eBay Watch: Kijiji, StumbleUpon and Listings Galore

eBay (EBAY) Q2 Week 3 Listings Update

According to JPMorgan analyst Imran Khan, week 3 listings data and YTD listings data to 20 April 2008 continue to exceed estimates.

On a reported basis, we have tracked 164.5M listings on eBay’s sites, up 24.9% Y/Y, ahead of our estimate of 10% growth for the quarter.

According to Khan, international growth remains very strong, with listings up 35.4% Y/Y.

Week 3 data represents a surprisingly small deceleration from week 1 and week 2. Given part of the strength in listings is from promotions in UK and Germany in early Q2, I would expect the listings growth to continue to decelerate in the coming weeks.

StumbleUpon Reaches 5 Million Users

According to the StumbleUpon homepage, the service yesterday surpassed 5 million users. The milestone comes less than five months after crossing the 4 million user mark. Although still impressive, this is a very significant slowdown in user growth.

The official press release from SU includes the equally interesting fact that they are celebrating their 5 billionth 'stumble' (with over one billion 'stumbles' YTD).

This is a very very very rough guesstimate but assuming 10% of 'stumbles' are from their recently introduced contextual ad program, that would mean 100 million paid 'stumbles' YTD. And guessing revenue / paid stumble is around 30 cents, that's $30 million in YTD revenue and close to $100 million in annualized revenue.

This is complete guesswork, but pretty darn amazing - even if I am off by a longshot. Not bad at all for a company that was purchased for an all-inclusive $75 million.

Kijiji US Reaches 400,000 Concurrent Listings

It was a day of milestones for more than one eBay site yestesrday. Joining StumbleUpon is Kijiji, which has reached 400,000 concurrent listings on the US-only site only 90 days after reaching 300,000 listings. Although the data suggests decelerating growth, it is still above 300% annualized.

Kijiji US still remains a very small part of the Kijiji network (France, Canada and Germany being several times the size) but its slowly catching up.

Comments

[ebayspin:]

Has Mr. Khan been asleep. Ebay has converted millions of Shopping.com listings to Ebay Express all at no addiditional revenue than the fees ALREADY paid to Shopping.com.
Kindergarten math 1,000,000x$0=$0

2008 Apr 25 10:22 AM

[scot:]

another disgruntled powerwhiner posting on a financial website. go away!

2008 Apr 26 01:16 AM

[Jose Mallabo:]

Kijiji U.S. has generated more than 250 million page views since launch July 2007.

eBay's classifieds portfolio (Kijiji, Gumtree, LoQUo and Markplaats) has a presence in 23 countries (in local language, managed locally in most cases) and more than 700 cities worldwide.

The portfolio of businesses boasts more than 16 million live listings concurrently.

Jose Mallabo
eBay/Kijiji

2008 Apr 27 12:48 AM

[User 184234:]

Only one anti-ebay poster? I guess their "movement" is losing steam. Thanks for the info Jose.

2008 Apr 27 08:58 PM