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Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call

July 31, 2012 10:00 am ET

Executives

John M. Colglazier - Vice President of Investor Relations & Communications

R. A. Walker - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Charles A. Meloy - Senior Vice President of U.S. Onshore Exploration & Production

Robert K. Reeves - Chief Administrative Officer, Senior Vice President and General Counsel

Robert G. Gwin - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance

Robert P. Daniels - Senior Vice President of International & Deepwater Exploration

Analysts

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Andrew Venker - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Bob Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division

Douglas George Blyth Leggate - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

David W. Kistler - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

John Malone - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Eliot Javanmardi - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

Joseph Patrick Magner - Macquarie Research

Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C., Research Division

John P. Herrlin - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

Operator

Good morning. My name is Steve, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, John Colglazier. Please go ahead, sir.

John M. Colglazier

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. I'm glad you could join us today for Anadarko's Second Quarter Conference Call. I'll remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures, so we encourage you to read our full disclosure on forward-looking statements on our presentation slides located on our website and see the reconciliation for the non-GAAP measures in our earnings release as well as on our web. Our executive leadership is here today, and they are ready to answer questions later in the call following the prepared remarks.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President and CEO, Al Walker. Al?

R. A. Walker

Thanks, John, and good morning. It's a pleasure to discuss with you yet another strong operating quarter. The company produced several significant accomplishments, which speaks to the power of the portfolio we've accumulated.

As a reminder, we provided a comprehensive summary of Anadarko's global E&P activities in our quarterly operations report, which is available on our website. There are 4 accomplishments we would like to bring to your attention this morning. First, record sales volumes of almost 750,000 barrel equivalents a day, which included a 20,000-barrel per day increase in higher-margin oil sales volumes over the first quarter of this year.

Second, significant free cash flow totaling $142 million. When including the collection of the first installment of the Algerian tax resolution, this amount increases to $255 million.

Three, industry-leading deepwater exploration and appraisal success continues at Anadarko. We announced our second world-class natural gas accumulation, offshore Mozambique, with discoveries at Golfinho and Atum. This new complex is estimated to hold 10 to 30 Tcf of recoverable resources and is fully contained on our block. We also have new opportunities in deepwater Côte d'Ivoire with our oil discovery. We also, in addition to that, have appraisal success in the Gulf of Mexico, with results at Vito led the partnership to increased estimated recoverable resources of the field.

And four, our continued commitment to value acceleration. We announced 2 joint venture carried interest agreements valued at about $1 billion in the aggregate for our Salt Creek Enhanced Oil Recovery project in Wyoming and our deepwater Lucius development in the Gulf of Mexico. These transactions significantly enhanced project returns in a tax-efficient manner and enable us to reinvest the avoided capital into shorter-cycle, high-return opportunities. You can anticipate we'll continue to look for ways to employ this approach elsewhere in the portfolio.

These 4 accomplishments and the consistent high level of operating performance support our confidence in our portfolio and the ability of Anadarko's people to continue delivering differentiating results today and in the years to come.

As we've done for some time, we will continue to manage capital allocation to ensure investments are directed to the highest return projects possible, while maintaining our commitment to operate within cash flow. Even though we are operating in very volatile commodity price environments, we are committed to this approach. Consistent with our philosophy, we reduced our operated rig count in the Marcellus and are reducing rigs in the Greater Natural Buttes while redirecting this activity to the core of our Wattenberg Field. The Wattenberg horizontal program is delivering the highest returns in our U.S. onshore portfolio, with the rates of return exceeding 100% at today's prices, while also to continue to leverage the competitive advantages of our midstream assets which support the pace of our drilling activities and maximize the value of our sales volumes. We locked up about 62,000 barrels per day of firm fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu back in 2002 and have acquired additional fractionation capacity.

With these actions, plus our existing firm transportation and ongoing facilities expansions, we've created a significant advantage enabling us to move our products to sell at very competitive prices. As included in last night's news release, we also took steps to further protect our 2013 cash flows by trading out of our existing 3-way collars and into 900 million cubic feet per day of fixed rate swaps at a price of about $4 per MMBtu.

Our cash position is strong, with $2.8 billion of cash on hand, and this is after reducing the outstanding balance of our revolving credit facility by $800 million during the quarter. We also want to briefly touch on the Tronox Adversary Proceeding, which I know many of you have been following in the media. We remain confident and believe when the trial resumes next week, the testimony of our witnesses will continue to support the merits of our case. As was reported, we participated in various efforts to resolve the case but have not yet been able to reach anything mutually acceptable to both parties. Though we are limited in our ability to discuss the case, we'll continue to provide updated disclosure regarding the proceeding, and any adjustments to the financial statements attached to last night's news release will be in our second quarter 10-Q.

As you know, earlier this year, we successful -- we were successful in reaching an amicable resolution to our tax dispute with Sonatrach and Algeria. Entering the second quarter, we received $113 million, which is the first collection of what will be a total recruitment of about $1 billion this year, plus an additional $700 million or so in the first half of 2013. In reaching resolution on this matter, we've been able to turn our attention to new opportunities both with Sonatrach and the state. We constructed a deep high-quality portfolio with tremendous embedded value that's designed to deliver predictable, repeatable results, giving us the confidence to increase the midpoint of our full year 2012 sales volume guidance by 3 million barrels, without this increasing any capital requirement to do so.

In the months ahead, we anticipate a number of notable catalysts that we expect to do the following: increase production in the U.S. onshore liquid-rich plays; continue a very active global deepwater exploration and appraisal program; submit a plan of development for the TEN complex offshore Ghana; and achieve first production at the El Merk project towards the end of this year. There's a lot to be excited about, and we're focused on driving value in the years and the months ahead.

