Visa Stock: Buy with Caution
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After reporting earnings after the close Monday, Visa Inc. (V) traded in a schizophrenic pattern Tuesday, ending the day at a new record high. The stock closed at $80.88 which is 84% above the offering price for those of you keeping score at home. This was after gapping down more than three dollars shortly after the opening bell. Traders initially had a bit of trouble deciding whether the earnings report was net positive or negative, but by the end of the day, it appears Wall Street is happy with the numbers.

Digging into the statistics, the company reported pro-forma earnings of 0.52 on revenues of $1.5 billion dollars. Management said that the strength was broad with contributions from service fees, data processing fees and international transaction fees. However, a Wachovia analyst pointed out that the results were primarily driven by price increases which originally took place in June and so have yet to factor into year over year numbers, as well as lower than expected incentive fees. It would be much more impressive to see strength due to a strong uptick in transaction volume, but the higher revenue is still a positive.
One of the issues that makes Visa especially difficult to analyze is that the company reports operational performance on a trailing quarter basis. So, while the report was for the second quarter (ending March 31), many of the metrics are only available for the quarter ending Dec 31.
Specifically, the payment volume was $681 billion which is up 19% over last year, total cards in circulation amount to 1.6 billion which is up 16%, and total transactions processed were 11 billion up 16%. However, since these figures are over 3 months old, it is difficult to see what kind of trends have already begun surfacing in a weakening economy which included a major financial institution failure and an unprecedented decline in consumer confidence.
The tone of the conference call appeared constructive with management cautiously optimistic as to the prospects for the rest of the year. While pointing to a weakening economic backdrop and possible slowdown in the second half, the company is still expected to meet its long-term stated goals:
- Revenue growth of 11-15%
- EPS growth of 20% or better
- Operating margins in the low 40% range
- Annual free cash flow above $1 billion
It is also noted that the company processes an estimated 40% of volumes from non-discretionary spending, which should help to insulate the company from a weakening economy. Similarly, 36% of the cost structure is characterized as variable meaning management has some element of discretion and could pull back if revenue were to begin to lag expectations.
Speaking of discretionary costs, advertising expense came in a bit weaker than the Merrill Lynch analyst expected. While reducing this cost had the effect of beefing up the margins, advertising will almost certainly pick back up in the second half as the Olympic events will be a strong venue for the company to market its brand. Investors are likely pricing in a strong period during the Olympic games and it will be interesting to see how the global economic picture fits into the scenario. In the meantime, the stock is trading at a healthy multiple and has had a very strong run since the IPO. It would not be surprising to see the stock correct from current levels and I would play the name with caution.
Disclosure: Author has a position in Visa.
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This article has 49 comments:
I really don't appreciate articles that just throw out a few factoids and really don't go out on a limb- but at least this author is not slamming the stock without providing a basis for doing so- as most seeking alpha articles have done.
My one complaint is that I really don't believe any of the so called 'authors' don't seem to own any stock in any of the cos they 'cover'- that, and the fact that very few have any financial experience- and if they do- its skimpy at best.
Bottom Line- I have been a V buyer since the IPO and own several thousand shares - AND trade the stock daily. This is a great company with a lot of shares outstanding and a few lawsuits ahead of it. Once you get past that and look at the business mode, growth prospects, market share, and name brand recognition- you have a wonderful opp to buy into this company now. I would recommend that you buy on dips - look for a 3/4$ correction this week as scared (small) money pulls their profit out as the stock has had a very quick run-up. BUT- 42000000 shares traded hands yesterday and that was not retail money running those shares up. Institutional ownership is still very small (post-ipo)- less than 5%- and they are starting to buy.
Hope for a correction this week as it will be your last opp to buy this stock on a dip before it hits $100.
