Apple (AAPL) will be announcing earnings this week, and Nokia (NOK) announced last week, and its guidance was cautious. Research In Motion (RIMM) already announced an excellent quarter.

My sense is that all three companies will continue to do very well given the large convergence device movement that is sweeping over our electronics-driven lives. Laptops will be abandoned in favor of these devices.

This, my friends, is the future, behind which the iPhone has gathered momentum.

A quick look at the market shares tells an interesting story. RIM’s BlackBerry still retains 42% market share. Palm (PALM) has 16% of the smart phone market - down 2 points from January - and has dropped sharply over the past year. In January 2007, it owned almost a third of the market. The iPhone is gaining ground, and according to InfoWorld, this is now a two-horse race:

ChangeWave also regularly polls consumers to measure how happy they are with their current smart phones. There, too, Apple scored high, and well above RIM. More than three-fourths of iPhone owners — 79 percent — said they were ‘very satisfied’ with the device. RIM took second place with 54 percent, while LG (40 percent), Sanyo (40 percent), and Nokia (37 percent) rounded out the top five.

Well, I am not sure about that. I still think Nokia and Samsung are forces to reckon with, and in the upcoming years, as the convergence device movement expands out of Apple and RIM’s comfort zone of the American elite, the game is going to change. In the emerging markets, especially, many consumers will be banking on the convergence device as their primary computer, and will bypass the PC altogether. It is the same thing that happened when, for example, Indian consumers bypassed landlines to jump directly to mobile telephony.

In other words, the above analysis of the market landscape is very American elite-centric, and does not reflect any understanding of emerging market dynamics. Remember, there’s a very real chance that the next billion computer users would be convergence device users.

Sramana Mitra

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This article has 13 comments! Add yours below...

This article has 13 comments:

  • Ames Tiedeman
    Apr 23 09:49 AM
    AAPl is the one to watch. Europe is not moving the iPhone.
  • Ken Singh
    Apr 23 11:45 AM
    ALL ARE WARNED: "RIMM" One ponzi Business Model under seize. All Nations wake up to National Security threat from Blackberry spy and snooping secrets........................

    It is one Manipulated scam bubble operated by RBC/TD/AMTECH in sync with Insider Crooks.

    All negative news on Research In Motion is Blacked out. Even CNBC & CRAMMER CROOK like old Dan Dorfman Scam Involved in this Pump Scam for the Stock.

    Here is Latest from India

    No to Blackberry; Govt tells Tatas

    Press Trust of India / New Delhi April 23, 2008



    The government has asked Tata Teleservices not to offer Blackberry services unless the required monitoring system being insisted for by security agencies are put in place.



    “Keeping in view of the security implication involved, the licensee (company) is directed not to connect or provide or run the Blackberry e-mail and mobile messenger services unless the required monitoring system to the satisfaction of the security agencies are in place and the master key and algorithm are deposited with the licensor," DoT said in a letter to Tatas.


    Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) limited had sought permission for launching Blackberry services, saying other leading operators have been offering services without meeting the above mentioned security clauses.


    "...Non-compliance of instructions by any other operator in breach of terms and conditions of the licence cannot be a valid ground for according permission to offer Blackberry services," DoT said.


    DoT and the Ministry of Home Affairs have been battling with the Blackberry licensor Research-in-Motion (RIM) also mobile service providers like Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Reliance Communications to put in place a system to intercept data sent using Blackberry technology.



  • Ken Singh
    Apr 23 11:47 AM
    what is change wave?


    A pump and Dump news letter circulated to how many?

  • Ken Singh
    Apr 23 11:55 AM
    I have proven wall street scam Pump Bubble scams and busts have always been right on the money

    Net2Phone...even AT&T got scammed for Billion Dollar Cash

    What happened to Metricom?

    Marvel Commiunications...MRVL...scam

    BRCM...Henry Crooks scam

    BRCD..Reyes in Jail now

    I can go on...............

    Beware folks and read these creative writer pumpers with grain of Salt.


    Remember" A classic pump scams by writters are unleashed to dustribute scam bubble stock bags to retail Investors.....


    That is how Wall Street operates??
  • Ken Singh
    Apr 23 02:26 PM
    Here is new findings from LION LABS

    "RIMM" management DNA= Extreme Greedy Crooks

    and here is the proof:

    Management Crooks keep repeating Blackberry Pearl Release relentlessly every day

    but will not update Investors about Blackberry Ban put in Place by INDIA

    ((((ENRON REPLAY BOOK SCAM IN MOTION=RIMM))

    DUMP This Scam Bubble now

    www.pushhamburger.com

  • Ken Singh
    Apr 23 02:41 PM
    Enter your comment here WASHINGTON MUST HIRE ME: READ THIS :

    I CAN NAIL OR CROOKS VERY FAST

    WASHINGTON (Reuters)
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - International organized crime groups control "significant positions" in global energy and strategic materials and are expanding holdings in the U.S. materials sector, the U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday.

