The Energy Department's Hat Trick of Misses

By Brad Zigler

Betting on the accuracy of oil analysts' predictions has been a losing proposition recently. The Energy Department's inventory report alone spawned a hat trick of misses.

Crude oil stocks were expected to rise by 1.4 million barrels this week, according to the green eyeshade crew. Some moderation was expected after last week's 3.9 million-barrel uptick. That guesstimate turned out to be off by a factor of four. Crude stocks swelled by 5.7 million barrels instead.

The miscalculation in gasoline stocks seemed even more egregious because insiders were on the wrong side entirely. Expecting a 400,000-barrel drawdown, they instead saw inventory levels rise by 800,000 barrels this morning. There's a threefold error.

The distillate fuel numbers, where diesel and heating oil are counted, really laid waste to the odds making, though. A goof factor of nine emerged as stocks decreased 100,000 barrels despite analysts' jawboning of an 800,000-barrel increase.

If these guys were paid on the accuracy of their forecasts, they'd all be mooching quarters at Starbucks by lunchtime.

The market focused mostly on the crude oil numbers this morning, taking the entire complex down. Energy ETFs and ETNs were lower across the board after the inventory report's release.

The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (NYSE Arca: OIL) was recovering from a weak opening when the report hit, drying bids ‘til the note reached the $97.80 level.

The PowerShares DB Oil Fund (AMEX: DBO) opened 16 cents higher at $45.28, but then gave ground to the $45 level after the numbers' release.

Similarly, the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) swooned, falling nearly a dollar to $56.72, dragging its sisters, the United States Gasoline Fund (AMEX: UGA) and the United States Heating Oil Fund (AMEX: UHN) lower.

The steep rise in crude oil prices this week, triggered by concerns over Nigerian supplies, have been accompanied by relatively modest increases in wholesale product prices, squeezing refining margins to their lowest levels of the year.

More on that tomorrow.
 

NYMEX June Crude Oil