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You need junior miners exposure in your portfolio. Period.

Check out this link to an interesting interview with the head honcho of Kinross (KGC) published last week. He says that there are a lot of bargains in the junior/exploration miner sector, and he reasons this is because of the credit crunch that has dried up funding for these companies.

Well yeah...big DUH all round and obviously obvious to anyone that follows the industry. But to see the CEO of a big gold miner say it out loud should be a clear signal to you. It is to me.

Take a look at this chart...

click to enlarge

...which shows the Canadian Venture exchange (packed to the gills with juniors) in ratio to gold. Even though there's a slight recovery already started the ratio is still way out of kilter, and there is plenty of room for the better quality junior miners to float back up on this evidence alone.

Add to the mix the persistently high metals prices (I’m calling copper to fluctuate between $3.50 and $4, so last week’s move was nothing to fear). Add to the mix precious metals producers who will be looking to replace in situ assets of gold etc as their present mines deplete. Add to the mix the likelihood of credit becoming a little easier to obtain soon enough.

So stocks to consider: I'm looking at good quality, large juniors or companies that have recently started production, because these are the ones most likely to get bought out first. Here are two lists, one for precious metals and one for base metals. The lists are by no means definitive, but will hopefully give you a starting point for further DD. All of them are LatAm exposed companies, by the way. I know there are opportunities in other regions, but I'm a LatAm dude and stick to what I know.

Precious Metals Ideas
Jaguar Mining (JAG)
Minera Andes (MNEAF.OB)
Aurelian (AUREF.PK)
Fortuna Silver (FVITF.PK)
Mansfield Minerals (MFMNF.PK)
Mag Silver (MVG)

Base Metals Ideas
Inca Pacific (IPRFF.PK)
Candente Resources (CDOUF.PK)
Baja Mining (BAJFF.PK)
Capstone Mining (CSFFF.PK)

So there's some food for thought. If you have your own favourite junior, tell me about it. I'm not trying to lay down the law and say these are the only good ones out there.

Disclosure: long Inca Pacific, Fortuna Silver, Baja Mining and Candente.

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This article has 19 comments:

  •  
    Aurelian: Fantastic ore find! (Fruita del Norte) BUT, Ecuadorian Govt has clamped a standstill order on miners, stocks have nosedived, future ambiguous. This is one virtually for the foolhardy, aka: gamblers.
    2008 May 11 05:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Currently own three Canadian miner plays - the junior play is Geovic - a cameroon cobalt play and fantastic story. Also, own Sherrit International that is more mid-cap territory but have huge exposure to Cuba that is really going to see huge development in the next couple of years. Finally, I own Endeavour Financial - the ultimate junior mining play. Sells under book value and provides seed funding to junior miners and expertise in venture capital - it brought has good Baja exposure and other junior canadian miners - conservative but great growth potential.
    2008 May 11 06:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    rock plugs mining!!
    2008 May 11 07:36 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why buy juniors when stocks like Hudbay Minerals (HBMFF HBM.TO) trade at $18. with $6. cash and great earnings. They are also doing lots of exploring.
    2008 May 12 06:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I would throw money @ Peter Tagliamonte a proven miner working on many fronts ie: Central Sun Mining, Avion, and "his guys" the Bharti boy's over at Aberdeen add to a robust outlook...
    2008 May 12 08:28 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    thanks
    2008 May 12 09:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think Dynasty Metals and Mining (T.DMM) is a much better play than Aurelian. DMM is ready to go into production at Zaruma and their Jerusalem mine is only 12 months away from also going into production. Aurelian, while a great find, is still years away from a producing mine. With all the political risk invloved in Ecuador now, I would rather be in a Jr. that is ready to go into production once the new mining laws are put into place (Dynasty) as opposed to being years away as (Aurelian).
    2008 May 12 09:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Great Panther junior silver producer. Sangold for a junior gold producer.
    2008 May 12 11:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good advise. I am long STP.V PWE.TO
    2008 May 12 11:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why buy juniors? Fantastic leverage for companies with good resources. I hold Pelangio, Kalimantan Gold, Bravo Gold, U.S. Gold, Northern Dynasty (very undervalued with a lot of big money holders), Silver Standard, Premier Gold, Coral Gold, Houston Lake Mining, Bravo Gold, Impact Silver--and more--all these have had great drill results. Sooner or later the shorts will have to cover.
    2008 May 12 01:11 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    King's Bay (great drill results--they own their own drills) and Colombia Goldfields (about 2.6 million ounces of gold, 14 million ounces of silver)
    2008 May 12 01:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    six17:

