Oil's Bull Now Double the Average in Gains and Length

Since 1986, the average bull market (20% rally preceded by a 20% decline) in oil has lasted 242 calendar days and averaged a gain of 67.85%. The current bull market in oil started on January 18, 2007, and to its peak on April 22nd, the commodity rallied 136.47%. That makes the current rally more than double the average in gains and nearly double the average in length.

Below we highlight stocks in the S&P 500 Energy sector that are up the most during oil's bull market (as of 4/24). As shown, CNX is up the most at 157%, followed by NOV at 155%. RRC, HES and EOG round out the top five. These stocks have had huge rallies, and when energy prices do pull back at some point in the future, these top performers will most likely struggle.

Comments

[Ames Tiedeman:]

Oil is due for a pull back soon.

2008 Apr 28 07:24 PM

[Kunst:]

Yep. Buy low, sell high. Which do you think we have now?

2008 Apr 29 02:05 AM

[Big Lab:]

You can't just say "oil is due for a pullback". The "rise" in oil prices has been attributed in part to the weak dollar. It may cost more DOLLARS to buy a barrel of crude, but it still costs pretty much the same amount of EUROS...YEN...POUNDS.

We can't declare a high in oil prices until the dollar shakes off the cobwebs. Today's Fed decision will likely put further pressure on inflation, but from a high-level perspective that's the least of the dollar's problems.

The dollar is in a downward spiral, and until one sees strength in it, one should not declare a top. That's called gambling, and you're likely to get better odds going to the Blackjack table.

2008 Apr 29 08:30 AM

[Makinmoney:]

Transocean will earn $14.06 this year and $16.66 next. Trading at 8.9 forward P/E and completely booked through 2010. RIG still has lots of sea legs.

2008 Apr 29 10:10 AM

[Makinmoney:]

Also, I don't care if oil is $200, $100, or $70. They still have to keep searching for it, so the oil servicers and drillers will continue to thrive.

2008 Apr 29 10:13 AM

[Philip Obal:]

Should have put a PE and Div Yield on the table. Could have helped others cull through a potential list better.

2008 Apr 29 12:00 PM

[gpeters:]

the article's author needs to study a bit more history.
the oil bull of the 70's went from 1971 to 1980 and the price of oil
went from $1 to $32. that is an increase of more than 3000%.
...the direct result of decades of money supply increases and
fiscal irresponsibility in washington.

2008 Apr 29 01:05 PM

[norway:]

Hi. Many Good comments here. Do u Know a company Called Nornew.

Take a look , ill say its an undiscovered Moneymaker in the Marcellus Play.

This is an info site made by stock keepers.

norse.wikispaces.com

2008 Apr 29 05:05 PM

[Ames Tiedeman:]

Oil is pulling back. Target 100

2008 Apr 29 08:23 PM

[Big Lab:]

Toe Knee is correct. See today's action for support:

There is glaring weakness in the energy (-4.1%) and materials (-2.5%) sectors, partly attributable to a strengthening dollar. The dollar index is up 1.0% this session to 73.2. The dollar index is now at its highest level in one month.

2008 May 01 01:57 PM

[sunrises:]

Rig a favorite all around will continue to sizzle through this summer. Costs keeps reducing. Target range $159 to $196.

early target already achieved.

2008 May 09 01:31 PM