Coming Soon: Global Corn-for-Sale Signs

From May 9 Worldwide Agricultural Estimates,in reference to corn 2008/2009 stocks, I quote:

Higher year-to-year beginning stock reflect this month's 100-million-bushel reduction in 2007/08 corn use for ethanol....

Translation : THIS MONTH, ESTIMATES ARE THAT ETHANOL IS USING 100 MILLION LESS BUSHELS OF CORN!!

The U.S. will be producing 7 percent less corn in 2008/2009... BUT, I quote again:

Global coarse grains production for 2008/09 is projected at 1.1 billion tons, up slightly from the current year record, despite the year-to-year decline in U.S. corn output. Foreign coarse-grain production is expected to increase 4 percent from 2007/08.

Translation : WORLDWIDE COARSE GRAIN WILL BE 4 PERCENT HIGHER YEAR-to-YEAR, there is a lot more corn being produced worldwide to compensate for U.S shift to wheat.

At these high prices for corn, it seems that a lot of worldwide poor farmers will just work the earth harder in order to compete on price. Soon, around the world will be signs " Corn For Sale."

Comments

[Tim Plaehn]

How about a link to the information? I would like to dig deeper into this news. Over projections of ethanol corn use leading to reductions in estimates?

[nickgogerty]

Plantings in the US were a little late in spring due to rain. It will be interesting to see the USDA actual plantings report, compared to estimated acreage allocations from the early spring.

For everyone's sake lets hope for a great growing season and huge harvest.

[Agman]

You have to be kidding me. This is a pathetic analysis. Overall corn stocks will be falling in 2009 to one of the lowest levels in 30 years, despite lower ethanol than initially projected this year, lower feed use and even lower exports next year (which should be questioned as China is exiting the export market and someone -- read the US -- will haveto provide those exports.) With the current planting pace, poor emergence levels and plenty of weather risk to factor in, corn prices are not going to go down much, if at all, and may go much higher in the next several months.

[Agman]

One other item -- world coarse grains are going from stocks of 165 Mil MT in 2006 and 134 this year to 127 next year. Even more scary -- world corn stocks are going from 125 Mil MT in 2006 and 109 this year to 99 next year. This is a shrinking buffer stock environment and growing demand -- making commodity prices more expensive, not less. Mr. Lahens is providing partial information because he is long PEIX. As I stated before -- pathetic.

[paultaut]

Just like the US puts pressure on individual countries, So will the world on the US...Democrats will cave.

[MNSL]

I agree with this article. In fact currently India is producing more and more corn and in addition to local consumption they are exporting to nearby counties as well. On top that now poor farmers worldwide working hard to produce more corn (maize) due to higher prices. Some governments’ already implemented plan to produce grains locally such as rice, corn etc.

Definitely there will be oversupply situation in the world market and prices will come down badly. Some counties poor farmers neglected corn planting due to low prices and now this trend has changed In addition some animal production companies already started to plant corn locally. Therefore there will be plenty of corn in the market soon and stock level will go up unexpectedly. So I agree with corn for sale.

[Agman]

"Stocks will go up unexpectedly" -- How does that happen when it takes months to grow and harvest a crop? It doesn't. It would be nice if some of you posters would understand how the markets work before you put up an opinion. What countries make up over 90% of the corn trade-- the US at 63%, Argentina at 15% and Brazil at 11%. India is not a player in the corn market. And China used to be the seond largest exporter, but now has stopped its exports out of concern for supplies in the years ahead. Where did all of Chinas customers go? To the US. Small local farmers worldwide cannot grow any signficant amounts of corn and certainly cannot supply the world export market. Stop putting out bad opinions and deal with facts of the market.