Upstream MLPs and Canadian Royalty Trusts: High Return, High Risk?
In a previous article (Outrageous Opportunities in Upstream MLPs), I discussed high-yield opportunities in upstream MLPs, comparing them to Canadian Royalty Trusts (Canroys). Even after recovering from recent lows, both sectors feature tantalizingly high distributions:
Master Limited Partnership
- Breitburn Energy Partners (BBEP) - 8.7%
- Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) - 13%
- Enervest Energy Partners (EVEP) - 8.6%
- Linn Energy (LINE) - 11.2%
Canadian Royalty Trusts
- Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) - 11.3%
- Harvest Energy Trust (HTE) - 16%
- Pennwest Energy Trust (PWE) - 13.5%
- Pengrowth (PGH) - 14.9%
If you believe at all in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, you’ll want to know what risks induce the market to place such high yield premiums on these stocks. Here’s a look at a few of the key risks.
Taxation
MLPs and Canroys both have serious, but different tax risks. The market has undoubtedly discounted the Canadian 2011 trust tax changes and many Canroys have accumulated tax pools, which will delay the bite of the increased taxes for several years. But ultimately, the benefits of the current trust structure will be lost. Moreover, the risk of increased provincial levees and royalties still looms. Canadian national and provincial governments have shown a propensity to extract every cent they can from resource companies. Raising taxes on companies with substantial foreign ownership is a pretty easy political move.
Although MLPs pay mostly tax-deferred distributions, that satus could be lost. The IRS or FERC could change an individual company’s status or Congress could inadvertently destroy all MLPs while attempting to make private equity partners "pay their fair share." Pipeline MLP holders may recall how a 1995 FERC ruling temporarily reduced MLP prices by nearly 20% in a single day. Another risk stems from the unpredictability of MLP income passthroughs. For example, Teppco (TPP) passed through very little taxable income in 2006, but socked many unitholders with taxable ordinary income that exceeded the distributions paid in 2007.
Increasing Costs
Most Canroys hedge about half their production one or two years out; upstream MLPs tend to hedge 70% to 100% of their production as much as five years out. General inflation or a gold-rush environment in the oilfield is bad news for these companies, because it means higher labor, lease, and equipment costs that may not be completely offset by higher revenue. A glance at classified ads in Edmonton, AB or Pinedale, WY, suggests the gold rush is on right now. MLPs will suffer more from this because of their higher hedging percentages. At this point, a slump in oil and gas demand and a commensurate decline in oilfield costs might actually help them.
Distributable Cash Flow
Both Canroys and upstream MLPs rely heavily on financing to maintain and grow distributable cash flow. Current credit conditions and the cool reception to recent MLP equity offerings have constrained these companies. Acquisitions have ground to a halt and several Canroys have reduced distributions in order to maintain capital expenditures. The best bets in these sectors are the companies that show good potential for organic growth and whose distributable cash flow easily covers current distributions. Look out for companies that borrow to make distributions.
Exchange Rates
Exchange rates have a mixed effect on the various Canroys. Ceteris paribas, a stronger Loonie increases the U.S. Dollar value of their shares and distributions. However, because Canroy costs are Loonie denominated while their revenue is mostly U.S. dollar denominated, it squeezes their margins. A few Canroys, such as HTE, have hedged exchange rates to ameliorate this effect. To further complicate matters, many Canroys have U.S. dollar-denominated debt and interest payments. Pengrowth realized a $40 million exchange rate gain on their debt just in the third quarter of 2007. In short, some of these stocks will suffer from a stronger Loonie while some may actually benefit.
Lehman Brothers
Lehman Brothers owns substantial stakes in nearly every upstream MLP -- more than 10% in several cases. If circumstances force Lehman to dump those units, it might present great buying opportunities for holders with new money and a long term perspective, but really stressful times for current unitholders.
Should I Buy?
If you are comfortable with these risks and you think the market has fully discounted them, many of these companies present compelling values. They can help diversify a portfolio nicely since their correlation to the overall equities market is fairly low.
For my own portfolio, I hold Baytex Energy Trust (BTE) and Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) but favor the MLPs for new purchases. While I believe the market may have priced MLPs efficiently for institutions and short-term holders, it does not fully value their significant tax advantages to very long term holders. Moreover, each dollar invested in an MLP generally buys you more net proved reserves.
Before you buy, consult a knowledgeable tax advisor to gain a complete understanding of MLP tax implications. Expect that you’ll have to pay an advisor extra to prepare your taxes.
Disclosure: Author holds positions in the stocks mentioned
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This article has 30 comments:
- zayt trader
- 3 Comments
Apr 27 09:51 AMSome other ones you should look at are ATN and QELP.
What are the distributable cash flow for these, BTW?
- paultaut
- 718 Comments
Apr 27 11:25 AMCurrency risk.....who cares.....the major points should be the attributes of each company...what grade of oil do they produce, reserve life, acreage available for exploration, do they hold assets other than oil, etc.
