Will Microsoft Walk Away From Yahoo!?

As outlined in our recent letter to the Yahoo Board, unless we make progress with Yahoo towards an agreement by this weekend, we will reconsider our alternatives. We will provide updates as appropriate next week. These alternatives clearly include taking the offer to Yahoo shareholders or to withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunities...

- Chris Liddell, CFO, Microsoft (MSFT), in Microsoft’s earnings conference call Thursday April 24

If we have not concluded an agreement within the next three weeks, we will be compelled to take our case directly to your shareholders, including the initiation of a proxy contest to elect an alternative slate of directors for the Yahoo! board.

- Steve Ballmer, CEO Microsoft, in a letter to Yahoo!’s (YHOO) board, Saturday April 5 - three weeks ago tomorrow

Even though Microsoft’s offer to Yahoo! represents compelling value by almost any measure, I am starting to believe, along with others, that this deal isn’t going to get done.

What it comes down to is that Yahoo! regards Microsoft as the anti-thesis of everything it is and everything the company stands for. Microsoft is the old guard, the status quo, the epitome of corporate, while Yahoo! regards itself as innovative, young and entreprenurial. Jerry Yang doesn’t want any part of Microsoft - no matter what the price.

On the other hand, Microsoft senses this, it understands that Yahoo!’s response is rooted in disdain, and its pride is hurt. It has put forward an incredibly generous offer for Yahoo! including the promise of a combined company to take on Google (GOOG). It has only been made to feel like untouchables for doing it.

At this point, like any spurned suitor, it is probably inclined towards the attitude of “Well, we don’t need you anyways” and walking away (for another application of dating psychology to financial markets see my “How Not To Break Up With Your Girlfriend,” Top Gun FP, December 12, 2007).

The three-week deadline referenced in Balmer’s Saturday April 5 letter is tomorrow. And in the conference call yesterday evening, CFO Chris Liddell said that unless they make progress by the weekend, Microsoft will reconsider its options including taking the offer to Yahoo! shareholders or walking away.

If it does rescind its offer, Yahoo!’s share price will collapse. Yahoo! shares closed around $19 on January 31, the day before Microsoft made it’s $31 a share cash and stock offer.

Microsoft shares, on the other hand, will probably jump. Its shares closed at $32.50 on January 31, but the $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! has ruined the stock.

Disclosure: Top Gun is long Microsoft shares and short Yahoo! shares.