With that, we look forward to answering your questions this morning. Operator?

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of David Tameron from Wells Fargo.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Quick question for you. Can we talk a little bit about -- you talked, Al, about accelerating value. Can you talk more about other potential transactions that -- I'll just leave it at that, let you have any color you want to on that case, talk about potential transactions.

R. A. Walker

Well, David, I think it's understandable that you and others are probably interested in what we may or may not do in Mozambique. The cold process has been one we've watched closely. And as you might imagine, we've been approached by a lot of people seeking interest in what might be a farm-down opportunity there. But I can only tell you that I think our history kind of speaks for itself. We've been willing and I think a pretty good architect of design around how to do things in a tax-efficient way. And I suspect Mozambique and other things in our portfolio will continue to be at the top of the list for things for us to consider. You wouldn't be surprised that we do get a lot of inbound interest on Mozambique, and a lot of people that are not in the play today would like to be in the play. So my guess is once we find the right deal that we think makes sense for us and our shareholders, we'll be inclined to pursue something if we, in fact, can find that. Other things in our portfolio -- I think what we did at Lucius here recently is a great example of things we've done in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico that we may find ourselves doing again, not just in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico but elsewhere. So I'd like to think that we've got a pretty good track record around this issue, and it's one that you should expect, as I said in the prepared comments, that we'll continue to look for ways in our portfolio to put to use.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

All right. That's helpful. And then one more question, just specific question as for the guidance going forward. Do you care to share with us your -- what your downtime assumption is as far as volume and third quarter guidance for hurricanes, et cetera, for any Gulf of Mexico disruptions?

R. A. Walker

I'll let Chuck hit that. As you know, we're pretty conservative around how we look at weather, particularly at this time of year. In some years, we're spot on with it. In some years, we're a little light and a little heavy. It just depends on weather activity. But we do have that factored in.

Charles A. Meloy

And David, I'd just say that we put the weather in the third and the fourth quarter. That corresponds to our hurricane season, as you know. And I think the thing that you ought to see in our guidance is that we're experiencing what I'd consider explosive growth in virtually every one of our significant U.S. onshore plays, and we're also seeing the benefit in the Algerian tax fee resolution like Al mentioned earlier. And it's just the great spot to be in. We're seeing records at Wattenberg, records in the Maverick production, Eagle Ford production. And we have -- and our Permian basin is also popping on records. And almost every one of those is essentially doubled from about this time last year. So we're seeing that growth. We're seeing the growing pains associated with that growth. And you'll see us have to do the tie-ins and the infrastructure expansions that are associated with those, and we bake those into our third and fourth quarter guidance. The reality is we're hopeful that we don't get any hurricanes and we'll realize that incremental volume or we're able to execute on infrastructures expansions even faster than we planned. We'll see how all that goes as we move through the third and fourth quarter.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. It doesn't sound like you want to quantify that downtime assumption in there as far as volume. I'm trying...

Charles A. Meloy

We've [indiscernible] them fast.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Venker - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

It's actually Drew Venker. You guys split from your usual practice of filing a Q at the same time as your report that you alluded [ph] to again this morning. Is there any readthrough as to the potential for the settlement or an update on the settlement regarding your -- or your estimated liability?

R. A. Walker

Well, I think you're right. Your observation is correct. It is a little bit of a departure. And I think what I might do, if you don't mind, I'm going to let Bobby Reeves, our General Counsel, answer that.

Robert K. Reeves

As Al stated earlier, we're really confident in the merits of the case in the Tronox Adversary Proceeding, but we continue to seek a resolution there. Just like I talked about on the last quarterly conference call, there's lots of reasons we believe we're -- we have the right side of the equation in the merits of the case. There's no trial this week due to a previously scheduling order issued by the judge, but we start again next week. We believe our witnesses will continue to show the merits of our case and demonstrate that Tronox was adequately capitalized at the time of IPO and that Kerr-McGee was not in any way responsible for their subsequent financial troubles or bankruptcy. All that being said, while we remain optimistic about the case, we are also continuing to seek a reasonable resolution. And we will be filing our 10-Q timely on or before August 9. But we do believe that it was important to try to get the best clarity in the 10-Q about the case. So we will be updating our disclosure as of that time and also any adjustments to the financial statements that were attached to the press release last night.

Andrew Venker - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

All right, that makes sense. And I guess in the past, you guys have talked about selling down part of your Mozambique discoveries. I guess, so is anything changed there? Would you be open to selling your entire stake? Or would you expect to retain at least some interest?

R. A. Walker

I think the best way I can answer that is we always look at whatever we think maximize the shareholder value. And I really believe that to be sort of the guiding light for how we look at either farm-downs or divestitures. I do think, if you look at the track record, we've had more of a history of monetizations through farm-downs as well as promotes. And that, more likely than not, would be our preference whether it's Mozambique or other places that we see ourselves wanting to continue to be a part of the operations.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs.

Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Can you talk to the CapEx trajectory that you expect for the second half of this year relative to the $3.6 billion or so that was spent in the first half and what's driving any changes from that trajectory? And then it may be too early, but any early look on how you're thinking about 2013 in the context of your growth plans in the various farmouts that you've executed or are contemplating?

R. A. Walker

Well, as you can imagine, particularly given the comments I made in the prepared remarks, staying within cash flow is sort of a guiding principle for us. But with that, I'll let Bob Gwin, our CFO, answer the question specifically.

