Baidu Sticking To Strong Reversal Trend In Earnings-Driven After-Hours Trade

| About: Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)

When Baidu (BIDU) reports results today, we've noted in the past longs should be watching the evening downside moves while shorts should be keen to eye the upside trade. That strategy remains relevant in recent trade.

BIDU has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 9 of the last 27 quarters we've tracked. In six of those quarters, or 67% of the time, the stock has seen its evening downside narrow or reverse direction in the following day's regular session.

On the plus side, BIDU has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 18 of the 27 quarters tracked in our database. In eight of those quarters, or 44% of the time, the stock has moved further into the green in the follow-on regular session.

Baidu is due with its Q2 results in the after-hours session, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to post a mean profit of $1.11 per share on revenue of $856 million.

  • On April 24, 2012, BIDU tumbled 10.3% in night trade despite meeting Q1 revenue estimates, beating on EPS, and setting its guidance in line with expectations. The stock narrowed its downside sharply the next day, closing the April 25 regular session off 0.7%.
  • On Feb. 16, 2012, BIDU edged up 1.2% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates. The stock reversed direction the next day and fell 3.5% by the close on Feb. 17.
  • On Oct. 27, 2011, BIDU advanced 6.8% in evening action after Q3 results topped estimates. The stock narrowed its gain the next day, ending the Oct. 28 regular session up 4.5%.
  • On July 25, 2011, BIDU gained 6.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 earnings expectations. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, ending the July 26 regular session up 5%.
  • On April 27, 2011, BIDU slipped 0.3% in evening trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing the April 28 regular session down 1.9%.
  • On Jan. 31, 2011, BIDU surged 8% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Feb. 1 regular session up 9.3%.
  • On Oct. 21, 2010, BIDU gained 1.8% in evening trade after beating on Q3 and setting its guidance above expectations. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the Oct. 22 regular session up 4.6%.
  • On July 21, 2010, BIDU advanced 3.6% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It lost most of that gain the following day, closing the July 22 regular session up 1.5%.
  • On April 28, 2010, BIDU surged 13.5% in after-hours action after beating Q1 estimates and setting its guidance above the Street view. It added to its gains the following day, closing the April 29 regular session up 14.2%.
  • On Feb. 9, 2010, BIDU advanced 8.6% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside in the Feb. 10 regular session, ending up 10.1%.
  • On Oct. 26, 2009, BIDU tumbled 12.9% in evening trade after missing revenue expectations and setting disappointing guidance. The stock narrowed its downside slightly the next day, ending off 11.3% on Oct. 27.
  • On July 23, 2009, BIDU declined 2.3% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock reversed course the following day, ending the July 24 regular session up 7.6%.
  • On April 27, 2009, BIDU advanced 4.4% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost its gain the following day, declining 1.6% by the close on April 28.
  • On Feb. 18, 2009, the stock edged up 0.8% after reporting revenue in line to above the Street but missing by a penny with earnings. Shares gained 3.5% the next day.
  • On Oct. 22, 2008, BIDU declined 2.8% in after-hours trade despite posting better-than-expected results and issuing in-line to better guidance. The stock pushed deeper south the following day, losing 14.6% by the Oct. 23 close.
  • On July 23, 2008, BIDU gained 12.9% in night trade after besting Q2 expectations. It recorded a fatter gain the next day, rising 14.8% by the close on July 24.
  • On April 24, 2008, BIDU gained 1.6% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 estimates and guiding above the then-current Street view for Q2. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the April 25 regular session up 6.3%.
  • On Feb. 13, 2008, the stock gained 6.2% during evening trading after beating with Q4 results but guiding below the Street with Q1. The stock gained 1.3% the next day.
  • On Oct. 25, 2007, the stock fell 3.9% during evening trading after BIDU beat the Street with Q3 results. Shares reversed to close up 5.7% the next day.
  • On July 25, 2007, BIDU jumped 18.4% in evening activity after beating Q2 sales estimates and forecasting Q3 sales above Street views. Shares, though, eased off and closed the next regular session up 14%.
  • On April 26, 2007, BIDU soared 21.6% in night trade after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 above Street views. However, shares gave back some of those gains the next day to close the regular session up 13.9%.
  • On Feb. 14, 2007, BIDU edged up 0.8% in after-hours trade on the heels of meeting on revenue, beating on EPS, and issuing disappointing guidance. The stock turned to the red on Feb. 15, losing 7.6% between the bells.
  • On Oct. 31, 2006, the stock fell 3.6% in the evening hours after the company beat with its latest earnings but guided below the Street's view. The loss narrowed slightly, to 2.8% by the close of trading the following day.
  • On July 26, 2006, BIDU slid 14% in after hours despite beating Q2 expectations. The shares tumbled even further the next day, closing the regular session down 20.8%.
  • On May 9, 2006, BIDU soared 22.5% in evening trade after beating Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 sales above Street views. Shares climbed higher the next day, ending the regular session up 36.8%.
  • On February 21, 2006, BIDU gained 12.4% in night trade when the company topped Q4 estimates and said Q1 sales would beat expectations. Shares though, lost their momentum and closed 5.4% higher in the next regular hours trading session.
  • On October 26, 2005, BIDU plunged 15.6% in after hours when the company beat Q3 sales expectations but missed on earnings. The shares recovered some ground the next day, closing the regular session down 13.2%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.