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I got blasted, no - torn apart - at Seeking Alpha, by
perma-bull-gold-bugs (aka the most depressing people in the world),
when I wrote that I was getting out of leveraged
gold, back as gold was moving up towards the $950 zone. I’ve never had
an “I told you so” feel better, I mean people were personally
attacking me. I’ll admit here, the call was a little lucky, but to
your face I’ll say it was 100% skill
This was after this note to readers, to buy Yamana warrants when they hit $2.25. 13 days later, they hit $4.60. (I didn’t know the call I made was going to be that good.) I took some amazing profits, and closed everything in the $4 - $4.60 range.
Unfortunately, I didn’t foresee how violent the pull-back in Yamana (AUY) was going to be, and didn’t really call that. As it has now pulled back significantly from its all-time highs, it’s obviously due to the pull-back in gold, plus Yamana has had some problems themselves.
I have never been long the stock, but some clients (who have less risk tolerance than I) have been long and have been holding along the ride up, and now the ride down to a break-even point. I did get a 21% gain for one client, honestly only by accident, because we wrote nearly at the money calls, and the stock got called away.
But, what am I getting at? What I’m trying to say is, listen to me and feel free to disagree with this next statement: Yamana is going to be okay - because none of the problems in the US that made gold go up in the first place have changed. All of those predictions for the +$1000 mark by the end of ‘08 still have merit, but nobody remembers because it, because everybody got tired of listening to everyone else screaming it 4 months ago. Thus, it’s time to buy again. The warrants are getting closer and closer to expiry, so are higher and higher risk, but I think are on the order of “cheap” again, and so is the stock.
I’ve had bad calls, and I’ve had good ones. Get over it.
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This article has 11 comments:
Regardless I really like the way you write. I like the attitude. Dave
You're my kinda person, Jeffrey!
This is usually a good sign.