E*Trade: Hindsight with Binoculars
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How can the act of one company cause the demise of a goliath (Bear Stearns (BSC)) and an entire sector (financials) to lose billions? It was some time in mid-November, when E*Trade Financial (ETFC) was trading at about $20 per share (about 10 billion market cap), that an analyst from Citigroup (C) (who needs not be mentioned) would be remembered infamously for his comments.

But the true cost of his actions were like a row of dominoes falling - affecting not only the targeted company but the very firm he represented. "E-Ttrade going Bankrupt" was the comment, and the reasoning was irrational (as E*Trade stated later).
The following weeks set in motion a domino effect that would cause Citigroup to lose half of its value and Bear Stearns to go out of business. E*Trade did something so massive it was considered taboo. Because of the actions and comments of the Citigroup analyst (and having subsequently lost nearly 90% of their market cap), E*Trade did what we are taught to do every time we fly on a commercial plane - they put the oxygen mask on themselves first before thinking of the other companies that would be hindered from their actions.
E*Trade sold off their CDOs and Alt-As for .27 cents to the dollar to Citadel. Why is this significant? CDOs and Alt-As are priced based on the last sale price, not on what you or I claim they are worth, so in essence, E*Trade cutting off a pinky caused a massive hemorrhage to the other institutions that carried those instruments more extensively.
E*Trade was and is now safe, plus 2.5 billion dollars stronger, but it does not end there. You see, almost 100 million shares short came on board at about $3 per share, and they were promised an execution. Many can argue that shorting a company at $25 for a jolt, making a point on the down side, is intelligent and opportunistic, but when you short so much with so few shares outstanding (at a level no short normally would not care to be left naked), it's hard to justify such a short under those circumstances.
Well, not only is E*Trade not going bankrupt, nor intending to do so, but they sold off many non-core assets, such as their corporate jets, investments in India, and, if I'm not mistaken, E*Trade in Korea, Japan, Australia, and other locations have been sold off quietly. This is all being done, in my opinion, to fatten up their balance sheet and to trim the fat off of their expenditures.
In addition, E*Trade has changed their CEO, COO and, more recently, their CFO. This is not the E*Trade of yesterday; this E*Trade is bigger, meaner and much more cash rich. But why the make over? I believe that analysts followed with their downgrades like lemmings (except for BMO Capital, which was more open to the true value and was steadfast), and now E*Trade needs to give those analysts a reason to re-recommend the company. An analyst could always report that E*Trade's rating has been increased due to a reduction of CDO and Alt-A exposure, increased cash reserves and client base, but the fact that the company has had a management facelift would be a more compelling reason to believe that a turnaround is in progress ahead of expectations.
This is all being orchestrated like a great symphony with, I believe, Ken Griffen acting as not only the composer but also the maestro.
E*Trade has been out of the woods for some time now and the institutions are slowly tip toeing back in, but they have to do it in without awakening anyone. E*Trade will most likely do one more sale of securities in exchange for getting rid of any remaining debt. Many have been awaiting the acquisition of E*Trade, but if their suitors don't act quickly, the share price, which will continue appreciating more every day, week and month, will make it more expensive to do so, and with more and more improvements, the shareholders would be less likely open to getting rid of their shares.
Disclosure: Author holds a position in ETFC
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This article has 48 comments:
jegan ;-<
Q Etrade will have a better cap ratio than any major bank. It is a cash rich company. Not only are they on track with the turnaround plan, but it is happening at a quicker pace than ever expected and the mortgage portfolio is behaving better than expected. The first lien mortgage portfolio is behaving a little worse, but this only affects Etrade's earnings, and has nothing to do with their capital, since they have a great position in those properties. The HELOC portfolio has experienced declining delinquincies. All good news.
For all beleaguered longs who have seen the incredible progress accomplished by Etrade in so little time, we wish to extend our thanks to Seeking Alpha for continuing to provide objective coverage on a stock that continues to be the victim of incredible manipulation and biased reporting. Once again, Seeking Alpha proves itself to be a valuable resource to the retail investor, when all others fail to do proper diligence.
Jegan, you are nothing but a well known basher with an agenda and have offered nothing to the discussion. At least you are consistent in your idiocy.
Jegan
Reason
I just completed an experiment. I have a 4 inch ring binder nearly full where I've been collecting Analysts' forecasts from some of the major reporting companies you can access off E-Trade on the banking sector for the past 9 months.