Robert G. Gwin

Brian, for 2012, the second half is roughly equivalent to the first half if you adjust that first half number for about $220 million of Western Gas Partners expenditures that were included in our consolidated results for the first half of the year. As for 2013, we fully expect to spend within cash flow again. And beyond that, we're not really providing guidance in terms of how it might grow between here and next year. We expect to announce it very early next year, along with a broader corporate update like we did this past year.

Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Great. And then resource-wise, you talked in your operational update about strong well results at drilling the Geneseo formation in above the Marcellus. Can you add a little bit more color on kind of what you saw there relative to what you would see out of a Marcellus well, a. And then b, your plan for drilling additional wells and what aerial extent you think could apply there?

Charles A. Meloy

Brian, this is Chuck. We actually have a single well that was producing. It's -- the earlier results from that are extremely good. We're making $6 million to $7 million a day from the well. It looks strong. We have a large area in what we call the Sproul [ph] Forest. And it looks to contain most of our Geneseo prospectivity. It's early days. It's dry gas. We'll put it in our portfolio, and work it in. I think the advantage it has, it's a little shallower, a little cheaper to develop. But we're not pushing that right now just because of the price realization on gas in that area.

Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

And what gas price would you get more excited within the context of your portfolio about drilling either a combination of more Marcellus or Geneseo well?

Charles A. Meloy

I'd say between 4 and 5.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Brackett from Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division

I had a couple questions on China and the status of Liwan deepwater drilling there. And what are your -- what's your game plan for Brazil going forward?

R. A. Walker

Well, if I could, I'm going to let Bob Daniels handle the first part of that question as it relates to the drilling of 43/11, and I'll have Bob Gwin answer the question about where we are with Brazil in terms of the activities there that we've historically discussed in terms of being a divestiture. Bob?

Robert P. Daniels

Yes, Bob, this is Bob Yes, Bob, this is Bob Daniels. Regarding 43/11, we do have a rig under contract. Originally, we had it scheduled to spud about now. And it happens to be typhoon season over there. They decided that given the depth of the water and distance from shore and everything else, that they would like to drill that later in the year. So they farmed the rig out to another party for several wells and will come back probably about November and spud the 43/11 well.

Robert G. Gwin

And then this is Bob Gwin on Brazil. BP as operator is working with Petrobras on the unitization potential for one of our blocks down there. And so we're continuing to assess what unitization could mean for us and how it would affect value. And so therefore, we're currently in a holding pattern with regard to any divestiture. Although it, still of course, would remain on our list of expected divestitures in the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Bank of America.

Douglas George Blyth Leggate - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Only couple of things for me, please. On the volume guidance, can I just explore this a little bit because it looks like Caesar/Tonga had a pretty stellar second quarter, at least start up. My understanding was you'd originally talked about 40,000 barrels a day of capacity on Constitution, and that looks like that's moving higher. So can you talk a little bit about what we can expect for the trend there on the plateau volume rate? And if you wouldn't mind glaring [ph] that into why the liquids volume guidance was -- appears to be down so much in the second half, I'd appreciate some color.

Charles A. Meloy

Doug, this is Chuck. Caesar/Tonga is doing phenomenal. We have 3 wells out there. It hit its peak very quickly. We ran right on up to capacity. It varies a little bit day-to-day with regard to how Constitution/Ticonderoga are doing on the platform. We do -- there's a lot of acid work and just general maintenance-type work that we do on Caesar/Tonga. So whenever we have some incremental capacity, we can shove some more Caesar/Tonga through the facility, so that gives us a little variability. But the wells are doing phenomenal. We still expect them to stay on peak for quite some time, and we're actually going to drill a fourth well here in the third, late third quarter, early fourth quarter and then it'll be complete and come online early next year, thereabouts. And that will give us some even incremental capacity. And we're looking at expansion of the capacity on Constitution. We'll see some natural expansion just as Constitution and Ticonderoga decline with time, and we'll do our best to fill that in. With regard to the guidance again, the future oil guidance is dictated by our assumptions associated with weather. And you've seen all the reports. It's an active season. And so we've taken into account that in our -- the forward guidance. The other thing that plays into that, we're seeing our normal standard summertime maintenance in China and Alaska. And then we have, as I mentioned earlier, we have a lot of work going on in the fields at Wattenberg and Maverick. We're tying in a lot of oil infrastructure. And with that comes some downtime, and we're baking that into account. And there's no reflection on how the fields are doing because they're going up and they're growing tremendously as you can see in the ops reports. So it's just a -- it's where all these things come together. And the bottom line is our fields are doing fantastic and we're seeing the growth and we're also seeing the growing pains, and that comes a little downtime with it. But I would not be overly concerned about oil volumes. It's just a matter of timing, and we just to get it -- get through this growing pain and move on. And you'll see outstanding results from all of those fields.

Douglas George Blyth Leggate - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Terrific. My follow-up is really, I guess, this one's for Al. So I apologize in advance, Al. The balance between tax efficient, I guess, monetization, the way you've done in the last 6 months with the 2 deals that you did. For some reason, the market doesn't really seem to be rewarding you for that. And I'm just curious as to how you see your priority between trying to actually get value back into the stock for something like Mozambique, because I guess what we're kind of hearing on the charter is that this could be another kind of farm-down with no real material release of value. So if you could just walk us through how you're thinking about prioritizing your -- what is clearly an embarrassment of riches, but that doesn't seem to be getting through to the stock price.

