Ariba Offers Bullish History For Longs Trading Off After-Hours Earnings

| About: Ariba, Inc. (ARBA)

Ariba (ARBA) is due to report Q3 results in the extended-hours today, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are looking for a profit of $0.25 per share on revenue of $135 million.

ARBA has seen more aggressive next-day trade in 20 of the last 30 quarters. Looking deeper in to the data, ARBA has responded to earnings news with a share gain 13 times, widening that move 10 times, or 77% of the time.

As for the downside, the stock has followed evening earnings news with a decline 16 times, extending that move on nine occasions, or 56% of the time.

Separately, the stock recorded one flat evening move followed by a next-day decline.

Here's a look at the historical performance:

  • On April 26, 2012, ARBA advanced 1% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 estimates. The stock roared higher the next day, ending the April 27 regular session up 11.2%.
  • On Jan. 26, 2012, ARBA edged up 0.1% in after-hours action after topping Q1 estimates. The stock cut its upside the next day declined 6.8% by the close on Jan. 27.
  • On Oct. 27, 2011, ARBA dropped 7.7% in evening trade despite topping Q4 expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Oct. 28 regular session up 0.3%.
  • On July 28, 2011, ARBA dipped 0.1% in after-hours action after meeting EPS estimates and beating on revenue. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the July 29 regular session up 4.5%.
  • On April 28, 2011, the stock slipped 0.2% in the extended-hours period after in-line earnings and sales that beat. Shares rebounded with an 8.4% closing gain the following day.
  • On Jan. 27, 2011, the stock fell 1.6% during evening trading after meeting on earnings and beating with revenue. Shares bounced back to post a 9.3% gain the next day.
  • On Oct. 28, 2010, ARBA slipped 0.5% in evening trade despite topping Q4 estimates. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, closing the Oct. 29 regular session down 1.6%.
  • On July 29, 2010, the stock eased 0.1% after meeting with earnings but beating with Q3 revenue. Shares fell 9.1% the following day.
  • On April 29, 2010, the stock gained 1.1% during evening trading after. Shares reversed to close down 3.7%.
  • On Jan. 28, 2010, the stock edged up 0.5% after a Q1 earnings beat. Shares rose a more robust 6.7% during regular trading the next day.
  • On Oct. 28, 2009, ARBA declined 2.5% in pre-bell trade despite topping Q4 expectations. The stock continued heading lower in that day's regular session, ending down 5.2%.
  • On July 30, 2009, the stock was flat in evening trading after meeting with earnings and beating by a penny with EPS. Shares fell 3.3% the next day.
  • On April 30, 2009, the stock gained 4% after beating with Q2 EPS and meeting with revs. Shares more than doubled the next day, finishing up 9.5%.
  • On Jan. 29, 2009, the stock gained 2.9% after reporting. That gain fattened to 11.5% by the close of trading the next day.
  • On Oct. 23, 2008, the stock fell 4.2% after reporting about in line with revenue and missing with Q4 earnings. The loss swelled to 20.2% the next day.
  • On July 23, 2008, ARBA edged up 0.8% in evening trade after topping Q3 estimates. The stock soared higher the following day, rising 19.8% by the close on July 24.
  • On April 24, 2008, ARBA advanced 8.6% in evening action after topping EPS and revenue estimates for its Q2. The stock soared higher the next day, advancing 20.4%.
  • On Jan. 24, 2008, the stock edged up 0.9% during evening trading after the company beat the Street view with EPS but reports a smaller profit than a year earlier. The stock closed up 0.5% the next day.
  • On Oct. 25, 2007, the stock fell 3.5% in evening trading after ARBA beat with sales buy missed the EPS estimate by a penny. The stock rebounded to gain 6.9% the next day.
  • On July 25, 2007, ARBA eased 1.2% in the evening session after missing Q3 estimates. However, shares clawed back out of the red the next day to end the regular session up 0.5%.
  • On April 25, 2007, ARBA slipped 4.9% in after hours when the company missed Q2 sales estimates but topped on EPS. Shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 9.2%.
  • On Jan. 24, 2007, ARBA advanced 4.8% in the night session on the heels of better-than-expected Q1 results. The gains expanded in the regular session, sending the stock up 15.4%.
  • On Oct. 25, 2006, ARBA fell 7.2% in night trade after missing Q4 sales estimates although it topped Street views for profit. The shares tumbled further the next day, closing the regular session down 13.4%.
  • On the evening of July 25, 2006, the stock fell 5.8% after the company reported shy with sales but beat with earnings. Shares recovered to rally 11.6% the next day.
  • On April 26, 2006, ARBA shed 10.6% in after hours when the company said preliminary Q2 sales missed estimates but EPS without items topped forecasts. The shares rebounded some the next day, ending down 5.3% in the regular session.
  • On January 23, 2006, ARBA jumped 13.4% in night trade after topping Q2 estimates. The shares soared further the next day, closing the regular session up 24.4%.
  • On Oct. 26, 2005, ARBA advanced 6.4% in evening trade after the company reported a decline in year-over-year results but still beat expectations. It advanced further in the Oct. 27 regular session, rising 11.7%.
  • On July 21, 2005, ARBA fell 8.4% after hours after topping revenue forecasts and matching on EPS. It widened that move in the July 22 regular session, plunging 11.7%.
  • Back on April 21, 2005, ARBA fell 2.5% after hours after beating the Street EPS estimate by 1 penny. It continued in the same direction in the April 22 regular session, closing down 14.2%.
  • On the night of Jan. 31, 2005, ARBA plunged 21.3% after missing Wall Street expectations. It plummeted further in the Feb. 1 regular session, closing down 32.4%.
  • On Oct. 27, 2004, ARBA edged upward 0.8% after hours after posting break-even EPS but falling short on revenue. It expanded that move sharply in the Oct. 28 regular session, ending up 20.3% for the day.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Tagged: , Internet Software & Services, Earnings
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