Conclusion: They're all over the map. Imagine, some poor sucker actually pays for this crap. At least I get it for free. So when some Bozo I'm not going to name either says E-Trade might go belly up you can do what I do. Use Google under images to find his mug, print it out, hang it up on a wall and throw stuff at it. Don't recommend pie or cake like Cramer users. That gets messy. ;-)
Obviously ETFC made big mistakes, a few billion worth, and have been severely punished. Whether they're over or under valued remains to be seen. To their credit they didn't waste time in making major changes and have gained credibility by hiring Layton. Its difficult being too optimistic for them though since the size of their banking operations is far greater than the trading platform and loan portfolios continue to deteriorate. Maybe not as bad as others but there is still considerable exposure.
"but the fact that the company has had a management facelift would be a more compelling reason to believe that a turnaround is in progress ahead of expectations. "
I don't think we have seen much of a facelift. Although the CEO has changed, the general counsel and CFO resigned - with no clear succession plan. If they had been "asked" to resign, there would have been a clearer plan in place, rather than just "interim" appointments.
Although the Street is tough for employment at the moment, I think the potential exodus of talent is going to be one of the bigger risks to the company. The last thing they need in the middle of a turnaround plan is institutional knowledge walking out the door.
My thesis is that Etrade did what banks are being handsomely rewarded for in March-April 08, but they did it in Nov 07 when it was grounds for punishment, not reward.
Nobody (not institutional buyers, anyway) has looked back to that time, realized the disconnect, and treated the stock as it would have been treated if it had started aggressively raising capital and writing down assets TODAY.
Efficient market my a--.
Once TDA loses one IRA deposit for over a month or actually puts your money in someone elses account (grouped deposit from work they were to split into multiple accounts) then you might not be so quick to judge etfc. Good luck there, lol. May your experiences there be better than mine.
Please, stop lying. "lost stock certificates"?? And the SEC actually helped you. I hope no one would be foolish to believe such idiocy. I'm sure the SEC was ready and able to help you on your "customer service" issues. And I've got a bridge to sell you.
I published an article on Citigroup's (now notorious) Veteran's Day Assault on E*Trade back in November: www.qzaki.com/Archive/....
and for Citi-haters only, a recent satire piece: www.qzaki.com/Archive/...
As a shareholder and long-time customer of E*Trade, all I can say to the shorts is you aren't going to get any of my shares at $4. Good luck covering.
their platform has gone through several changes over the years and is getting better and better. 2 major changes since i switched and i have to say that the first change was a bit hard to get used to at first. i think over all, they do have a great platform but for new customers, you just gotta realize that there's always things that you need to be familiar with. i have to say that back in the 80's schwab’s online trading system was horrible and i was very happy with etrade when i switched. today, i have no need to try other platforms as etfc has a good full feature site and even more if you qualify or willing to pay for some additional services. what make it so great? once you're familir with it, everything you need to trade is organized and right in front of you with just a mouse click away.
1. The stock market is very volatile. Industry is good.
2. Our currency is depreciating faster than ever I can remember and there are not so many good investment choices beside stocks.
3. It still holds a very recognizable name. Common people know etrade is a firm that trades stock.
4. Its core product is still very competitive in the market.
Reason
Everything in the last two choices is in real time no 20 minute delays and you have as little or as much data as you want in multiple windows. Either of these options can be free depending on your trading activity or you can subscribe monthly or quarterly if I remember correctly for a small fee if your trading level is lower.
Each Window has it's own setup so if you want you can change text size, color schemes data shown for each seperately from the rest. Most windows can "float" so you can move them around and resize them almost anyway you want. Ditto for most of the columns as well as shifting them left or right.
I'll skip over the usual 'your acount' and trading windows which are pretty standard no matter what platform or company you use.
I display everything on one 22 inch wide monitor. My account window spans the top all the away across with about 2 inches height. The rest of the screen is divided into 3 main areas, The main window is tabed to shift between current positions which are updated in real time, a watch list tab where I can track multiple wish lists, a market depth tab that shows tic by tic for any stock or option plus graphic indicator of volume, etc., an options tab that shows the usual option related details and chart and research tabs. You can track both stocks and options in real time by symbol anywhere from 1 minute to 20 years history in the charting window, picking from line graphs, candle stick, etc.. You can overlay common charting toys like show volume, MACD signal, moving averages and so on.
Over at the right I set up a vertical watch list. This can be customized at will or you can select form hundeds of industires or averages already build it.
Again the ease at which you can shift back and forth is impressive. You simply sort by any column heading by clicking on it and get real time displays sorted by company name, symbol, last trade, percent change, etc., or if you want you can watch a sector, like I've been watching banks which have about 150 major banks build in, no need to manually enter them one at a time in the watch list, but you can make as many custom watch lists as you want. The last column adds a news tab so if anything is crossing the wires relative to a particular stock or sector it changes color.