R. A. Walker

Well, it's a very understandable question, and you're not a bad person for asking it, so I'm not put off by it. As it relates to Tronox, I think that has created an unfortunate cloud. A lot of misunderstandings about the case have unfortunately found their way into the share price. I think when you realize that we find ourselves in a situation where we're continuing to pursue what we think is the right answer for the shareholder in court, at the same time balancing that with what we think could be a reasonable settlement, if one could be achieved. There's not much more we can do to be a fiduciary for shareholder value than to pursue those sort of independently of each other, but be mindful that each are -- have their own ways in which they create value for letting the operating story come out. I think from a management perspective, we're pretty proud of our operating results for a long time and 2012 was just another chapter in a pretty good book. As you look at Mozambique, I think we look at it as probably one of the biggest success stories of our company's history. From again using the book analogy, we're pretty early into the reading of the book. And how we might extract value and a farm-down there is sort of in the category of to-be-determined. We don't have today a deal for me to be able to describe to you for you or others who in turn determine whether or not you think we've created value in the way we've structured it. So I think as we looked at the things that we have done in recent memory, I do think they add a lot of value. They bring forward the value in a tax efficient manner. And over time, I believe that will work its way into the share price. It's unfortunate we've had events recently such as Tronox and previously before that, Macondo, that have really not allowed the industry-leading operating story to get the full light of day. So I think from our perspective, Doug, we'll continue to look for ways to create that value through using structures that we think are tax efficient, what we do think unlocks value and gives the market a good indicator of the value of an asset or a play that we might be in. And we'll continue to hopefully find that resolution, one way or the other, so that the operating story is not clouded by things that don't have anything to do day-to-day with how we explore for and drill oil and gas wells.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Could I dip into Mozambique a little bit again? When you look at the area like Golfinho and Prosperidade, I mean, what do you see as the next step into us seeing which area could likely get some more momentum in terms of development for an LNG project? And what role does, I guess, Mozambique government play into help making that final decision?

R. A. Walker

Well, I'm going to let -- I'm going to ask Bob Daniels to address your question. I do think, to answer it in part myself, you do have a country and you do have a government here that's working really hard to try to create for their people the right situation. The opportunities for a better way of life and enrichment through better education for the population is going to be through things like the discovery of natural gas in the deepwater off Mozambique. So I think we have a committed government to try to do the right things to help industry create greater wealth. As it relates to the block, there's still a lot the block has, we believe, to offer. And why don't I turn that part of the question to Bob.

Robert P. Daniels

Yes. Scott, thank you. The question on Prosperidade versus Golfinho/Atum and which one has the most momentum, both of these have tremendous momentum. These are amazing discoveries. We've talked about both of them being on block, 10 to 30 Tcf recoverable, net to our partnership. So I mean, these are just amazing natural gas complexes, and both of them could be the first LNG developments we put in. Right now, Prosperidade is a little bit further ahead technically because we -- it was discovered first. We've done more work on it. But the Golfinho/Atum complex is catching up rapidly. We've got the first appraisal well down at Golfinho. We're on the second one. We've got 2 more planned after that. We're going to then start doing some DSTs up there. We're doing the exact same sort of thing that we did to the south of Prosperidade, which is to find the resource better so that we can get certified reserves and make the decision. I guess the thing to recognize is that the Golfinho/Atum complex is all on our block where as Prosperidade does spill off of our block onto the adjacent Eni operator block where they have appraised it. So we'll continue to work with Eni. We'll continue to work with the government and see how we can move both of these complexes forward. But beyond that, when you look at Mozambique Area 1, we've got some very exciting prospects to the south. We're-- we plan to start drilling late this year at Black Pearl and test some of the ideas that potentially could have some liquids associated with it based on the Ironclad well that we drilled several years ago down there. So we've got a lot more to do, but both of these have tremendous momentum and the LNG planning and development is moving ahead very rapidly.

Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Yes, it's kind of hard to imagine that I guess both areas would get into shallow LNG development. Correct me if I'm wrong there, but it just seems a little bit much all at once. And I guess from your perspective, when you take a look at when do you think the next the sort of meaningful event will happen in terms of getting us a better visibility on which area has that leg up. Is it -- ultimately, it seems like it's going to come from the government. Is that a fair statement?

Robert P. Daniels

Not necessarily from the government. I think that the appraisal work at Golfinho/Atum, when we're done with that, will give us a lot of information as to which ones have better development, and then also the status of the unitization, how that progresses. And that's something we don't control. We've got several parties involved in it. So we're going to have -- but we do want to continue with those discussions. So all of those are moving along in parallel, and we'll see how they all play out. But we think we've got 2 world-class accumulations here, and we're aggressively pursuing both of them at this time. We will have to make a call as to what will be the first ultimately.

R. A. Walker

Bob, I might add to that, if I could, and that is that we -- our plan is to get both complexes to the point of having certified reserves at the same time so that we are prepared in order to move forward with either of these in the first 2 trains. I think that's one of the mechanical things in front of us that we can control without being able to say we can, in fact, control the unitization negotiations and discussions.

Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And Bob, I think you said that the call is to be made at some point. When do you think that call has to be made, which one goes first?

Robert P. Daniels

I think I'll answer there with when we have the certified reserves and see where we are on the unitization, but we know we've got both of them capable of moving ahead.

Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Okay. I mean, do you expect that to be sometime by the end of this year, or is that going to bleed into '13?

Robert P. Daniels

I think with the Golfinho/Atum, it might spill a little bit into '13, but not very far into it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dave Kistler from Simmons & Company.

David W. Kistler - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Real quickly, looking at the free cash flow comments that you made earlier and kind of the substantial war chest you're building up with free cash flow versus your CapEx spending going forward, how do we think about the potential for acquisitions and specifically maybe looking at the area of mutual interest in the Permian? And are you looking at any packages there?

