Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Fifth Third Bancorp, Blackstone, Capital One, Keycorp And Morgan Stanley

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Includes: BX, COF, FITB, KEY, MS
by: John Scherr

Expected financial sector earnings reports and the whisper number impact for Thursday, July 19th:

Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB): The whisper number is $0.34, one cent behind the analysts' estimate. FITB has a 58% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 18 of the 31 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within 10 trading days of these 31 earnings reports is +0.6%. The strongest price movement of +3.6% comes within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.7% within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Last quarter the company reported earnings five cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 7.5% loss in 30 trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX): The whisper number is $0.18, two cents ahead of the analysts' estimate. BX has a 0% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 0 of the 2 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within 10 trading days of these two earnings reports is -1.1%. The strongest price movement of -7.5% comes within 10 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Last quarter the company reported earnings one cent short of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 14.8% loss in 20 trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Capital One (NYSE:COF): The whisper number is $1.36, seven cents ahead of the analysts' estimate. COF has a 68% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 19 of the 28 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within 10 trading days of these 28 earnings reports is +0.5%. The strongest price movement of +1.6% comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.0% within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Last quarter the company reported earnings eleven cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 9.1% loss in 20 trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Keycorp (NYSE:KEY): The whisper number is $0.19, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate. KEY has a 62% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 18 of the 29 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within 10 trading days of these 29 earnings reports is +2.2%. The strongest price movement of +3.4% comes within 10 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +6.3% within 10 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (positive reactor). Last quarter the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 7.6% loss in 30 trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): The whisper number is $0.44, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate. MS has an 80% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 8 of the 10 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within 10 trading days of these 10 earnings reports is -1.2%. The strongest price movement of -11.2% comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +4.3% within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (opposite reactor). Last quarter the company reported earnings 26 cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 29.1% loss in 30 trading days. Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report will help you make better trades. Many investors believe that beating or missing the whisper number has the greatest impact on stock movement. If the number is exceeded, the stock is rewarded and prices move higher. If the number is missed, the stock is punished and prices move lower. Unlike the analysts estimate, the 'whisper number' from WhisperNumber.com has actually been proven to have a greater impact on stock movement.

Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing 'crowd sourced estimates' for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. The 'crowd' that provides us with whisper numbers are primarily individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site.

We are an independent financial research firm. We have no affiliations with investment banks, investment management, or corporate organizations that could compromise our data or analysis. (So no relationships with the bad guys or so-called professional analysts).

As for our data collection, methodology, and price reaction accuracy: for the past 15 years we have remained consistent with data collection and methodology, and our data has proven itself over that time. We also have two independent academic studies supporting the premise that investor expectations for quarterly earnings (our whisper numbers) provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and have a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates.

A company's 'price reaction' to the whisper number expectation is the key - on average companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report.

According to the Wall Street Journal, "positive surprises are becoming so common they are nearly universal. They are predetermined in a cynical tango-clinch between companies and the analysts who cover them. All the numbers are gamed at this point." This is why the proprietary whisper number we provide is a more useful and viable alternative to analysts estimates.

All trading involves risk and the information presented is not intended to be a recommendation of any kind.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.