Positioning For Further Dollar Weakness

The dollar has taken another step down of late. One position I have had for about ten months has been exposure to the Norwegian krone via what was two year paper when I bought it (I have disclosed this position quite a few times since I put it on).

When I first went in, USDNOK was around 5.95, I see it printing now around 4.98, which is a huge move (the smaller the number the stronger the Norwegian). Norway is a strong country economically, so that isn't so strange, but Hungary, for example, has a slew of problems - yet the greenback is down 8% YTD against the forint.

I have never been real sure about quantifying where the dollar could go. I think it is right to be positioned for more weakness, but I think the slope of the decline might be a little less going forward. I have thought that for a while, but that is the sort of thing most people don't need to right about (meaning magnitude).

I am warming up to the StateStreet International Inflation ETF (WIP). I bought it for a couple of new clients, I bought a few shares for my SEP and will probably integrate into more client accounts over the next few weeks.

If the dollar continues lower (regardless of how quickly), WIP should do well, but if the dollar goes up in a meaningful way it will be a big drag for WIP. My hope for this is that it would be a boring hold but that every few months I'll notice that its up a few percent or so.

If you look at the back test for it you will see a huge move up for this but I would not bet on that repeating itself.

Disclosure: Long WIP

Comments

[Ames Tiedeman:]

Dollar bulls are just dead wrong. Yes, maybe a bounce, but a dead cat bounce is all. One cannot decide it is good policy to create the conditions to make a 750 billion dollar trade deficit and then think one will have a strong currency. The world does not work like that any longer..

2008 Apr 18 09:26 AM

[User 143167:]

Everyone should know that this government has a WEAK dollar policy to inflate out of this debt crisis.
It is good for the US as weak dollar will shift wealth from $asset holders(foreigners) to $debtors(the US).
It is also good for the US corp. as a weak dollar during this very last year "created" exchange profits in S&P500 companies about 5% of their total earnings. The Fed also need to rasie interets to turn the greenback around. So guest what, the US market will tank much further if the dollar strengthens.

2008 Apr 18 10:17 AM

[winslow:]

The Fed and the US government have built itself into a box. I'm beginning to believe that this time "it really is different"!

With inflation zooming (not according to our government), we may be looking at a new era in the future.

What makes me worried, is that I'm usually an optomist.

2008 Apr 18 02:03 PM

[the final h...:]

just think: we could end up in parity with the zimbabwe dollar!

2008 Apr 19 09:02 AM

[Will Rahal:]

I think a rally in the US Dollar and a cyclical drop in commodity prices are imminent.
I have charted the extreme levels that some components of the PPi have reached.
Specifically, I took a look at the Finished Goods to Intermediate Materials ratio and also the Intermediate to Crude Materials ratio.
Both ratio are at historic extremes associated with reversals.

2008 Apr 19 11:17 AM

[R. Richard ...:]

One of the great "plays" is AFLAC (AFL -nyse) which holds principally Yen, earns mostly in Yen (whilst building a U.S supplemental book of business).

Disclosure: Writer holds, and has held since 1962, large position in AFL.

2008 Apr 19 02:35 PM

[E Nuff Sed:]

US Multinationals are a good play on the falling dollar. Just look at the profit growth of companies like Boeing, JNJ, PG etc.

2008 Apr 19 11:35 PM

[buyitcheap:]

I agree with Ames, I think we'll see a little more strengthening in the dollar (a la dead cat bounce) I don't see them lowering much more though which "may" put something of a floor under the $. Regardless, longer term, rates head higher either by policy or by force of the market - better play is short the 10 year -I'm long a double inverse 10 year fund.

2008 Apr 27 05:50 PM

[zenalgorithm:]

Will Rahal,

I partially agree with you.
I see the dollar having a dead cat bounce, but I suspect the commodities rally is finished. Stock traders lead the market by 6 months, but usually future traders lead by 9 months. I just get the feeling that future prices are headed for a major 3 month collapse in just a few more days.

2008 Apr 27 10:06 PM

[Vindicator:]

Re WIP,

Does anyone know what inflation indexes the underlying issues use for their TIP features? Are they all linked to inflation rates in the issuing country? Some other index? Thanks.

2008 Apr 28 07:26 PM