    I would not invest 1 cent in any miner where Peter Tagliamonte in involved. Peter destroyed all shareholder value in Glencairn, predecessor to Central Sun Mining. It was Peter's horrible bad management that wiped out Glencairn. Peter is a walking disaster. Maybe, he is not dumb. Maybe, it was deliberate and profitable for him. But the shareholders lost big time. New investors in Central Sun got all the value when they changed the nane. Peter specializes in "pump and dump" mining companies.
    2008 May 12 01:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    chancer.....
    how do you turn 2 million into 1? combine wheaton river and black hawk mining into glencairn! go look up "Building in the rain" and Kerry Knoll ... you will find that Peter Taglimonte in order to save the shareholders from total fiscal ruin he fired the guy who hired him,sold off some assets,brought in some equity money,and hired Dr. Bill Pearson. Costa Rica Bellavista will never be the "best heap leacher", in Canada as Mr. Knoll was once.I invite all to go take a look of the newest director Joe Milbourne smile he left AMEC after many years when he was in charge of the drill results from La Libertad now Orosi which is being rebuilt with a sag mill and new drill results show bonaza grade of a large number of the drill holes opening early 2009 with over 100k oz at about 400$....yes the new investors and the smart old ones are up 100% after the RV which is rare in the street....Pump and dump ever read the NorthenMiner Kerry Knoll old rag? You might recall the DEZ buyout from auy who owns 19% of CSM also in which Peter Tagliamonte was in charge nice little 10x mutiple for all the shareholders who believed I did and I still do...
    2008 May 12 02:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    six:

    Your rants make no coherent sense.

    I stand by my post and warning: Stay away from any miner that Peter Tagliamonte is involved in.

    If you and others want to throw your money away backing Peter T, you have certainly been warned, and you can choose to lose.

    You came here (as I believe I have seen you before) to pump Peter T's miners.

    There are many other choices. Why gamble with Peter T.?

    2008 May 13 11:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cgld.ob is a jr. gold producer I've been following for a couple years now that seems to have a very bright future.
    2008 May 13 03:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    HOW ABOUT CALEDONIA MINING ITS HAS A COBOLT MINE IN ZAMBIA THAT IS ABOUT TO START DIGGING WITH OFF TAKE AGREEMENTS OF ALMOST A BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR AND SHOULD START PRODUCING IN 2ND HALF OF 09 AND STILL TRADES AT $ .18 COULD HAVE HUGE UP SIDE
    2008 May 26 03:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm long CAL, all their future production until 2013 has already been sold, excellent conditions ( $12 minimum, unhedged upside ( to my best knowledge).)

    Cobalt will be in HUGE demand the coming years: even GM & Ford have seen the light recently and will build hybrid cars in the very near future. NiMH tech will in time be replaced by Li-ion ( Honda is building a factory that will be operational in 2010) Despite the name, Lithium-ion batteries contain 4 times more cobalt than lithium. Prices can rise even further than they already have, but with the current prices CAL profits will be HUGE. Stock price range somewhere between $3,- and $10,- is perfectly possible IMO.

    S&J.
    2008 Jun 03 06:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Can anyone recommend an ETF or CEF with exposure to junior miners??
    2008 Jul 02 12:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Check out CGR, Claude Resources, or CRJ on the Toronto Exchange - they mine 50,000 ounces annually at their Seabee mine in Canada so financing not such an issue with them, and they have two rigs working at their Madsen mine in the prolific Red Lake Mining Camp of Ontario. The infrastructure at Madsen is in place, the mine is permitted to dump tailings, and drill results compare with GG's and RBY's, their holdings are adjacent.
    Jul 08 07:40 AM | Link | Reply