Bernanke Fed: Still Waiting for Inflation to Moderate

Below are excerpts from two years worth of FOMC policy statements from the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve on the subject of the future course of inflation in the U.S.

With gasoline at $4 and food prices soaring, does anyone really believe that anything having to do with prices is going to moderate anytime in the foreseeable future?

Well, that is, aside from iPods and iPhones. It's too bad you can't run your car on Apple (AAPL) products or feed a family with them.

March 28, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.

May 10, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.

June 29, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.

August 8, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations...

Sep 20, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Oct 25, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Dec 12, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Jan 31, 2007
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.

Mar 21, 2007
Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

May 9, 2007
Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Jun 28, 2007
... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.

Aug 7, 2007
... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.

Sep 18, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Oct 31, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Dec 11, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Jan 22, 2008
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

Jan 30, 2008
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

Mar 18, 2008
... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

Apr 30, 2008
... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

There appears to be no theoretical limit on how long you can continue to expect something to happen, however, practically speaking, at some point in time, people stop believing what you say.

Comments

[icandoitdon]

if we calculated inflation in the unfiltered fashion of the 70s and 80s the S&P would take a 1/4-1/3 haircut and government entitlements would be 20% higher than present.

we like our inflation numbers sanitized. reality is just too painful to endure.

[george h.]

Hyperinflation could be a Black Swan

with still high oil and food prices and an economy turning up again
(increasing stock prices already anticipate that) i can not believe in "moderating inflation"

[warren mosler]

one problem is they use crude oil and futures as a measure of price expectation.

with a non perishable commodity like crude oil, the term structure is indicative of current inventory conditions, not price expectations.

the current backwardation indicates relatively tight spot supplies, and not expectations of falling prices, as a simple point of market logic.