You also can have several streaming ticker displays clicking between top stories and streaming headlines in another window which I set up at the very bottom. Add in a reseach tab which can bring you a whole host of data, plus access the the default research and history which gives a wealth of information on every stock symbol on the major exchanges plus earnings, P/L statements, other financial data, federal filings analyst ratings, reports, etc., etc..
It's a nice package, maybe a bit overwhelming at first but very easy to use after a couple days of getting use to all the data presented at once. Plus if you don't like your layout you can easily change it again in real time giving yourself as little or as much details as you need.
I also use it to track my mutual funds which I have outside of E-Trade. I only had to make a watch list adding the symbols and first thing in the morning I get an update on the NAV and the relative value/profit/loss of each plus the total by simply clicking a couple buttons to go to that particualr watch list. No more straining eyes trying to read the fine print in a newspaper.
As I said, I don't know how much of the above is duplicated on other platforms, but I'm happy with the ease E-Trade makes all this possible. You can also track about anything you want and have in your positions or watch list windows show it like open interest for options, price range for day or 52 weeks, Divs, most of the popular ratios, % gain, costs, etc. etc..
Reason
Under the fundamentals tab
Example I used Citygroup
Shares Outstanding 5.2 B
Institutional Ownership 59.95%
Number of Floating Shares 5.2 B
Short Interest as % of Float 2.41%
Also under that tab are rankings for Valuation, Management effectivness, operating ratios, profitability, growth rate, financial strength, divs and basic stuff like number of employees, company's address and a brief company overview. From here you also are one click away for getting full detailed quarterly and yearly P/L, balance sheet, income statement, cash flow and SEC filings.
On the Analysts tab, something I use a lot, you have the latest reports from CreditSuisse, Reuters,S&P, Rochdale,Sabrient and Thompson which usually change at least monthly often more often. Typically a 5-10 page PDF format report. From this page E-Trade also does a scatter chart of whatever the sector is of the symbol you looked up.
So for example if you got specifics on Citygroup, it plots it on the scatter chart for money center banks using a ranking from 5 to 1 (strong sell, to strong buy) based on the analysts tracking the sector. Then you can click on the dots on the chart and instantly get specifics. The idea of this kind of chart is you see at glance how each company is weighted against the other based on how they are ranked presently.
For example if you hover over Well Fargo on the scatter chart it currently is showing it as a 2.4 or buy. Then along side that is a bar chart ranking the symbol you currently picked, again in the example Citygroup showing ranking from all the analysts tracking the company in this case 26 so you get a quick snapshot how overall the stock is viewed performace wise from sell to buy in five bars.
Again, I don't know how this stacks up with other platforms, maybe they as good or better. I just like E-Trade used it a long time and I'm very comfortable with it.
Do I need to say that ETRADE's platform (the default-free one) is suberp compared to the other two? Customer service? Do I really have to expect customer service from a disccount brokerage firm? Anything I can possibly need is available online (forms, records, help, etc) and when I have called I have had no problems with the agents.
Anyway, my personal customer experience has really nothing to do with ETRADE's current market value.
Default home equity lines seem to be one of the major risks for ETRADE. I may build a small position on ETRADE for the long run. Good luck to all!
siliconinvestor.advfn....
www.investorvillage.co...
Reason
There's a great web site that does that. I forget the name of it. Somebody else will probably know. On this site you can enter a stock symbol and it will show which mutual funds are buying, holding, selling, total holding,etc. by entered stock symbol.
novice
Voice - I would love to know what that site is that shows what institutions own what percentage of stocks.
spective
AFTER THAT they will pay 19.99 a trade double of what TD Ameritrade charge. How long they will sustain these clients with their high pricing is yet to to be seen. I see net negative accounts opened to the tune of 60000 in May. Till etrade gets their customer pricing right i think its destined to fail.
Reason
As far as handling paper work I had one situation that miffed me a bit almost a year ago. I sent them 100K worth of stock certificates with my name on them and my parents names already deceased. What on the surface should have been a simple transaction dragged on and on.
First I waited what I thought was a reasonable time... ten days for them to get the certificates. Heard nothing so I called. Guy I talked said they had no record of receiving them then offered they get 100,000 pieces of mail a day.
A couple days later it showed up on my account, but was blocked from trading on some kind of hold. Called again, they said I needed more paper work, some stupid power of attorney or something. I wasn't really going to trade the stock right then, so I played along.