R. A. Walker

Well, Dave, let me take a quick moment to address that and I'll then let Bob Gwin do it as well. I think today, we're not really an aggressive acquirer of assets simply because the portfolio we've got is really one we're pretty darn happy with. And our ability to add value through the drill bit through the exploration activities with Bob Daniels is probably our best value added for the dollar invested. It might be more likely that we might want to see ourselves taking greater working interest in some wells or drilling a few more wells and spending capital that way than we would necessarily through acquisitions. It doesn't mean that acquisitions at some point might not be of interest to us, particularly at the right price. But that might be a better question for Bob Gwin to address than me. But I think today the exploration model that we have is probably, for us, the best value added for the composition of the portfolio we've got.

Robert G. Gwin

And the only thing I'd add to it is that of course there's lots of properties out there and we look at lots of them. We look at numerous opportunities around the world both in terms of in our exploration area as well as in places to see if an acquisition could dislodge something in our existing portfolio and help our future results. But as Al pointed out, we are very pleased with the portfolio. We're very pleased with the forward model. And so as you would expect, it becomes pretty difficult to find ourselves in a competitive bidding situation where the economics makes sense for us to pursue it. But we keep looking at it obviously because the free cash flow gives us some flexibility, gives us some optionality. Bob Daniels' success and his team's success with the drillbit gives us a lot of optionality. And so we are constantly trying to figure out how we use that optionality available to us to drive better results in a more capital-efficient basis.

R. A. Walker

Yes, Dave, last time we probably made any sort of acquisition of size was in the Eagleford with the TXCO situation where they were in bankruptcy and they were a distressed seller. So it's probably in a scenario of more like that, that you may see us be a little more aggressive than we would be otherwise. I think in that particular case we bought TXCO for around $1,000 an acre. And depending upon how you value the promote associated with KNOC, we did it somewhere between $15,000 and $19,000 an acre. So if we see those sort of economics work again in our favor, Dave, I think you might consider letting us load the gun.

David W. Kistler - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Okay, I appreciate that color. And then switching over to the Marcellus just for a moment. You had the rig count down. Your production was up. You kind of telegraphed that that might be something that would happen last quarter. Can you talk a little bit more about how we think about that going forward and whether that was driven more by a series of drilled uncompleted wells being completed or by the efficiency gains you kind of outlined in your ops report last night?

Charles A. Meloy

This is Chuck. It's a bit of both. Particularly on the non-op production side, we've seen a lot of growth over there, and it feels now making 1.2 Bcf a day, which is just a phenomenal start. And you'll recall that up until just recently, we've had a carried position in the Marcellus. So we built that at a very low cost to Anadarko and have a tremendous asset there that has a lot of life lift into it. We've also got a lot of efficiency. You've seen our drill times come down, our completion costs come down. We outlined that in the ops report, if you want to go through that. And you can just refer to the ops report. I think it does a pretty good job of telling you how we're working that. So going forward, we'll continue to keep a fairly low rig activity level on the operated side. And I think our non-operated position will do the same thing. There are several hundred wells that are waiting on either completions or hookups. So you could continue to see a pretty strong production performance out of that area. And the economics, despite the gas price, are fairly strong given the low cost position and the efficiencies we've got out of drilling in completion group.

David W. Kistler - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Great. Appreciate that color. One just last follow-up to that, looking at those efficiency gains and the reduction in cost on the completion side, how do we think about what inning you guys are in from the perspective of that continuing? Obviously, kind of 15% reduction quarter-over-quarter is pretty impressive number on the spud-to-rig release time. Do we keep kind of pushing that trajectory for several more quarters? Just any kind of guidance you can give us on that would be helpful.

Robert P. Daniels

I don't think I'd want to pop out a percentage, but I will tell you that our drilling completion guys, just they're top rate. They wake up every morning trying to push additional efficiencies into our program and deliver value to Anadarko. And I've been amazed at the just year-over-year, I guess, for the last 5 or 6 years, we've seen continuous improvement. And I'd bet on those guys every day.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lively from Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Just a follow-up question on the Marcellus. What's your current backlog? And then what's the plans for actually taking down that backlog over the next few quarters?

Charles A. Meloy

Brian, this is Chuck. The backlog is around 200 wells, and it's just getting clipped off on a steady pace. We've -- both us and our non-operated partners have reduced the completion count or the completion crew count. And what we're seeing is just a general slowing of the process up there that's helping us manage our cost, get more efficiency out of the dollars we spend up there. And depending upon gas price and how those crews are operating, you could see 20 or 30 of those wells a quarter being put online. And even more if prices were to rebound, I think you'd see us accelerate that, and you can see the growth come again.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Right. And I'm just thinking, if you look at where the current spot gas price is relative to the forward curve for next year, there's not a huge amount at Contango [ph] at this point. And so I'm just wondering if you guys would start stepping into a higher completion of that backlog.

Charles A. Meloy

Well, that's an option for us. Right now, we're down to a crude count that we're comfortable with, and I think our non-operated -- our operator advisors are feeling the same way. So you're just seeing -- you're sort of seeing a steady-state pace right now. I don't really see that changing unless gas prices improve considerably.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay. And then shifting over to Jubilee, on the down production quarter-over-quarter, how much of that was related to rig remediation versus just under lifting?

