Economist Recession Odds Tick Lower

Bloomberg's monthly survey of economists was released on Friday, and the collective odds for a recession over the next 12 months dropped to 55% from 70% in April. Below we provide a chart of recession odds from the monthly Bloomberg economist survey versus the Intrade contract for a recession in 2008 going back to the start of the year.

The Intrade contract most recently traded at 27.3, which is down from a reading of 72.9 last month. It's noteworthy that the recession has to occur in 2008 for the Intrade contract, while it's over the next 12 months for the economist survey. But it still highlights that economists and traders have both become more skeptical of an actual recession, with traders more so than economists.

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Comments

[adan]

these odds these economists give ebb and flow more than the wind shifts from the gulf and hill country here in central texas