Existing Home Sales Charts

Existing Home Sales came in at 4.93 million for the month of March -- the third worst reading in the economic indicator's history. The indicator fell 1.99% month over month, less worse than the expected -2.2%. The indicator fell 19.31% year over year versus expectations of -19.48%.

As shown in the table at right and chart below, the year-over-year changes are getting slightly less worse than they have been in recent months, but they still have a long way to go before a mention of "things are getting better" should surface.

However, things have gotten better for homebuilding stocks.

Later this week, New Home Sales for March will be released, and next Tuesday we'll get the updated S&P/Case-Shiller numbers.

Comments

[Tim Plaehn]

Looking at the middle chart, it appears sales were steady in the 5.0-5.5 million range from 1999 to end of 2001. It looks like sales will stabilize again at those levels. Comparing year over year as we ramp down from the excess of 2004-2006 does not accomplish much except let us know a lot of homes were sold then.

[Griz]

The Feb 2.86% increase was just a "Spring Blip" as confirmed by March's -1.99% decline , thus continuing the downtrend. I think volume contraction will continue for quite some time...

["Magazine-Cover-Indicator"Indicator....]

Tim -- they could stabilize in a range near there eventually I'd guess. But if as you can see from the graph, most would-be buyers jumped in prematurely (in the bubble, afraid of waiting and building up a down payment, etc), then the buyers would be used up temporarily, so that first time buyers are below long term average for a while.

[robbin]

I agree with your basic opinion. However ITB is at a low and this is where you should buy not sell. Buy low sell high. It will be a waiting game with great potential to the upside.