Charles A. Meloy

Well, the production -- what you're seeing on a quarter-to-quarter numbers is just how the ships come in and out and the way the liftings work. The production from Jubilee is actually starting to pick up. We were down to around 60,000 barrels a day and now we're producing over 75,000 barrels a day. And so you are starting to see the impact of the acid jobs and the sidetracks that we did earlier this year. We're feeling fairly encouraged about how the field is performing and the -- when you're out in a field like that and you're in a subsea environment, to work in a well, you often times have to shut in all the wells around you. So that's why you didn't see the build quite as fast as maybe you would've hoped, but the acid jobs are working well. And I feel like that you'll continue to see that performance. And we've also started our Phase 1A wells, and those -- the early returns on those look really good as well. And if we apply the lessons we've learned on the completions in Phase 1, into the Phase 1A group, which I'm sure we will, I think you'll see some really good performance out of the field coming forward.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay. And then so the -- if it was just the timing, I guess, on the second quarter, do you expect to have sort of an overlift in the third quarter at Jubilee?

Charles A. Meloy

It goes up and down, I'm sorry I don't have the exact figures on the third quarter. But the production is steady, and it's -- the way the liftings work, there's a sequence of liftings, and it's just timing.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Malone with Global Hunter Securities.

John Malone - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

In the op side, can you talk about the horizontal, one being about 75% Niobrara production, you got 25% Codell. Is that the plan going forward, or do you think you'll do more Codell completions, more Codell production?

Charles A. Meloy

Right now, the fields are doing so well. Both the Niobrara and the Codell are performing extremely well. You've seen us increase our resource potential out there to 1 billion to 1.5 billion barrels. The mix is associated more with the way the existing vertical completions are put together. And so that's probably a reasonable mix going forward, but it will change from time to time, depending upon which section we're in. But I would say that's in the game of what the mix is going to be.

John Malone - Global Hunter Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. So just moving over to the Utica, you mentioned it's 4 wells flowing, and you referred to a completion evaluation in early 2013. Is that when we can most likely [ph] expect an update? Or would you be saying something about what you're seeing there prior to that?

Charles A. Meloy

We'll be updating it as we get deeper into 2013. Essentially, we're in our -- we're still in our early phases of exploration. The -- we have 3 wells on steady production. We're completing 3 wells, and we're drilling 1 right now. So we'll have a total of 7. There's a lot of activity around this. So we'll give a lot of information with regard to our land position and have a more fulsome discussion in 2013.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eliot Javanmardi from Capital One.

Eliot Javanmardi - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

A question on Phobos. I was just curious as to what color you could provide or what response you would provide to investors who may feel that per the operations report release, you could be giving up a good bit of potential upside in the prospect in exchange for what on the surface looks to be maybe $80 million or so. Could you provide any color on going forward with Phobos and you guys' thoughts on the form out there?

Robert P. Daniels

Eliot, Bob Daniels. We manage our risk. And even though it's a very good prospect, with its dual objectives and proximity to Lucius and everything, it's a good prospect, it still is not without risk. And it's also going to be a fairly expensive well because of lower tertiary tail that we have on it to test down there. So we feel like the right thing to do at this point was to share that risk a little bit, and so we laid off a piece of it. We're essentially going to be fully carried on the well, and that'll spud later this year. It's very typical of how we do our business both in the Gulf of Mexico and around the world. So it's just managing our risk and recognizing that while it's a very attractive prospect, we've got lots of very attractive prospects in our portfolio.

Eliot Javanmardi - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

Yes, absolutely. And just a quick follow-up to that then would be just so I get some clarification, the 20%, does that apply to the whole potential development that was farmed out? Or is it the block or the well? Just it is the old development, 20% was farmed out?

Robert P. Daniels

That's right. That will be the whole prospect.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Magner from Macquarie.

Joseph Patrick Magner - Macquarie Research

Yes, most of my questions were answered. I guess, one thing. Could you give us an update on the timing or any anticipated activity on the new ventures front in the deepwater? New Zealand, Kenya and South Africa come to mind.

Robert P. Daniels

Yes, Joe, it's Bob. On Kenya, we'll probably get to drilling over there first quarter of 2013. Originally thought this year. But because of the Golfinho/Atum activity, we pretty much used up our rig time all in Mozambique, so it will happen early 2013. South Africa, we're in the process of just waiting on the final paper signed by the government. Meanwhile, we're working with Petroci, our partner on the 2D seismic acquisition program that could start later this year. New Zealand -- do you want me to just kind of walk around the world?

Joseph Patrick Magner - Macquarie Research

Sure, if that's all right.

Robert P. Daniels

New Zealand, we just signed a rig which will -- new build coming out of the Asian shipyards late 2013 to spud the wells over there. So we do have that tied up at this point. I mentioned China later this year. Beyond that, normal activity. West Africa, moving down into southern portion of the Mozambique block and continue to look for new opportunities.

Joseph Patrick Magner - Macquarie Research

Okay. Great. And then just one other thing, you mentioned -- Al mentioned it in his comments that the plan of development will be submitted on the TEN complex. Any comments on or thoughts on the size or sort of resource potential or production impact from that development at this point?

Charles A. Meloy

George, just following along with the operator's estimates, we have 18% of that block. And we're deeply involved in the development process of getting the POD put together. And we're in alignment with how they've assessed the resources that we developed in this source space.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C., Research Division

Going back to the Wattenberg, my -- if my recollection is right, you're on track to spend about $1 billion there this year. So that's a big chunk of your CapEx. But the -- I wanted to get more kind of color on what you've seen on the Codell rates and also maybe a little more color on that Barclay section where you had the 10 wells on the 640 [ph].