    A strategy on fighting organized crime released by the department also says such groups manipulate securities exchanges and conduct financial fraud to steal billions of dollars. It says they systematically corrupt public officials, use computer networks to target victims, and provide logistical support to terrorists and foreign intelligence services.

    "The activities of transnational and national organized criminal enterprises are increasing in scope and magnitude as these groups continue to strengthen their networking with each other to expand their operations," said FBI Deputy Director John S. Pistole
  • bryanz
    Apr 23 04:31 PM
    The idea of giving up a laptop for one an iPhone makes sense for some people, but those people probably didn't really need laptops in the first place. If someone had a laptop because they needed to read email in the airport, then yeah, you could swap out the laptop for a smart phone. But until you can plug peripherals into the iPhone and somehow magically give it 15" screen, laptops will still be an essential component of business mobility.

    BTW------------
    Ken Singh = SPAM... this guy is on every AAPL or RIMM post he can find copying & pasting conspiracy theory nonsense. Go put on your tinfoil hat and unplug your computer, weirdo.
  • Ken Singh
    Apr 24 09:18 AM
    Business Line
    New Blackberry connections may take some more time
    Thomas K. Thomas
    Thursday, 24 April , 2008, 10:23


    New Delhi: The Department of Telecom may ask existing mobile operators to stop giving new Blackberry connections until the security concerns are addressed fully.

    DoT has also told the new operators, who want to launch Blackberry services, to hold on to their plans till Research In Motion complies with the Government’s monitoring requirement.

    Click here for more India business stories | Get the latest Sensex update

    Senior DoT sources said that existing operators who have already launched Blackberry services may be allowed to provide service to existing users, keeping in mind the interest of consumers.

    They, however, added that the Government may impose a penalty on these operators for violating the licence norms.

    “The licence clearly states that operators will have to provide monitoring facility to security agencies. There is not a single telecom service in the country that is allowed without meeting this criterion.

    Security concerns will have to be met by RIM before Blackberry service can be permitted. If operators are offering any service contrary to this, then they are violating the licence norms and necessary action may be taken,” said a Government source.

    DoT has already refused permission to Tata Teleservices for launching Blackberry services.

    Tatas have, meanwhile, told DoT that it is unfair to ban only the new players who want to offer the services.

    Interim solution

    One of the stakeholders indicated that DoT may be working towards an interim solution whereby operators may be asked to keep data of all the traffic routed through the Blackberry devices until RIM sets up a server in the country.

    The controversy had broken out after security agencies expressed concern that they were unable to track communication on Blackberry due to the high encryption code.

    As per Indian regulations companies have to submit a decryption key with Government agencies if the encryption code is higher than 40 bit.

    Blackberry has much higher encryption which makes it difficult for security agencies to break into the network in case they want to trace any transmission. So far RIM, the promoter of Blackberry, has refused to give the decryption codes.

    Click here for more India business stories | Get the latest Sensex update

    Talks on with RIM

    DoT sources said that discussions are on with RIM to find a solution to the problem without compromising on both security issues and consumer interest. A final decision on the future course of action will be taken only after RIM comes back with its plan for addressing the security concerns over decryption.
  • Ken Singh
    Apr 24 09:19 AM
    Can you challenge these facts

    India news Blackout by RIMM management and Media crooks under the RIMM ticker feed.....??

  • bryanz
    Apr 24 05:40 PM
    "Can you challenge these facts

    India news Blackout by RIMM management and Media crooks under the RIMM ticker feed.....?? "

    No I certainly can't because they aren't FACTS, they're the deranged rantings of a mad man who chooses to flood posts with comments that are 10x as long as the original article. Go set up a blog and beg for people to read it instead of flooding this site with copied & pasted articles and overly-biased rants.
  • Ken Singh
    Apr 24 09:34 PM
    bryanz:Can you challenge these facts

    India news Blackout by RIMM management and Media crooks under the RIMM ticker feed.....??
    Here is proof from FBI Deputy Chief Comments

    I CAN NAIL OR CROOKS VERY FAST

    WASHINGTON (Reuters)
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - International organized crime groups control "significant positions" in global energy and strategic materials and are expanding holdings in the U.S. materials sector, the U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday.

