July Auto Sales Seen Slipping From Strong Pace In June: Watch Ford, GM And Toyota

Includes: F, GM, TM
by: Selerity Research

By: Brendan Gilmartin

The leading automakers are scheduled to report monthly sales on Wednesday, August 1.

Summary: The leading automakers are scheduled to report July 2012 auto sales on Wednesday, August 1. While the Y/Y comparisons are expected to be quite healthy, the major automakers are projected to see a month over month decline, due in part to a weaker macroeconomic backdrop and anticipation for year-end incentive plans and new models.

  • According to TrueCar.com, new light vehicle sales are expected to be up 10.6% Y/Y, but down 8.8% on a sequential basis (June 2012). The yearly improvement comes thanks to new vehicle sales, despite the weak signals on the economy.
  • Edmunds.com said it sees July 2012 light vehicle sales rising 10.2% Y/Y, but down 9.2% from June 2012.
  • Kelley Blue Book reports that vehicle sales are still seen topping 14.2 million units in 2012, despite evidence of a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery. New designs and pent-up demand are also bolstering sales.

Ford Motor (F) Expected Release Time: 9:30 a.m. EST

Overview: Ford (F) is scheduled to report July sales at approximately 9:30 a.m. EST. According to Kelley Blue Book, Ford may experience flattish sales, due to recalls and anticipation ahead of the launch of the new Ford Fusion. Nevertheless, sales of the new Ford Escape model appear to be tracking quite well. In its 2Q earnings release on July 25, Ford attributed its strong performance to Ford North America and maintained its regional growth outlook for 2012.


TrueCar.com: -1.1% (Source: Truecar.com)

Edmunds.com: -2.5% (Source: Edmunds.com)

Kelley Blue Book: -0.3%(Source: KBB.com)

Technical Review: Ford Motor recently sunk to a 52-week low of $8.83, and is now off more than 15% YTD. Most technical indicators are pointing toward an oversold scenario, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to the 30-level.

(Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

General Motors (GM) Expected Release Time: 10:00 a.m. EST

Overview: General Motors (NYSE:GM) is due to report its July sales at approximately 10:00 a.m. EST. A redesign of the Chevy Malibu later this year could hold sales in check, while the company strives to maintain market share versus Toyota and other Asian competitors. Despite concerns on the macro level, GM is expected to deliver rising profits in North America, stemming in part from new model introductions later this year and full-sized pickup and SUV sales.


TrueCar.com: 0.3% (Source: Truecar.com)

Edmunds.com: -0.3% (Source: Edmunds.com)

Kelley Blue Book: 1.5%(Source: KBB.com)

Technical Review: GM shares recently sunk to a new low since its November 10, 2011 IPO. The shares are currently at a support/resistance area near $19.50 -- a key level to watch following its July sales release.

(Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

Toyota Motor (TM) Expected Release Time: 10:30 a.m. EST

Overview: Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) will post its monthly sales report between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. Toyota is seen delivering a Y/Y sales increase in the 22% - 30% range, thanks to the introduction of a newly-modeled Camry, coupled with pricing and incentive models designed to lure more North American customers.


TrueCar.com: 21.7% (Source: Truecar.com)

Edmunds.com: 29.7% (Source: Edmunds.com)

Kelley Blue Book: 28.6%(Source: KBB.com)

Technical Review: Toyota Motor ADRs recently bounced back from a multi-year low to retake the 200-Day SMA near $75 -- a key level to watch in reaction to the numbers on Wednesday. Resistance is at $78.

(Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.