Att: Useless talking heads (especially CNBC bores and whores)
Re: V
We get it ! V has a very high P/E . Thankfully, most of us do NOT listen to or read your mundane, uninformative, repetitious rantings. The stock is only up 84% since the IPO ..We are making money and your useless mutterings have nothing to do with that fact. Please, stop pounding on V..Just go away and keep quiet .
www.investorslive.com/blog/tag/v /
Don't listen to the people that write these articles
They have to write something everyday and really don't know what is going on
TKTK53
I was trading Visa on day one, and overall, I continue to be bullish on the stock. However, l trend to agree with you about using caution as we move forward from the first earnings report. We simply don’t have enough history and current data to determine Visa’s market profile.
There are a host of major entities that have a lot of money riding on this horse.
The scale of the investments by sovereign funds, hedge funds, investment firms, wealthy individual investors, and major companies that may or may not be in financial stress is staggering, and many of these investors have a hair trigger.
The capacity of them to manipulate the pricing and volume, and the need for them to protect their massive investments could mean that we will see some fairly significant swings until a 3 or 4 earnings history is established.
The valid observation of the Wachovia analyst (June price increases influencing normal/average revenues), and your comments about how difficulty reporting operational performance on a trailing quarter basis go a long way to establish a cautious optimism regarding the trading ranges.
That caution cannot be addressed until we establish that history that I am talking about, and that won’t happen until we see the next two or three earning reports.
Additionally, let’s not forget the consumer side of the equation.
The companies management, consumer patterns, and overall world market volatility that the next two(2) Visa will address should be very telling as to what we can expect from Visa for the rest the year.
Given that, I expect Visa to briefly move back into the high $70’s, and then begin to establish a trading range of around $83 to $95.
There may be some spikes on the upside and downside of that range(hedge funds or economic events), but I question as to how much these huge investors are going to want to play with this stock until we get the history that we need to establish Visa’s profile.
Stacked up and TKTK, sorry if this isn't what you are looking for in a report. Hopefully I will hit something next time that gives you some better insight.
One point of interest is that the options trading on Visa have very large premiums. For educated investors, there is intriguing opportunities by setting up volatility based positions using call options, put options and stock in conjunction with eachother.
Again, thanks for the comments,
Zach
zachstocks.com
84 + at 11:25am
I can now say that I have made more money buying and trading this stock than I WILL EVER PAY TO CREDIT CARDS FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE...........
I love getting my money back- I have a Visa logo as my screensaver -
Next stop 100............
I assume investors try this tacktic as well since the after hours trading the stock dropped by about $5/6... Only to find it come back at the bell....
Insiders bought a lot of this stock in the past few months, and a big chunk of the CEOs compensation is performance based- which is a positive.
What is truly unique about V- is that unlike 99% of the IPOs hitting the market- the major shareholders have a 3 YEAR lock up on their shares instead of the traditional 6 month restriction. This is HUGE- and has not been discussed nearly enough-
I see this stock hitting 100$ within the next 2 quarters (if not 1- the way things are going). The big buyers are looking to 2009- which is expected to be MUCH stronger than 2008...and I don't see them popping in and out until then.
Billyray- just sit tight bro- as of RIGHT NOW you are still ahead almost a 1$ even if you did get in at 83$ - now hold on for the 17$ ride........
By the way 17 is my roulette number and has been my lucky number for life (and I always make money at roulette)- so if you believe in signs thats a good one!
Good luck guys- we've got 16$ to go at the time of this post------keep it comin' VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
Visa (V) – A 2.4% gain for its shares to $82.79 appears to have jump-started the speculative appetites of call traders in Visa. With nearly 130,000 options trading by noon, more than 4 times as many calls are trading as puts, and these at the out-of-the-money strikes we observed prior to its earnings announcement earlier this week. Two-way traffic is occurring at strikes of 85 and 90, while the 95 call strike attracted plenty of buyers at $1.05. Can Visa hit $100 in May? Traders have bet on that possibility more than 3,700 times today even though the 20-cent price of that position reflects just a 6% probability of it actually coming true.
Short position in Visa
Write a negative article to reduce share price
Market rallys to new highs...........priceless!
