A Good Time to Accumulate Positions in Small and Mid-Size Miners

Includes: DGL, GDX, GG, GLD, IAU, XME
by: Bill Cara

The FOMC report did add one interesting point. The Fed opined that high commodity prices (oil and presumably precious metals, which means the $USD would have to keep rallying) would come down in the near future. Although I too believe it, I wish the Fed would explain their rationale for important statements like that.

In any event, gold and the Euro took a tumble overnight, and the $USD moved higher. I see more losses ahead for the precious metals. The bounce that occurred in many of the goldminer stocks resulted from an over-sold condition. Did you take note of my comment that the Daily RSI-7 for Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) Wednesday before the open was down at the 20 level? It dropped lower during the morning. You might have also noted that rallies off over-sold conditions are good opportunities to find bids in a sinking market.

Finally, not to disappoint the goldbugs, I also opined that the $USD has not started a new Bull market, so this is a short-term rally that will soon be followed by another selling wave, and the timing of that reversal would be a good one to consider going back into the bullion. I can't tell you when that might be, but, knowing what to look for, I can often spot it when it happens.

As to trading the goldminer stocks at that point, I can’t say much now other than it would be a good point in time for the big capital pools to start accumulating positions in the better financed smaller and mid-size miners and explorers that are bringing in new mine production, i.e., would likely see a large earnings increase in 2009-2012. Gold and silver in the ground is money in the ground.

Thursday is May Day. Don’t labour over it. :-)