Paul Kedrosky

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This is striking stuff from courier company's UPS's earnings conference call:

Chief Executive Scott Davis:

UPS's first quarter results illustrate the dramatic slowing in the U.S. economy. At our investor conference on March 12th, we told you that volume growth in January had been up 3%. But in the six weeks prior to the conference, it had been negative. We also said if these trends persisted through March, we would not achieve the earnings guidance we had provided for the quarter. [The] trends did continue. Many have become sharply more negative in the last two months. ... The great unknowns are the severity and the duration of the current economic slowdown. Many of our customers have tightened their belts resulting in a shift away from our premium air products to ground shipments. [Emphasis added]

Move along folks. No recession here.

This article has 4 comments:

  •  
    The numbers I have is -20 GDP contraction over a three year span. Does that qualify as a depression? It's not just the subprime mess, it's the fact of national debt and whom was funding it, foreigners. Foreigners are placing there money into commodities instead of U.S. Treasuries as they had once done during recessions. I could go on and on to factor in all my data into the -20 GDP of this perfect economic storm. However, I will say the Fed should leave rates and bailout strategies alone and wisely invest Treasury into energy independence. Investors globally would invest in America again because it's simple: You give the global customer what they will buy and right now that is affordable energy and food (which of course are intertwined)
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 23 08:21 PM
    I agree completely. It's time to start playing hardball, and transition our economy using new energy technology
    Reply
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    Apr 24 03:38 AM
    Who would have thunk 7-8 years ago that the current president, whose family business is oil, would allow energy sources to become so scarce?
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 24 03:08 PM
    Here's another quote from the call that was interesting:

    "Asia to the US is perhaps not as robust as it was but Asia to Europe remains robust. "

    Speaking about shipments of course.
    Reply
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