Anthony DUDlani - can't face us either WE won bro- V won -
Pnovotny- you wanna know the funny thing about seeking alpha- I have yet to see one writer that actually has a position in ANY of the V posts...........
One last thing guys- and this is BIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGG
My wife is Brazilian- and I spent a lot of time in S America - and started following Brazilian companies 3 years ago- After Petrobras and brazilian stocks in general got beaten up- I went big recently - something very BIG happened today:
SandP upgraded Brazil's credit rating to investment grade TODAY-
The Bovespa jumped to its all time high today 6% today- Brazil is the second best major stock index this year (ours is the first believe it or not). Anyway- here is a link to what happened to Brazilian Adrs today (brazilian companies traded in the US ):
www.stocksabroad.com/modules.php?name=Br...
An easy way to play the Brazil market is EWZ (an ETF of all the major players)- I went big- and YES- the market had a big move today- BUT I think there is a lot of room and I expect that EWZ will break 100 in the next few days (from around 90 now).......
As far as V- here is my take- we have $17 to go until we hit 100$ - which i expect on the outside to take two quarters (but because this stock has done such exceptional things- it could happen within 1 quarter). If you can buy it and not have to worry day-to-day its still a great play. DO NOT expect it to continue as it has short term- the market will take a breather on this play- and I expect we will still see some gains short term but more like a dollar or two at a time and not 3-5........
Visa is a no brainer just like Mastercard was... and now it's at $278.16. I'm sure these authors also had all their negatorious or pessimistic opinions of that stock also. Don't get me wrong it's ok to cautious or a bit affraid when investing in any stock, nothing is a guarantee.
That said, Visa is a point of entry for charging no more no less, it's not a completed take, and therefore has little if no risk. Society will never stop charging we are infact increasing our reliability on credit going towards a CASHLESS SOCIETY, and just like MasterCard, Visa will post most of its gain from overseas. So PLEASE with all the P/E is to high etc., No matter what the authors would like this stock is headed up fast, so better to get in while its still under $100 p/s I believe in 12 months from now it will be thru the ROOF catching up to mastercard, but it will surpass MA.
Have you all seen the new cool jazzy Visa commercials, the guy goes to pay next with a check or cash, and the whole line backs up to wait on him. This is just the subliminal way to prepare us for a cashless society headed towards Bible Prophecy.
My point is... credit use will increase 2 fold within the next few years, especially in a down economy you will use the card more, and who are the biggest providers in the WORLD Visa, Mastercard.
Why is it that the major shareholders of Visa cannot sell any of their shares for three years when most everyone else only has to wait 6 months? What is the reasoning behind this and why Visa?
Thanks for all your insight by the way. It is much appreciated.
A three year restriction was put in place for a few reasons:
A) The member banks recieved 10billion dollars as part of the proceeds from the IPO. Normally major shareholders would have a 180 day restriction - but in this case a majority of the funds were paid out of the proceeds of the offering by those major (selling shareholders).
B) Because the major shareholders retain such a significant block of shares a 6 month restriction could have been adverse to new shareholders.
C) V wants to resolve current and pending litigation to provide a more stable marketplace.
D) This was worked out amongst the major shareholders prior to the underwriting.
E) Many of the Class B and Class C shares will be bought back or converted, and some are being converted back at less than a 1 to 1 ratio.
As far as what is standard - this is a VERY rare circumstance- The LEGAL requirement is a 6 month lockup. This is very strong- as it provides a much more stable market for the shares. Additionally- even if the major shareholders could sell they most likely wouldn't kill the golden goose. V was one of the best things that could have come at the absolute best time. The V offering greatly enhanced the balance sheets of banks at a time when they were in need. These are some of the happiest shareholders of any company right now- AND they will most likely retain a majority of their shares even when they can sell because by that time:
V will have an even bigger market share.
V will have concluded most of their litigation.
V will be generating more revenue and bigger profits.
September 2008 : Visa is still fighting a similar antitrust lawsuit filed by Discover Financial
Services. That case is scheduled to go to trial next September.
