Juniper Offers Mixed History For Trading Off Earnings - Shorts Hold Slight Advantage

| About: Juniper Networks (JNPR)

Juniper Networks (JNPR) is near evenly mixed in its performance between the sessions following earnings-driven after-hours trade.

Broadly, JNPR has seen more aggressive next-day percentage regular session movement following 17 of its last 33 earnings-driven after-hours trades (52% of the time).

Looking deeper into the performance data, the stock has recorded an after-hours gain in 16 of those quarters we've tracked, adding to its gains the next day in 8 quarters (50% of the time). The stock has recorded an after-hours decline in 17 quarters, adding to its evening declines in next-day trade in 9 quarters (53% of the time).

Juniper is expected to report its Q2 results in tonight's after-hours, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to post a profit of $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion.

The historical performance data follows:

  • On April 24, 2012, JNPR reported better-than-expected Q1 results and mixed Q2 guidance late in the regular session. The stock closed the day up 7.2% and added 1.8% in the after-hours. It reversed direction the following day, ending down 3.6% in the April 25 regular session.
  • On Jan. 26, 2012, JNPR declined 7.4% in after-hours trade after meeting Q4 estimates and guiding its Q1 view below expectations. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, ending the Jan. 27 regular session off 3%.
  • On Oct. 18, 2011, the stock edged up 0.5% after the company reported earnings in line but guided for Q4 in line to below the Street view. Shares fell 5.8% the next day.
  • On July 26, 2011, JNPR plummeted 16% in after-hours trade after reporting lower-than-expected results and guidance. The stock cratered deeper in the red the next day, ending the July 27 regular session down 20.8%.
  • On April 19, 2011, JNPR advanced 3% in night trade after beating Q1 revenue estimates, meeting on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock narrowed its upside the following day, closing the April 20 regular session up 2%.
  • On Jan. 25, 2011, JNPR gained 2.3% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock climbed higher the following day, ending the Jan. 26 regular session with a 6.4% gain.
  • On Oct. 19, 2010, the stock fell 2.1% in after-hours trading following in-line Q3 earnings. Shares rebounded to gain 5.2% the next day.
  • On July 20, 2010, the stock fell 2.6% after a Q2 earnings beat. Shares rose a slimmer 0.6% the next day.
  • On April 20, 2010, JNPR declined 7.5% in evening trade after topping expectations but also issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook. The stock cut it downside the next day, closing the April 21 regular session down 5.5%.
  • On Jan. 28, 2010, the stock was up 4.1% in extended-hours trading after a Q4 beat and in-line guidance. Shares rose a slimmer 1.4% the next day.
  • On Oct. 22, 2009, JNPR advanced 1.3% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and setting its Q4 guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock lost its upside momentum the next day, ending down 3.2% in the Oct. 23 regular session.
  • On July 23, 2009, JNPR fell 6.4% in after-hours trading after a Q2 earnings beat and guidance largely in line with Street views. Shares rebounded to gain 1.1% the next day.
  • On April 23, 2009, the stock advanced 8.7% after a strong quarterly gain in income matched Street expectations. Shares rose a more robust 15.9% the next day.
  • On Jan. 29, 2009, the stock fell 8% during evening trading after beating with its latest results but guiding below the Street. Shares doubled that decline to close down 16.5% the next day.
  • On Oct. 23, 2008, the stock fell 4.6% after beating with Q3 but offering a wide guidance range for Q4. The loss widened to 7.4% the next day.
  • On July 24, 2008, JNPR surged 10% in night trade after just topping quarterly expectations. The stock added to its upside the following day, rising 17.7% in the July 25 regular session.
  • On April 24, 2008, JNPR advanced 3.1% in after-hours activity after beating Q1 estimates. It found firmer support the next day, rising 3.8% by the April 25 close.
  • On Jan. 24, 2008, the stock rose 3.4% during evening trading after JNPR reported ahead of the Street with Q4 earnings but later guided mostly in line for Q1 and FY08. The stock reversed and closed down 1.3% the next day.
  • On Oct. 23, 2007, JNPR fell 6.4% during after-hours trading after the company reported ahead of the Street with Q3 results but disappointed with in-line guidance for Q4. The stock fell 8.4% the next day.
  • On July 18, 2007, JNPR rose 2.8% in after hours when the company topped Q2 sales estimates and met on EPS. It also forecasted Q3 and FY sales above Street views. Shares jumped the next day to end the regular session up 12.4%.
  • On April 23, 2007, JNPR slipped 3.9% in night trade despite meeting on Q1 earnings estimates and topping on EPS. It offered EPS guidance that was in line with forecasts. Shares cut those losses and closed the next day down 1.1%.
  • On Jan. 30, 2007, the stock fell 6.2% in evening trading after the company tops with Q4 results but guides for 2007 results below the Street's view. Shares fell 8.5% the next day.
  • On Oct. 18, 2006, JNPR shares rose 1.3% in the evening session after the company reported just ahead of sales estimates. The gain improved to 5.3% the next day.
  • On July 19, 2006, JNPR edged up 0.07% in night trade after reporting Q2 sales in line with estimates. No EPS data were released due to an ongoing stock options review. The shares slipped the next day, closing the regular session down 0.5%.
  • On April 19, 2006, JNPR shed 4.5% in after-hours trade when the company guided for Q2 sales to be below Street estimates. The shares slid further the next day, ending the regular session down 10.1%.
  • On Jan. 25, 2006, shares fell 7.3% in evening trade after the company reported revenue shy of expectations. The loss swelled to 20.7% the next day.
  • On October 19, 2005, JNPR gained 4.2% in evening trade after topping Q3 estimates and guiding on a conference call Q4 sales above Street forecasts. The shares, though, trimmed gains the next day, ending the regular session up 3.6%.
  • On July 19, 2005, JNPR fell 3.7% despite topping Q2 estimates. It widened that loss in the July 20 regular session, sliding 5.7%.
  • On April 19, 2005 JNPR jumped 4.4% in night trade after the company beat expectations. More aggressive buying followed on April 20 as the stock ramped up 6.4% by the closing bell.
  • JNPR edged up 1.8% the night of Jan. 18, 2005, after the company beat Q4 expectations and set its Q1 sales view ahead of analysts' consensus numbers. The stock saw its evening upside lose momentum the next day, and JNPR closed regular session trade down 2.7% on Jan. 19.
  • Following its Oct. 14, 2004 Q3 report, JNPR slid 6.7% in that night's trade after the company posted better-than-expected results and guided its outlook ahead of estimates. JNPR shares ended the Oct. 15 regular session down a more modest 5%.
  • Back on July 13, 2004, JNPR added 10.4% in after-hours trade following blowout quarterly results and a hiked outlook. The stock firmed higher the next day, ending the regular session up 11.7%.
  • On April 21, 2004 JNPR declined 7% despite beating Street expectations. It recorded an abrupt about-face in the following day's action, ending bell-to-bell play up 3.8%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.