Barron's says the U.S. dollar could gain 15% vs. the euro over the next year.
While the Fed is more-or-less at the end of its rate-cutting cycle, European central banks are still on the precipice of their credit crisis. As the spread in interest rates begins to narrow -- and as fickle investor sentiment makes an abrupt about face -- the dollar should rise, it says. Commodity stocks and overseas earners like Mosaic (MOS) and Halliburton (HAL) will likely fall as commodities prices fall and foreign earnings become less lucrative. Other stocks with much to lose from a rebounding dollar include Apache (APA), Freeport-McMoran (FCX), Southern Copper (PCU) and Bunge (BG).
"Negatives about the dollar are more fully discounted compared to the potential positives," Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler says. 50% of global money managers said in an April survey the dollar is undervalued, while an amazing 71% think the euro has overshot.
Things could still get worse in the short-term, but Barclay's David Woo says one of three things could rekindle the dollar: a commodities crash; a major drop in U.S. stock markets that leads to a global economic slowdown; or a continued rise in long-term interest rates even as the Fed keeps short-term rates low.
Despite concerns about the dollar losing its coveted "global currency" status, the IMF noted that dollar reserves were steady at 64% even after its recent plunge, suggesting central banks are in no rush to dump the dollar.
Barron's has been unwavering in its case for lower commodity prices.
Here's a sampling of some pretty diverse opinions about the dollar and where it's headed:
- Kathy Lien thinks the amount of reserves held in euros will rival dollar reserves within the next 10 years.
- Michael Shedlock agrees with Barron's: He anticipates a dollar bounce, but notes traders will have to be flexible.
- Blogger Seven Days Ahead thinks there's no stopping the euro.
- Robert Tabloid thinks we've got it all wrong: All fiat currencies will continue to go down in terms of buying power.
- Bespoke refrains from making any forecast, but takes a hard look what investors can expect in commodities and oil if the dollar were to actually start going up.