CEO Joseph Saunders has promised to remain on the job until May 15, 2009.
Insider Trading of V @ www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=00014031...
Insider Trading of MA @ www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=00011413...
Analyst for Visa has came out with a BUY rating now, I think they learned from mastercard. However, I am suprised that some of the analyst target price is between 75-90 (depending on the analyst). Although they have to take thier earning/expense/valuation/etc.. I expected the target price to be $100 or higher. There is no reason to think that Visa cant get to that within 1 year, especially with Olympics and projected growth in Asia.
Here is another kicker..... When these stocks do stablize in about 1-2 years, Visa-europe will join Visa INC and then there will be another rally. Although there are litigation, tightening restriction on credit card from gov't, I dont see the growth of credit cards slowing down, especially in asia. There will continue to be huge growth.
This has been the largest investment in the stock market that i have ever made, and it has paid off BIG. I actually thought about selling half of my shares b/c of all these negative articles on Seeking Alpha. I thought the authors were REAL analyst who knew about VIsa and the stock market as it was there child.....BOY were they wrong. All you had to do was use your intuition and good judgement to see that this stock was good from day 1. If mastercard can do it, who to say Visa cant. Especially since Visa owns more of the market and has better name recognition. I bet if you were to ask MA investors if they thought MA would ever have a run as it had...and most probably all of them would say NO. There is no reason to think that VIsa CANT match MA. Yes visa has more outstanding/floating shares but visa is also 3X bigger than MA.
One of the articles on SA claimed that if Visa was to increase by 5X (as MA did) then it would be right behing XOM (exxon) and GE in terms of the largest market cap. I dont see a reason why it cant be in the same league as them. In fact Visa probably has more name recognition worldwide than exxon or GE.
In all this stock will be at $200+ in several years. And when it does I will be getting myself a lamborghini or ferrari. Now that i think about it i may even get both......Thank to VISA.
If this is your primary concern- I would stay away from Oil cos, tobacco cos, banks, brokerages, insurance companies , and ag- as they are all subject to either or both- regulation and legal action. Don't forget the winner of the litigation record- Wal Mart- (5,000. pending lawsuits). I guess you can invest in Hasbro(woops- scratch that- they may get sued for having lead in their toys). Maybe dog food cos- everyone has a dog (oops - forget that one to they are poisening animals). Maybe drug cos (oh, no - too many lawsuits there too)-
GET THE PICTURE. If you have money - there are 100,000 parisites (lawyers)- passing the bar on the way to their next meal ticket every day.
If you don't want to invest in, or don't believe in V- thats fine- but the legal issues are not a big deal. They set aside 3bb- and said they would raise more money if costs went beyond that. As we have seen (FROM THE BIGGEST IPO IN HISTORY) - they will have no problem doing it......
If you are worried about it don't do it...
If you will lose sleep over it - don't do it....
If your lifestyle would change if you lost every dime - don't do it..
NOW- If you can throw it at V- and forget about it for a year- you will be a happy guy
Good Luck
PS- You might find another company and try to diversify........
You probably made somewhere between 1-2K depending at what price you purchased it and although Visa is a great prospect and great investment, you may not want to put "ALL" your money into it. Im no financial advisor but thats my take, b/c at the end of the day its still a risk. My take is if you lose all your money today would it make a difference in your daily life.....if the answer is "yes" then you may not want to invest, if your answer is "NO" it doesnt affect my daily lifestyle then you should. HOwever, your young and in college and probably dont have children, wife, house payments, etc... so if you were to make a good investment such as this, than you can be ahead of the game when you graduate.
I am an MD and in my field there are law suits every seconds. there is no such thing as a litigation free company ( i bet red cross has a lawsuit).
To the kid. . . put all you got in here, so long as you dont need any of it right away. . . .you wont be sorry
Visa is an Animal and will be at 200 bucks in no time. Sure its gunna cool off, it has to and will do so around 100.
It will be 150 175 200 its only a matter of time!
at $63 ya it was risky.
