The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades

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Includes: BLK, CF, CNX, COG, COST, COW, MEE, MOS, MS, MTL, POT, TSL, VEDL, WMT, YGE
by: TraderMark

As long as the S&P 500 holds 1350 there seems no stopping this market. You can throw bad news after bad news and it ignores it. So I am drinking the Kool Aid until/when we technically break down. In fact I can see a scenario now building where restaurants, retailers, and financials are LEADERS of the pack for 2nd quarter, especially if the dollar strengthens - it would be funny, but hey as long as the market is discounting all bad news from here to 2037, we might as well at least understand the psychology. And I keep coming back to the thought that inflation hits every finite asset including stock certificates, so if inflation is 15% in all things, then stock prices can remain elevated over true value by 15%.


I am buying more items in my see no evil, hear no evil state
  1. Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) seems to be holding that 20 day moving average. My fair value is $200. It would be wrong to not have this as my #1 position as I've had for months on end - so I bought more here in the mid $120s. Mosaic is now back to its rightful place at the top of the fund with a 5.1% stake. Welcome back home.
  2. I've also increased Potash (NYSE:POT) realizing that the stocks can still correct, but that naked feeling I've had the past 10 days without major fertilizer exposure is not a good one. Potash you get all the publicity but your still 2nd in my heart to Mosaic - hence you get half the allocation - 2.5% CF Industries (NYSE:CF) - well I know you don't have potash in your mix but you deserve to at least be a 1.4% allocation and I'll enjoy reading about the same old, same old in your report - we smacked estimates out of the park, natural gas costs are rising, blah blah.
  3. Have I told you how wonderful financials are lately? Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) you are now going to a 2.8% stake. I am eyeing Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to join you because.... everything will be fine in 6 months, the Fed is now in your back pocket, and you guys are also stealth Asian plays as you work your multinational magic. Now that you've shredded the financial system of America it's time to conquer new lands. Until Goldman breaks out, I'll add more Blackrock (NYSE:BLK)
  4. It would be wrong to have Mechel (NYSE:MTL) below a 2% stake so I had to buy back even more than what I bought yesterday morning.
  5. Since any human on the planet will seem like a greenie compared to the current administration, I continue to build up the solar stakes in anticipation of November 2008 - Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) is my favorite "value" and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) pulled back to 50 day moving average nicely yesterday morning so I added to both.
  6. You can't have solar without coal - they are like Simon and Garfunkel. More coal with Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX) and Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE).
  7. You can't have solar, without coal, without natural gas - I am woefully underexposed so I added back to my Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) - it does not matter if Americans cannot heat their homes - as long as Indians are buying chicken nuggets and Chinese are buying Blackberries, the world of multinationals (and thus stock market) continues in bliss
  8. I'm adding to my Indian copper play Sterlite Industries (SLT) which seems very undervalued with nearly $4 copper, and sitting in a country of 1 billion people who are going to be dominating the world in 30 years.
  9. More iPath DJ Livestock ETN (NYSEARCA:COW) on this pullback to support - listen to the Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) CEO on CNBC this morning - he said prices are going up MATERIALLY. Yes, go to that link and listen - I dare you. You laugh at me when I tell you, you are going to need a mortgage to BBQ this Labor Day. We'll see! More moolah for investors; more pain for consumers - but WHO cares about regular Americans. If they don't invest in the stock market, the powers that be could care less. More ethanol subsidies please?
  10. Crude at $120? No problem. Food prices off the chart? Who cares. American consumers don't matter to multinationals. I'm buying retailer.... KIDDING! KIDDING! While I do expect retailers to put a 150-250% rise here since bad news doesn't matter, I refuse to buy them.  But if I had to you know which 2 - Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) - the pooring of America continues but the stock market is not Main Street - it is full of multinationals that could care less if you could afford to live... they have Asians, and Latin Americans, and Europeans, and Middle Easterners to line their pockets with riches. And Congressman to help on the other side (taxes) Nirvana!
Because I believe in the American dream I have cut back on my Ultrashorts in Retail, Financial, and Real Estate (commercial) because as long as we all close our eyes, sing Kumbaya - and BELIEVE it will be fine in 6 months... it can be. Or at least the stock market can keep staying up... it worked in September/October 2007 - we can do it again! Just believe.

Summary: You don't matter you puny American. You are 5% of the world population. With the other 95% of the world's population and especially the most important 40% in Chindia, our multinationals are going to rock the world. Yes they might cut jobs here and source them overseas but they are still good people, and make good profits. I don't care if you have to drain your 401ks just to pay for food, that's your problem... I have some Brazilians to worry about on how I am going to sell them some product.

And if you did matter (which you don't), let me just assure you everything will be fine in 6 months so go buy a house, get into the malls, and go eat out at Chipotle's. What's that? No, I don't want to hear that - no excuses. If you have to ....go borrow some money. It's worked like a charm so far!

Enjoy! And buy stocks! They're going up as the Indians, Chinese, Middle Easterners, Brazilians, Russians, transfer wealth by the day from your pockets. But that's your problem you silly American.