Another week went by, nothing changed, I called again. Got a different guy, now they're saying also need some proof of residence. I point out to them their own web site says you don't need either of the things they asked for if the stock certificates are registered in joint tenandancy which they were aside from certified copies of death certificates with I send in with the stock certificates now weeks before. Yes, I now was getting pretty steamed.
Somehow after screaming a couple jerks I got transferred to some big shot who said he would run interference for me and he did. Resolved in a couple days along with a profuse apology. They blamed some over worked new guy in their back office for screwing things up. Which is something that can happen with any company no matter who you have an account with.
Every other time I called about something I got very prompt accurate help incuding making changes in Microsoft's brower that was interferring with their platform.
e
www.investorslive.com/... new plays each day, live chat too - not worth it with Etrade its going to be stuck in a channel for the longest time...
spective
OK dont like averages take extremes. then 50% opened $1000 accounts and 50% opened $9000 accounts.
Fact is still that after a month since the balance is less than $25000 they will be paying $19.99 a trade.
-the $1000 guys bet it all they pay $40 for a round transaction. The stock needs to move 4% + to make a profit. you think these guys will find a 4% trade every week?? no!! so thats 50% customers gone at least !!
Like you said they will test the water!
On the share transfer bit i learnt the hard way (loosing $7000 approx) while my stock was moved from My former employers custodian to E*trade that you they dont do any proactive followup so you need to start calling them week 2 and do some screaming early. FYI it took 3 months to finish the transaction and to top it they charged me for the service which i paid with a smile!
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Reason
I'm still amazed, though I shouldn't be over what can best be described as misinformation spouted in forums like this daily.
lic
Now I have small accounts at Zecco, eTrade and Scottstrade. If you know what you want to buy and when you want to buy it, (And don't mind slow order execution) use Zecco as trades are free. eTrade is great for research. Great for order execution. They chrage me 12.99 a trade which I think is reasonable. I make less then 10 trades a quarter. Scottrade is just ok in my book. eTrade beats them in every way, eTrade customer service is great.
I wish money would post to my accounts faster then it currently does. But eTrade is still faster than Scottstrade, and Zecco takes FOR EVER.
I think i will open a small postion in etfc and see what happens.
e
www.investorslive.com/.../
That's my scan
The customer service manager I spoke to said I should have received one and he was sorry I didn't. My account was just opened, you would think they would get it right for a new customer. The front line customer service guy I spoke to initially was saying they don't usually send out proactive communications, just tell people whats wrong when they call in. I suspect he was right and the manger was just trying to preserve the account.
Anyway, transferring my account to Ameritrade before I have to go through anymore problems. My account is meaningless, but I thought I would tell you my experience.
======================...
Respected Sirs/Madams,
The increase in short interest over last two week
provides further solid evidence that the stock
price is being depressed for May 16th authorization
of 600M shares which could potentially be followed
by debt for equity swap at the depressed prices.
If company management agrees to debt for equity
prices at the obviously depressed prices with clear
evidence that it was manipulated down by shorts
(a huge percentage of last two weeks "supply"
of shares was short sales); that would prove
beyond doubt that E*Trade Management is working
as an accomplice in a plan to defraud E*Trade
shareholders and letting other parties buy E*Trade
on cheap.
Given the strengthening balance sheet,
increasing revenues and customer base,
and reducing mortgage losses as evidenced
by last quarter's conference call; there is
NO IMMEDIATE need to reduce debt by equity
swaps.
At this point, I suspect that people shorting
this stock are the same people who are going
to acquire shares in debt to equity swaps
and are not concerned about having to "cover"
their shorts. By rewarding them with stock
at cheap prices, the CEO would essentially
be participating in such plan and violating
fiduciary duty towards share-holders.
I would like to plead the CEO and E*Trade
management/BOD in this open
letter NOT to approve ANYMORE debt for
equity swaps in near future until the stock
price has stabilized at a normal level.
- Quasi
P.S.: This is going to various forums,
Investor relations at E*Trade (previous
emails to them have gone unanswered) and
SEC both as an open letter to CEO and a
possible "pre-warning"... about a crime about
to be committed.
I had NO TROUBLE opening the e-trade IRA (took 10 minutes). and the customer service in my opinion has been outstanding every time i have called in whether it was for information about their accounts or info on how to use their platform. Everyone was helpful and clear.
The only problem I had was that when I first opened a Savings account with Etrade last October, it took them a couple weeks to mail out the info to me. Other than that, everything has been great.
Additionally, as a satisfied customer, I have bought and sold their stock a few times within its price range over the last couple months for nice gains.