Not Now Though!! :)
Visa dropped two dollars to 85.40 today hahahahahahaha
V shares dropped due to two things-
1. Congress is looking to regulate how much a credit card ISSUER can up a person's interest rates in the event of a lower credit score. Although this will effect Credit One, Discover, and Amex - it will not effect V as V doesn't carrry balances.
2. Guidance came out with conservative estimates for the rest of the year- WHICH WAS SIMPLY A REPEAT OF WHAT WAS SAID AT THE EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL.
This is a great time to buy...........
By the way- the shares are about 82.40 in after-hours..... you still have 3 hours to buy the shares under 83- I predict that we may have one more soft day. Right now a lot of money is coming out of ag/oil/gold/money markets/etc..... Long term investors will continue to push this stock along. Don't expect to see the kind of big moves we have witnessed in the past- but you can expect to see V continue a gradual climb. Whenever you see a 2 or 3 dollar pullback it is good to add to your position.
i agree this is close to the best price were gunna see. . .think im gunna snatch up a few more!!!
Note to new investors: Do not go into this with unrealistic expectations.....IE- don't expect V to double in the next 6 months. Do expect a continual upward climb (with speed bumps (Friday)- along the way- use the dips as buying opps to gradually add to your position. You can't go wrong...... But continue to be careful coming into the next week. The dow has been on a 3 week tear, and money is cycling continuously - much more so now than in the past. Because we are in a multi-year commodity cylce funds could come back into oil/gold/metals/ag as fast as it came out of. Also there could be some punishing economic news coming out this week. Just be careful- buy on dips- accumulate and don't stick your neck out too far........
The best is yet to come.......
Its like Warren Buffet said: I would rather have a piece of the Hope Diamond than all of a lump of quartz.......
stocksabroad.com (see the brazilian adr page)
Trust me- this market has 25/30% in it this year........
Visa hits an all-time closing high of 87.41$
Investors that failed to participate begin jumping of bridges around the country.........
Strong stock for the long term guys. im 24, going to be a nice addition to my down payment on a house.
Thanks VISA :)
No worries
:)
Stockmarket down- 206 points
V - UP -closing at 88.50 .........
I'll take a dollar on a day when 90$ of investors got trampled.
NEWS FLASH: NEW VISA BLOG AVAILABLE:
Many of you will recognize my name- I’ve been posting here since day 1 of V trading-
Many on this site are derogatory toward V- and those of us that own V shares have no need for you.
We have developed an online community of V owners- and want to bounce ideas off one-another.
At this point- we are inviting up to 100 new members as ‘authors’ of the blog……..
We will expand in the future to a forum that will allow a larger number, but for now – we welcome you to come an ride the V train with us:
ADDRESS: visawinners.blogspot.com
Instructions: you may have to ‘sign in’ to post- I just set it up so please be patient-
You may need a google username (and if you do you can set it up in 30 seconds)
Who is welcome: You must own Visa shares (no limit), or an options position
Prohibited: NO NEGATIVITY- we are interested ONLY in exchanging data, trading strategies, news, events, and any other pertinent info on Vshares or options trading-buying- holding-etc…..
Positions Open:
1. Co-moderators – Due to time limitations I may not be available from time to time- a co-moderator could screen comments, answer questions, etc…
2. Options moderator- An options pro- to address all call/put questions and strategies.
3. Equities moderator- Trading strategies- technicals, and fundamentals discussions.
4. News feeds- Gather and disseminate new updates, analyst reports, economic and stock market news as it relates to V.
5. Technical assistant- To answer and address questions on posting html/graphics/links-etc.
This is a TEAM effort. There will be a 100 person limit- and if there is long-term inactivity in your posts – we will replace you with a more active member once we hit the 100 limit- (we need to exchange information to make this worthwhile for all of us).
I am inviting you to be a member of the VISAWINNERS team-
EMAIL ME AND I WILL ADD YOU AS AN AUTHOR:
jonathan@empirestatemetals.com
Jonathan