Are U.S. Jobs Recovering Or Not?

TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that the U.S. economy added 9,000 jobs in April. That would seem to be good news. It’s a significant reversal from the 234,000 jobs TrimTabs estimated were lost in the first two months of the year. Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, attributed the turnaround to easier monetary and fiscal policies.

Tomorrow, U.S. government statisticians report on payroll jobs and will likely show a loss of 75,000 jobs, going by the consensus forecast. That figure will be an error, Biderman believes, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly estimates are based on “incomplete surveys.”

Biderman thinks TrimTabs’ approach is more accurate. It estimates job losses from inflows of withholding taxes from the paychecks of all salaried U.S. workers. “Daily withheld income taxes rose 3.78% this April compared with April 2007,” said Biderman. “Growth greater than 3.7% year-over-year means the U.S. economy is adding jobs.” TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index also showed a significant increase in the availability of jobs.

It’ll be interesting to see who is right. It is to be noted that just about the same time as TrimTab’s report crossed my desk, another report came in showing a noteworthy rise in Vickers Stock Research Corp.’s Insider Sell/Buy Ratio. A rise in insider selling would seem mildly dissonant with a rise in payroll hiring?