Sirius, XM to Finally Announce Q1 2008 Results on May 12

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) has waited until the last possible moment to announce earnings for the first quarter 2008, and in stark contrast to what Mel Karmazin typically does, the earnings conference call will be held after the market closes at 4:30 PM. Karmazin is well known as the CEO who conducts calls at 8:00 AM prior to the market opening. The call will be on Monday, May 12, 2008.

While some would typically read into an after hours call as being negative, it is quite possible that the company is merely doing the call at this time just in case the FCC has an announcement regarding the merger prior to the call. It has been speculated by some that the company actually has two scripts prepared for the call. One if there is a merger announcement, and another if the deal is still in FCC limbo.

The call can be heard live on Sirius channel 119, or via webcast at Sirius’ website.

EARNINGS

Analyst estimates range from a loss of 9 cents to a loss of 5 cents with the consensus being 7 cents.

REVENUE

Revenue estimates range from $259 million to $278 million with the average at $272 million.

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) has also scheduled a conference call for Monday, May 12, 2008, at 10:00 a.m. ET to announce and discuss its first quarter 2008 financial results. Prior to the call, XM Radio’s first quarter 2008 results will be posted to the Company’s Web site and released to PR Newswire and First Call. The company, like Sirius's, is waiting until the last possible day to announce earnings. With respect to the timing of the call, it makes sense for XM to go first, while Sirius will follow suit a few hours later. This is a rare occasion where investors will have data and metrics from both companies on the same day.

To listen to the conference call via telephone, please dial one of the following numbers approximately 10 minutes prior to the planned start of the call.

Call-in number: [phone]
Local call-in number: [phone]
Conference ID#: 46660772

The conference call can also be accessed through a live webcast on the Company’s Web site at http://www.xmradio.com/ (click on “Investor Info” link at the bottom of the page). The webcast of the call will also be archived on the Company’s Web site.

If you are unable to participate in the scheduled call, a replay of the conference call will be available after 11:30 a.m. ET on Monday, May 12, 2008 until August 12, 2008.

Playback Numbers: [phone]
Local playback number: [phone]
Conference ID#: 46660772

EARNINGS

Earnings estimates range from a loss of 32 cents to a loss of 51 cents with the average at 39 cents.

REVENUE

Revenue estimates range from $308 million to $317 million with the average at $313 million.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Comments

[killerkaul]

RE: NotVerySmart,163888, andCos1000- What are your thoughts on buying more Siri stock just before market close on Monday May 12 prior to Mel's conference call? Merger possibilties?............ Thanks! Long Siri!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[163888]

Killerkaul, I am still holding that 5,000 I got at 2.45 and the rest of my long shares but as for buying more I'm not. I have right now over 90,000.00 SIRI and almost 30,000.00 XMSR in these speculative stocks, and that for me is enough. Thats not to say there sometime soon will not be a pop up. That is what the 5,000 shares is for, I actually only was playing the channel with 3,000 shares but when I saw it at 2.45 I had to get a little more.

[cos1000]

killerkaul... Looking at the 50 day MA for Sirius over 2 years the trend is downward. People have made money by following the 13 day MA and trading off of it. The 13 day MA is trending up and is approaching the 50 day which is great if it breaks through, at about $2.85. Good earnings might bump it to 3.05 or 3.10.

Most of the folks who like this stock think that once the merger is announced that both the 50 d MA and 200 d MA will begin to trend up for all of the reasons that you have heard. The Merger is the game changer.

Short term I would wait until after the conference call. Even after good news, over the last 2 years there has been a better opportunity to buy several days after the call than before. The merger announcement will most probably be made before the close of business Monday. Without good news this stock will pull back, with good earnings and no announcement on the merger it will pop and then pull back.

But who really knows, I just try to have a plan, sell some when its up in the price channel, say $2.90 and buy some when its down, say $2.60, if it keeps going down I increase my position. I'm just trying to make a little money while I wait. Just one man's opinion... Good Luck!

[163888]

cos1000, boy it is amazing, we have almost the same plan. I agree totally.

[killerkaul]

Thanks Guys' Guess I'm just wanting to see your merge date visions and point of view from your crystal balls. Especially with all of the increased pressure on the FCC. I swear I can smell it coming, and it smells strong to me! Run Blue Dog Run!!!

[mudslinger]

cos1000....stock price seems to be treating 2.85 like a brick wall. I would LOVE for you to be right about Monday but you can't be serious when you say "The merger announcement will most probably be made before the close of business Monday." What possible basis do you have for that assertion? Again, I would love for you to be right and there is a small chance that could happen but there's nothing that makes this coming Monday more special than any other day to the FCC.

Btw, for what it's worth (probably not much) here is an excerpt from the BusinessWeek article that just came out: "The deal was supposed to close by the end of 2007 but may not receive approval till June, if not later, says Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Blair Levin, a former FCC chief of staff. Proponents had hoped the deal would come up for discussion at a May 14 FCC meeting, but that's looking increasingly unlikely."

[163888]

mudslinger, I saw that article to, I think it will come alot sooner though, because of all the flurry of crap going on at the FCC. Most of these kinds of high profile mergers were not put on the "items in circulation" list, and were suprise announcements.

[cos1000]

Mudslinger... my statement about the merger approval being announced on Monday, before the close of day, was not meant to be prophetic. I was letting killerkaul know that there would "not" be an announcement by Mel in the call after hours announcing the merger. Merger news will most likely be out on the wires during business hours from FCC sources. So if killerkaul was going to buy stock for that reason, Mel's surprise announcement, its probably not a good idea.

In reading my comment I can see what you mean. I wish I were that tuned in, but unfortunately I'm waiting around to hear like everyone else.

[killerkaul]

Amen brother.