in the blanks below.
• GOOG: Let's see how GOOG does later this week. I still think it doesn't do as badly as people expect, but let's see.

Other views? Do INTC, IBM, etc. matter more than I think they do?

Comments

[Skin:]

You idiot! The market is begging for positives. We get a semblance of one and you shoot at it. Let the sum shine you fool. I could continue to mix metaphors, but you get the idea. Let maket equilibrium have its way.

2008 Apr 16 06:55 PM

[seeksome:]

The real date to see how things are going will be on the 23rd when Apple's numbers come out.To get Apple accessories cheap go to:
seeksomehting.com

2008 Apr 16 07:07 PM

[pochovilla:]

Is any company a proxy for tech, banking, housing or the economy? The talking heads will proclaim yes and goldilocks marches on. We live in a sound bite headline grabbing "entertainment" world. The lambs will follow. In reality each stock must be evaluated on it's own merits. Would I buy AMD because Intel looks attractive vs "revised expectations"? Would I buy ALU, NT because IBM had decent performance? Would I believe MER is a buy because the market has discounted all or most of the sub-prime issues? Some skepticism is good, cynicism is not. You're making good points. Come back to this in one month, two months, one year.

2008 Apr 17 08:46 AM

[Trade Radar...:]

I agree with your comments on IBM (see a post I wrote on the same subject last quarter: blog.trade-radar.com/2...)

In any case, tech as an industry is far too fragmented and comprised of so many small companies, these huge bellwether stocks can't really be representative.

2008 Apr 17 09:50 AM