Will Apple Follow in Google's Footsteps?

Now that Google (GOOG) has blown away the Street with its March quarter results, can Apple (AAPL) do the same when it reports on Wednesday?

There is a growing belief on the Street that it just might.

This morning, Caris & Co.’s Shebly Seyrafi asserted that Apple is likely to beat expectations for the quarter, driven by strong Mac shipments and better than expected gross margins. He now sees revenue for the fiscal second quarter of $7.04 billion, up from $6.93 billion. He sees EPS of $1.12, up from $1.11, and above the consensus of $1.06. (The company previously guided to $6.8 billion and 94 cents; but Apple routinely lowballs its numbers.) He sees gross margins of 35%, above the guidance of 32%.

He is looking for shipments of 9 million iPods, 2.14 million Macs and 2 million iPhones.

For the June quarter, he sees revenue of $7.35 billion and EPS of $1.14; that’s above the Street at $7.14 billion and $1.10. Seyrafi maintains an Above Average rating and $170 price target on the stock.

Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey this morning raised his target price on Apple to $185 from $175, asserting that strong Mac sales and a better product mix should offset sluggish iPhone and iPod sales and allow the company to report March quarter results “strong enough to satisfy the Street.” With the 3G iPhone launch an estimated two months away, he advises buying the stock here.

Bailey raised his March quarter EPS estimate to $1.09 from $1.02, and above the Street at $1.06, to reflect better gross margin from component cost declines and “a higher-end skew within each product line.” He expects gross margin at 34.7%, flat with the December quarter. The company is due to report results on Wednesday. He raised his June quarter estimate to $1.12, from $1.05, above the Street at $1.10. Bailey sees March quarter unit sales of 2.1 million Macs; he sees 1.4 million iPhones. He sees calendar 2008 sales of 11 million iPhones, ahead of the company’s much-publicized 10 million unit estimate.

Apple today is up $7.16, or 4.63%, at $161.62 (2:15 p.m. EDT).

Comments

[Theodore De...:]

Yes I think you're right AAPL is going to surprise everyone!

2008 Apr 18 03:09 PM

[User 169146:]

Im telling you.. Eric Savitz looks like the Woz.

2008 Apr 18 04:01 PM

[triznix:]

Why is there a chart for at&t on this page??

2008 Apr 18 05:44 PM

[TanToday:]

So .... AFTER mistakenly trashing Apple, on NOTHING at all, for three months, all the ANAL-ysts are quickly rushing NOW, to pretend that NOTHING they had been warning about, cautioning on, or saying....is worth squat?

Quickly, FAST...UP YOUR ESTIMATES, so come Wednesday, when the earning show a VERY handsome upside, you all don't look like the baboons that you have been now, with ABSOLUTELY no bad news, none, zippo, using to push the stock down for whatever ego reasons were at work here.

As I have said now for months, in the old days, such sorts would rip open a chicken, spread out the innards, and mutter some prophecy. From what I have observed with the ones following Appl, talking the stock down and down...the gizzard watchers were actually MORE credible.

At least they called themselves WIZARDS, instead of Analysts.

2008 Apr 18 06:51 PM

[Danthemason:]

Tan Today you really give them too much credit. Ditto your post.

2008 Apr 18 09:50 PM

[XamaX:]

TanToday, it's not for ego reasons. Money makes the world go round, world go round, world go round...

2008 Apr 18 11:53 PM

[steveballmer:]

All of this is simply propaganda!

2008 Apr 19 12:56 AM

[tom1234:]

the WIZZARD ----yes has made a lot of people look very foolish ---and JOBS will continue to do so ---o ye of little faith -hahahhaah

2008 Apr 19 09:52 AM

[deaverb:]

Momentum is incredible behind Apple, its brand, its products, its stores, and fighting the dark force--made even more dark by the Vista mess. If Apple stays the course, they'll leave MSN in their wake. A Mac is back in my house (after being gone since the late 80s; several iPhones and iPods; iPhones in our business; will Macs be next--we kept our XPs thank goodness; and only use a Vista for testing purposes). Go Apple!

2008 Apr 19 09:55 AM

[wallawallab...:]

Eric's been bashing and waterboarding Apple for months. Been quoting Toni S. for too long. Routinely published negative news every down day for Apple. Doesn't want to look foolish now. Guess what? TOO LATE!

2008 Apr 19 11:34 AM

[Bill West:]

Don't know if it means anything but I went to my local Best Buy today and spoke with a friend I know in the computer area about Apple products. He says that the sales have been very strong. Air, MacBook Pro and some of the add-ons like dvd drives etc. There always seem to be people at the Mac table as well.

The Mac buzz is definitely out there, does it translate into blowout earning on Wednesday.........we'l... see....

Disclosures- Windows XP owner. Apple stock and options holder.

2008 Apr 19 07:03 PM

[TanToday:]

My guess is Eric has what is colloqually called a "Hard...**" for Apple.

Maybe someone didn't hire him long ago, or some other undisclosed reason. But having watched these columns now for months, it is VERY apparent, that any "bad" news { real OR IMAGINED } is highlighted and reported on immediately, and with due alacrity.

THE REAL unreported story is the RETAIL END of things. With over 200 stores now, with an AVERAGE sales of over $4,000 / SF, when the next nearest retailler, Tiffany's does around $2k/SF and stores like Best Buy consider pro's eek out $1.5k/SF you have a LITERAL tsunami of consumers out there, frustrated with WinDoze, and Vista/Vomit who go to the Apple store, and spend hours being "cool" playing with this or that, and seeing that for a mere $99 they can have a PERSONAL ONE ON ONE TRAINER, for one hour per week, teaching them anything at all they want to learn....that works out to $2 an HOUR gang...and they start smiling, and the WALLETS fly open.

Not to mention the AMAZING operating system that converts 85% of first time users with HOURS to Apple wannabe's, and the SYNERGY...yeah that is what EVERYONE misses, every product feeds into every other product, which buttresses the desire for more gizmo's that work with ALL your other gizmo's without HOURS of fiddling, just buy it, plug it in, and BANG, everything Apple you already own WORKS with it!

THIS is the real sleeper here, the SYSTEM, the more you have the more you want, the better it works, and the $$$ MONEY $$$ rolls in and on....

Frankly, the day that the ANAL-ysts stop look at the PARTS and seize on the whole, the sky is the limit.

2008 Apr 19 09:57 PM