Charles A. Meloy

Okay, Charles, this is Chuck again. The way the Wattenberg's gone, we have 8 rigs now. The field is growing very, very quickly. We've pushed rates from the horizontal program up to 28,000 barrels a day. And that's coming from about 75% of the wells in Niobrara and 25% is Codell. We've -- the 2 have very similar characteristics with regard to production profile on a BOE basis. One is a little more liquids-rich, that's why we're drilling more Niobrara wells than Codell wells. But as we go into these areas and we want to develop, say, a section, we're doing our best to complete the development in the section, just sort of mow the grass as where we're going. Just walk across the section and complete it so we don't have to come back in and disrupt production from either -- for me, the other wells. And so that's our process and that's why we're doing it the way we're doing it. The Barclay section that you referred to is an area where we've gone in and almost completely developed the section on a test spacing in both zones. And it's -- we've put those wells online. It'll take us a number of months. We're just too early in the process to know how well they've done and what the total estimated ultimate recovery are between the 2 zones. But that's one of our experiments. And the early returns on that, as you saw in the operating report, look very good. And I think this is the way we're going to approach the field going forward, which is just rig up on a section with the number of rigs that we need to prosecute the program, drill both the Niobrara and the Codell at the same time, move in with a completion fleet and complete those 10 -- however many wells, 8 to 10 to 12 wells per section, and then move out and go on to the next one.

Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C., Research Division

Got it. And are those -- is the pattern for this Codell with the Niobrara, is it kind of a sawtooth pattern, or are you doing kind of 7 Niobrara on one end and then 3 Codell on the other?

Charles A. Meloy

It's more of a sawtooth where you have a Codell under 2 or 3 Niobrara wells.

Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C., Research Division

Got it. And then back to Mozambique, I'd like to take one more run at that question. So obviously, the Prosperidade complex is further ahead technically, but you've -- you're accelerating the appraisal on the Golfinho/Atum. To me, the one big thing, and this is what everyone's alluded to, the one-piece complex that you have on the Prosperidade is the unitization discussion, negotiations is I think what you guys said. What -- is there a time line for that when it's going to start? And do you have an expectation or how long that's going to take? Because I guess, at least in my way of thinking, that's kind of -- it's really that -- how difficult and how long that discussion, that unitization discussion is, is going to be a large determinant of what everyone's after, which is which prospect -- or which complex is going to get discovered of developed first.

R. A. Walker

Charles, this is Al. Let me be sure I understand your question. Are you asking have we started discussions around unitization?

Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C., Research Division

Yes. I mean, just start of those discussions and how long do you think they're going to last, or how long will it be before you get a decision on it?

R. A. Walker

Well, we have started discussions. We've had numerous discussions. It's hard for us to give you an estimate of when we might reach agreement on unitization because that would be associated with reaching the milestone I mentioned earlier with having the reserves certified. I think both the government and the partners are going to need to be able to demonstrate they've got certified reserves behind any particular train. So we answered that question earlier saying it would probably late this year, early next before both of the 2 complexes, the Golfinho/Atum complex or the Prosperidade field itself, would actually have certified reserves. It's probably on the backside of having certified reserves from our perspective in both Golfinho/Atum and Prosperidade and seeing what is in the other block that Eni's the operator for on the certified reserves before you should likely expect there to be some conclusion reached by the government on how that field would be unitized.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of John Herrlin in from Societe Generale.

John P. Herrlin - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Some quick ones for me. With Heidelberg and Vito, would you consider doing a Lucius-like development carry?

Robert G. Gwin

John, this is Bob Gwin. I think the short answer to that is yes. But obviously, as we move forward and the economics take more shape and we look at how it fits into the broader portfolio, we'll make that decision in the future. But the deal we did at Lucius is very, very attractive. Obviously, it enhances our economics very, very significantly. And so replicating that type of a structure certainly is on the short list of things we'd consider.

R. A. Walker

John, the one thing I would add to that is that at Heidelberg, we have working -- a little more working interest there to be able to promote down and still have a meaningful working interest. So unless we were able to do a player trade at Vito, I think our focus would probably be at Heidelberg.

John P. Herrlin - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Okay, that's fine now. Are you finding that you're getting unsolicited offers from domestic players or global or both?

Robert G. Gwin

John, it's both. These -- coming across resources like this of this kind of scale is a relatively difficult thing to do. And our team has done it well, and there are several folks out there that are attracted to relatively shorter term oil coming online and willing to pay a marginal premium in order to buy it from us given the -- given our willingness to work out an attractive economic deal.

R. A. Walker

And John, let me add to that. I think it's probably fair to say that nondomestic companies today have a very bullish view of oil. And it's probably because of that, that they're a better promotee here than maybe a domestic company. Because it seems like as we talk to people, there's a very strong view about future prices that they don't want to be on the other side of it. And so it seems like that's why a lot of our activities of them with more non-U.S. companies when we promote.

John P. Herrlin - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Great. With Mozambique, your test results were very strong. Would you be considering changing kind of your design capacity in terms of LNG? Or is it still way too early days?

Charles A. Meloy

John, this is Chuck. Yes, those results were exceptional. In fact, you saw where we flowed 100 million a day from several of our DSTs and very low drawdowns. So the well design itself will certainly make for larger bore completions, so we get more rate out of every well. And we're approaching our feed for both Golfinho and Prosperidade complexes with looking at what the optimum economics that we could generate based upon the combination of wellbores and output from the LNG train. So all that's in the mix right now, and we're evaluating that. Our early work has said that a 5 million ton-type plant is about where we ought to be, but we're still open to evaluations on others.

John P. Herrlin - Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Okay. Last one for me is on Wattenberg. You're getting better results, what about processing capacity? Are you going to have to ramp that up? Or you're just trying to be more oily, shall we say, so you're not having to deal with any sort of capacity issues until you do upgrade in Wattenberg?