They are oil companies which currently distribute large amounts of cash...in the future, that cash distribution may be curtailed...great...be... their earnings will increase accordingly and all will benefit from the appreciation of each share...
Oil will be lower 3 years from now, the 15% dividend rate will be abolished...give me a break...so what...
The active return will still be above anything else...short of maybe some really beaten down REITS that survive...I started buying CanRoys before the creation of the 15% rule....I will hold them until they are all bought for cash...
- User 171371
- 10 Comments
Apr 27 11:27 AM- Elliot Miller
- 52 Comments
Apr 27 02:40 PM- AJ30
- 35 Comments
Apr 27 03:18 PM- J. Howle
- 14 Comments
My Website
Apr 27 11:03 PM- paultaut
- 718 Comments
Apr 28 12:04 AM- lefty
- 61 Comments
Apr 28 07:02 AM- Loup-Garou
- 21 Comments
Apr 28 06:34 PMInstead of looting the companies for the management, the canroys give the owners a bit back.
- insane_equine
- 6 Comments
Apr 28 10:48 PMNot totally risk free, but close enough for me.
- Georealist
- 394 Comments
Apr 28 11:38 PMWhat you DO need to work at is Due Diligence..go on the websites and look at what the Trusts are revealing about resource structure..reserve life..etc...VERY helpful..
For my money you could not do better than one US..Linn Energy and one Canadian..PWE....
- ewreznick
- 1 Comment
Apr 29 02:17 AM- deuxsous
- 62 Comments
My Website
Apr 29 04:00 PMwww.mcdep.com/rtweek70...
"The main tax complication of DMLP is that taxable holders must report distributions as partnership income including the separate items furnished in what is known as a K-1 form. For new purchasers, most or all of income in the early years would be sheltered by cost depletion. For depletion purposes conservative reporting of reserves is an advantage because the implied higher depletion means earlier tax shelter.
"At the same time, DMLP deliberately shuns debt to be sure that it does not trigger unrelated business taxable income for tax-exempt or tax-deferred investors. In other words, the stock ought to be suitable for endowments, pension funds and IRAs. Such investors forego the cost depletion advantage, but get full advantage of the avoidance of taxation at the partnership level. Non-U.S. investors might face other considerations."
- sltd
- 3 Comments
Apr 29 06:53 PM- bhakta
- 103 Comments
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Apr 29 09:18 PM- OJO Zafado
- 66 Comments
Apr 30 03:27 AM- OJO Zafado
- 66 Comments
Apr 30 03:35 AM- sltd
- 3 Comments
Apr 30 11:20 AMWow, did you ever answer my question and then some. I'm glad that I made the inquiry when I did. Anyway I am not nearly as knowlegable as you are, I just know going into retirement we will need more return on investments than treasuries are offering.
Thank you again for an indept answer and the time you took to give it.
SLTD
- Ray Meadows
- 6 Comments
My Website
Apr 30 01:05 PM- Income & Yield
- 2 Comments
My Website
Apr 30 03:28 PM- OJO Zafado
- 66 Comments
May 01 03:14 AM- Mmarrkk
- 225 Comments
May 01 10:15 AM- OJO Zafado
- 66 Comments
May 02 07:19 AM- Mmarrkk
- 225 Comments
May 02 09:41 AMI'll take a look at your previous post and this last one and pull together some ideas. Thanks for the input.
- Mmarrkk
- 225 Comments
May 02 10:04 AM- OJO Zafado
- 66 Comments
May 07 08:49 AM- surfside sue
- 4 Comments
May 16 12:43 PMI've read your postings with great interest, but can't quite find the answer to my overriding question which is:
Can I hold Canroys or MLPs in my ROTH (tax free) account and get the benefit of high yields (minus 15% withheld on Canroys), or am I asking for trouble here? I don't use a tax advisor, just TURBOTAX.
Thanks Sue :-)
- 123
- 25 Comments
May 18 01:17 AMAll of these trusts have been going up, but it seems to me that's because: people like big dividend yields + "oil is good; buy oil." But like I said the financing here makes no sense, at least to me...can someone, who wants to, explain what I'm missing? Additionally, on a FCF basis, also, most of these companies are in the red because their capex exceeds their operating cash flow, and probably will for the foreseeable future. These things are like some kind of twisted version of a "growth stock". After the above, seems like a bubble with these royalty trusts.
- patfish
- 1 Comment
Jun 15 03:29 AM- Jabes
- 1 Comment
Jun 21 02:25 PMOn May 16 12:43 PM surfside sue wrote:
> OJO Z... :
>
> I've read your postings with great interest, but can't quite find
> the answer to my overriding question which is:
>
> Can I hold Canroys or MLPs in my ROTH (tax free) account and get
> the benefit of high yields (minus 15% withheld on Canroys), or am
> I asking for trouble here? I don't use a tax advisor, just TURBOTAX.
>
>
> Thanks Sue :-)
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