    A strategy on fighting organized crime released by the department also says such groups manipulate securities exchanges and conduct financial fraud to steal billions of dollars. It says they systematically corrupt public officials, use computer networks to target victims, and provide logistical support to terrorists and foreign intelligence services.

    "The activities of transnational and national organized criminal enterprises are increasing in scope and magnitude as these groups continue to strengthen their networking with each other to expand their operations," said FBI Deputy Director John S. Pistole
  • bryanz
    Apr 24 11:34 PM
    Ok, here's the problem... first off none of these are really "facts" they're observations...
    1. RIM sold only 2.2 times as many phones as Apple, a company that had never sold a phone before.
    --Is this is a quarter or over the life of the iPhone so far? To reverse your logic, a new phone with tons of hype from one of the best branded companies in the world failed to outsell a phone manufacturer that supposedly "overestimated its ability to connect to its customers" and "has spread itself to thin."

    2. RIM sold through 325 carriers, Apple through very few
    --Uh, whoopity doo. This may very well be a "fact" but your rants and raves (maybe you should post on craigslist!) don't really show the relevance. Is this supposed to tie into the previous post and say tell us that AAPL outsells RIMM on the carriers that AAPL has agreed to supply with iPhones? Maybe that's because those ARE the only carriers that you can get an iPhone on... hmm.

    3. RIM has overestimated its ability to connect with consumers.
    You need a great mouse trap to make consumer stick to a device for the future and iTunes & Video Download service is the magic key
    --This is absolutely not a fact, it's pure conjecture and if you believe it's a fact then you're delusional. The business world is still RIMMs and Apple's iPhone SDK and ActiveSync isn't going to convince a company that already purchased 50,000 BlackBerrys to dump them in the trash and tie themselves to AT&T. It's simply not going to happen on any wide scale. Small shops that are just getting started or can afford to scrap a few BBs, maybe.


    4. RIM has spread itself too thin with Push Email and SMS and Browsing interface stinks.
    --RIMM has allowed all types of software to be developed for their phone for a long time and no one is stuck using the web browser. Push email was RIMMs cup of tea, how did they spread themselves too thin with that? And what does SMS have to do with it? RIMM didn't develop text messaging.

    For the record, I'm long AAPL and RIMM. I want them both to succeed and I think they will both continue to for the foreseeable future. You apparently didn't like your BlackBerry or you've got a big short position in RIMM because you dump on them like no one's business.

    The thing is your mindless rants and your copies of obscure "Reuters" articles don't impress anyone. They just take up space on the page and you look like a comment troll. So add something meaningful to the conversation or go find a yahoo board to spam.
  • User 18120
    Apr 27 03:42 PM
    NOW CANADA GOVT. SCREAMS FOR THESE CROOKS

    INDIA HAS SHOWN THE WORLD , THIS IS SPY SCAM ONE PONZI WONDER AND NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT TO ALL NATIONS


    Canada questions India's approach on Blackberry imbroglio
    27 Apr, 2008, 1404 hrs IST, PTI

    NEW DELHI: Amid a raging controversy about threat to national security from Blackberry services, Canada has questioned the DoT's approach to resolving the issue and also expressed doubt whether those involved on the Indian side are actually empowered to settle the matter.

    In a letter to Communication and IT Minister A Raja, Canadian High Commissioner David M Malone said: "We and RIM (Canada-based Blackberry vendor Research-in-Motion) need to understand who in the government of India is empowered to resolve this issue. This is necessary in order to ensure the right representative from RIM at the table.

    "The discussion managed by DoT to date have inspired little confidence that those involved on the Indian side are actually empowered to settle the matter as Indian government's demands of RIM keep expanding while media leaks proliferate, some of them very damaging from a security perspective...

    "Potential terrorists are now aware, because of these leaks, of technical issues unknown to most of us previously," he said in the latter dated April 17.

    Raja had last week said that the issue would be resolved within a week but going by the communication of Canadian High Commissioner, it looks that both parties -- DoT and RIM -- are yet to even agree upon who from India would be negotiating.

    Blackberry services came under a cloud ever since security agencies expressed fears that terror groups could use the service, including e-mail feature, to communicate without being monitored by Indian agencies as the data is routed through servers abroad.

    According to sources, the Indian security agencies have been insisting for placing the Blackberry server in India so that the contents sent to and from Blackberry handset could be monitored, if required.

    From the trade perspective, the focus on RIM by DoT would appear to be discriminatory given the myriad of other technologies available and offering similar security features, Malone said
    economictimes.indiatimes.com/Canada_ques...
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