The Fed's One and Done Cut - Fast Money Recap (4/25/08)

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Friday, April 25 Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.

Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO)

The group was not worried about MSFT weak sales and Guy Adami suggested looking toward guidance for next year, which is strong. He added the stock is a definite buy and Jeff Macke said he bought some on Friday. Karen Finerman thinks MSFT should exchange its Yahoo offer for cash and stocks, and Macke said he sold off his remaining Yahoo shares.

Pride (PDE), Transocean (RIG), Noble (NE) and Oil Service ETF (OIH)

On news a U.S cargo ship shot at two Iranian speedboats, oil rose to nearly $120, and CNBC's Addison Armstrong thought it was interesting that 24-hour old news should move oil prices so significantly. He believes in oil, and doesn't think the dollar will remain strong. Addison is bullish on natural gas, and he predicts futures contracts will trade up to $11.70. He said major speculators were net short by a record high amount. Pete Najarian noted speculation about a deepwater supply close to Brazil and would look at PDE, RIG, NE and OIH.

Gold and the Dollar

Both gold and the dollar jumped, but Adami says he is wary of the commodity, particularly since Dennis Gartman abandoned his bullish position on gold. Adami thinks the dollar is heading towards a bottom and think commodities will suffer. Macke said the dollar has already bottomed, because oil and the dollar were trading similarly and up.

Chart of the Day: Potash (POT), Monsanto (MON)

On POT's chart, Najarian said not stock can just keep moving up, and he still likes the valuations of agriculture stocks. He recommended a Vanity Fair article on Monsanto.

On Track: Burlington Northern (BNI), Trinity (TRE), Wabtech (WAB)

Najarian said rails are moving thanks to agriculture and coal, and Adami would look at BNI which is reporting on Tuesday, and would sell on gains. He added TRE and WAB are going higher.

American Express (AXP), Mastercard (MA), Wachovia (WB), Goldman Sachs (GS)

Guy Adami said AXP's "surprising earnings" mean good things for MA, and for those wanting to go return to the financial sector WB is a good first move. Macke says GS has bottomed.

Federal Reserve

MKM Partner’s Chief Economist Mike Darda said that the newest Fed cut is expected to be "one and done," at a low 25 basis points. He doesn't expect further emergency interest rate reductions and added current interest rates are already well below the current rate of inflations. He says any additional cut will mean dissension at the Fed.

Media: Viacom (VIA), Discovery (DISCA), CBS (CBS), Disney (DIS)

Lehman Brother's Media analyst Anthony DiClemente expects good things from VIA's earnings report and thinks DISCA will continue to outperform. He says CBS is too levered to radio and TV. Although DIS is performing well, it may have difficulty with comparisons.

Take-Two (TTWO), Electronic Arts (ERTS)

Controversial entertainment phenomenon, Grand Auto Theft !V is due for release on Tuesday, and Jeff Macke says TTWO is betting the house on this game with expected sales of $400 million which surpasses Hollywood blockbusters' openings. TTWO is hoping profits from the game will prevent it from being bought by ERTS.

Neil Koehler, CEO of Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)

Koehler responded to Texas Governor Rick Perry's protest against the effect of the government's ethanol policy on food prices by saying that ethanol is needed in the current energy crisis. When Najarian asked Koehler about liquefied coal, the CEO stressed the need to move away from fossil fuels and to use renewable sources, such as corn; "It is lower than the cost of gasoline and it provides significant environmental and economic benefits,” he said.

Final Trade: Macke: Sell Activision (ATVI), Najarian: Disney (DIS)

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Comments

[Whisper OnThe Wind]

Other rumor mills say the Fed won't cut at all this time. Personally, although the rate cuts are helping some people, they are killing my CDs and money market funds. I've reduced those to the minimum, and have invested the balance in some stocks that have been doing better, but in the meantime my available cash is depleted. I can't wait until the rate cuts are over and we're back on the upward track.