Charles A. Meloy

Yes, John, I'm sure you got it, but we're doing a lot of expansion out there. We are actually installing a 300-million-a-day processing plant called the Lancaster plant. And then we're actually participating in 2 significant pipeline projects down in Mont Belvieu. The Front Range Express and the Texas Express, which will allow us the evacuation of those NGLs from Wattenberg, which you know, it's very rich gas as we get a lot of good, heavy NGLs, and we'll be pushing those down to Mont Belvieu into some premium markets. And so all that's underway right now. The plan and the pipelines will be in service late next year, early 2014. And we're really excited about the economics at land in our Wattenberg program.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Subash Chandra from Jefferies.

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

The first question is on the Marcellus. What is the non-op rig count currently?

R. A. Walker

Subash, did you ask us what was the non-op rig count in the Marcellus?

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Correct.

Charles A. Meloy

It's around 7, 7 or 8 right now. It varies just day-to-day, but it's right in that range.

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay. So down from 11?

Charles A. Meloy

It was probably at a peak of 13 or 14 at one time, Subash.

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay. Second and probably the -- a ton of these questions being asked, but if you can maybe characterize a bit more for the guidance, whether versus growing pains, is there a way to do that without providing numbers?

Charles A. Meloy

Not in real good detail. I don't guess the -- I think you guys' concern about the guidance is overblown frankly. We're having exceptional performance from all our reservoirs. And it's just the -- it's a combination of effects that we're taking into account, what we are seeing and having predictions on a heavy hurricane season. And we take that into account, so we give you a risk-weighted guidance. And I'm sorry, we've said this 3 or 4 times, but that's what we do. And the other things are just the types of things that happen when you're growing, and that's shut-ins to make tie-ins. The expansion projects that we have for oil exports at Wattenberg and the Maverick and the growth we're seeing in the Permian, all that has consequential impacts on a quarterly basis. But the reality is those things are growing and they're growing explosively. I mean, it's big time growth with exceptional economics in all those plays. And so that's what's going on, and we're getting the benefit of the Algerian TP resolution to boot. So you'll see our oil volumes spike up considerably as we move forward. It's unfortunate, I guess, based upon the timing that all this kind of collides in the third quarter, which is when we have a lot of weather downtime historically, and we're just taking that into account.

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay, fair enough. And a final question, I guess. In Mozambique and your LNG project, how do you look at your ability to operate LNG business and possibly build that out as a long-term portfolio in terms of, say, human resource and capital requirements and time value?

Charles A. Meloy

Well, I think you need to break it down in a couple of components. Let's just talk offshore first. What you're going to see offshore Mozambique is a cluster of wells, probably 10 to 15 wells per train, to start out with. It's very similar to the development that we had in IHUB. IHUB was about 1 Bcf a day production. It'll take around 750 million to 800 million per train to produce into these facilities. So we've done that. I think we've done it well, and we're very familiar with the kit and the water depth and we have the right equipment to take that to conclusion. I also think that our project management team that we put together on this project and has historically been working on our Gulf projects is just top-notch, and they've delivered projects of this offshore similar to this on time and on budget for a decade now. And you all seen all the IPA comparisons of that. So I feel really strongly that we've got this offshore linked. When you move onshore and you think about this LNG project, to put in perspective, my sense is that a train is about the equivalent of doing an El Merk and 1/2, something along those. That's the kind of intensity, the capital, the manpower, the hardware that's involved in that. And so we're in the middle of El Merk now, we're 93% complete. And we're coming in -- we'll have first production year-in. So I think we have the basic skill set that we need to complete this project, put it together. We're fortunate in that -- with the folks on El Merk, the folks that have worked on Ghana, the folks that worked on Caesar/Tonga within our company are available to us to put on Mozambique right now. And so we're moving that down in that direction. They're very experienced. They've done an exceptional job with those projects. And I feel comfortable that we'll pick good feed. We got a good feed contractor list. And as we go further and further and deeper and deeper into this project, we'll continue to hone that list. And the combination of world-class contractors and our project management team, along with the partner participation that we'll have, we'll deliver you a great project.

Subash Chandra - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Okay. And I'm sorry, one last one. In Algeria, the staggering, the barrels out for the balance of the year, how do you see that happening?

R. A. Walker

Yes, on that one, really, Subash, you're just going to have to follow our guidance because we contract every 2 months for our forward sales out there. So it just falls in based upon the tranching in of the different owners.

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from Crédit Suisse.

Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

Just a had quick one regarding the Wattenberg, as you shift towards 10 horizontal wells, I just wondered if you could elaborate on what the mix will be or what that means for the vertical program.

Charles A. Meloy

Well, what we're essentially doing is taking new horizontal rigs, putting them to work in Wattenberg and diminishing our vertical program by about the equivalent amount. So by the end of the year, we may have one vertical rig working, but it's going to be late this year or early next year, that the vertical program will essentially go away, and then we'll be drilling strictly 100% horizontal wells with maybe a few exceptions here and there.

Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

And then as we think about 2013, you, at the analyst meeting, you talked about perhaps drilling up to 270 wells on the horizontal program next year. Does that -- does your thought process change given how you're accelerating up to 10 a little bit faster than we were anticipating?

Charles A. Meloy

Well, yes. The actual rig count, I can't comment on yet because -- I'm sorry the actual well count, we're still working through that. But I think the combination of moving to 10 rigs and the efficiency we're seeing in the program of getting these things knocked out quicker will lead to a higher actual well count drill next year.

R. A. Walker

Well, I believe, with that, we have answered all the questions. We appreciate everyone's time and attention this morning, and we look forward to being with you again in late October. Have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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