Gaming Demand: Halo 3 Snipes GTA4; Wii Still Dominates Consoles

In less than two weeks, crime will run rampant in the streets. Crime bosses will come to power, assaults will be made with deadly weapons, and thousands of autos will undoubtedly be stolen. Luckily the only thing harmed will be pixels. On April 29th, Rockstar’s (TTWO) newest episode in the Grand Theft Auto series hits shelves. The hype around Grand Theft Auto 4 has been immense, but the real question is: does hype translate into sales?

One indicator of future sales is pre-launch demand – not people watching trailers or investigating rumors about the game, but those actually exhibiting shopping activity. Despite being available on both the PS3 and Xbox 360, demand is nowhere near that of 2007’s most anticipated game, Halo 3. Click to enlarge:

The chart above compares pre-launch demand of these two blockbuster games for the 15 weeks leading up to each game’s respective launch:

• During this crucial demand-building period, Halo 3 attracted an average of 4x the shoppers of Grand Theft Auto 4.
• As each game’s launch grew closer, demand for both game ramped up. In fact, in the last two weeks, GTA 4 has closed the demand gap…but not fully. Halo 3’s launch demand, in the same week was only 140% higher.

Has the Wii felt the burn by not offering the Grand Theft Auto Title?

Hardly. Sales for the Wii console have been reported on at length, and demand tells a similar story. The chart below shows Compete’s estimate of monthly in-market video console demand based on the number of U.S. consumers observed shopping online for each console* to console sales as reported by NDP group. Click to enlarge:

But there’s an interesting relationship between sales and online shopping activity: sales are capped at the total number of available units. Especially during this holiday season, a lot of demand for the Wii went unfulfilled.

• Demand for the Wii spiked to nearly 3.5 million shoppers in December of 2007, a growth of 62% year over year.
• Despite just barely edging Xbox 360 out in terms of December sales, the Wii crushed it rival in terms of demand. During both November and December Nintendo’s console attracted 2x more shoppers than the 360 (or the PS3).
• As the holiday season ended, the large gap between Wii demand and sales as shopping activity subsides, and more consoles become available for purchase.

It’s significant that the Wii is experiencing substantially higher demand than it did during it’s launch period, typically the case and indicative of a more significant trend. The escalating number of shoppers implies that many people are still “discovering” the Wii, and the massive volumes of traffic seem to reach beyond the “gamer” demographic. As gaming is clearly going mainstream, the intuitive design and social elements of the platform have consumers turning to the Wii in droves.

Comments

[Mark Berger:]

Where is this data sourced from? Absolutely no sources whatsoever. I have read numerous articles that dispute every single one of these figures. Play.com have said sales are off the charts and that pre-sale demand is over 2 times greater than Halo 3. I think you should do some more research...

2008 Apr 20 04:53 PM

[Jalex:]

If this is indeed true, then it is quite significant. The numbers projected for first-week sales of 'GTA IV' did seem near unbelievable (though, still possible).
I'm still thinking it's going to be a game that continualy sells well. Something that stays amongst the top three games of the week for the rest of the year or so, rather than one that makes a majority of it's sales within the first week.
Also, I know a lot less parents wouldn't mind so much buying any of the 'Halo' games for their teen, whereas many parents have a big problem with the GTA games. I think that will contribute (somewhat) to sales.

2008 Apr 20 05:41 PM

[Chandler Lutz:]

Very interesting article, but what does "exhibiting shopping activity" mean? Does that mean pre-orders or what?...I think all readers would appreciate it if you elaborated on your data a little further along with where you found it...so we could use it too...

2008 Apr 20 05:56 PM

[Mark Berger:]

Several analysts have told Daily Variety that they expect Grand Theft Auto IV to possibly exceed $400 million in sales at launch, a figure which would see it eclipse the $300 million sales mountain achieved by Microsoft's Halo 3.

$400 million would give the game a chance of topping the current No.1 film debut of all time, currently set at $404 million by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.

The $400 million sales figure is backed up by leading retailer Blockbuster. CEO Jim Keyes told Variety that Grand Theft Auto IV is likely to do "two times the volume" that Halo 3 achieved for his chain.

However, GameStop senior vp of merchandising Bob McKenzie told Variety that GTA 4 is currently slightly behind the record-setting Xbox 360 title.

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Speaking to MCV, Play.com's head of games Gian Luzio has revealed that Grand Theft Auto IV is "far and away the biggest selling title" he's ever seen on PS3.

Demand has been so high for the title that retailers are struggling to keep up with pre-orders. However, Luzio predicts Play.com will have more stock for the game's release on Tuesday, April 29.

Luzio added: "This is the biggest ever title for PS3 by a long way - and probably 360 as well. I've been really blown away by how quickly it's sold on PS3.

"Sales have gone crazy and have proven to be a real hardware driver already. We've sold out now, but will be getting in more stock as soon as it becomes available.

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Janco Partners' Mike Hickey recently predicted the game would sell nearly six million in its first week, racking up $360 million in revenues and potentially stealing thunder from Iron Man at the box office.

Now Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst has done Hickey one better, predicting (as part of his massive fiscal '09 outlook report) that GTA IV will be the No. 1 selling game in all of 2008 with a total of 13 million copies sold.

2008 Apr 20 07:40 PM

[Richard Alv...:]

Pre-orders sales are higher because Halo 3 had 2 limited editions SKUs. It was great marketing on Microsoft's part.

2008 Apr 20 07:52 PM

[vril:]

Does anyone still play that crappy game Halo? If you have the money to brainwash the public then you will do it to get what you want.

2008 Apr 20 08:15 PM

[Jimmy Goodwin:]

Ricky Gervais is in GTA4, of course it will outsell Halo 3.

2008 Apr 21 07:08 AM

[Th3InfamousI:]

Remember Halo 3 was for XBOX/PC only! This is across Multiple Platforms. GTA4 trumps Halo3 First week!

2008 Apr 28 01:55 PM

[russian mob...:]

HALO 3 Was for XBOX 360 only and not for pc...
The only way GTA 4 will outsell it is because is multi platform.

HALO is a really good game best FPS of all time..............

2008 May 07 01:17 AM