My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions 42 comments
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I keep a regularly updated watch list of 30 or so alternative
energy stocks. The top half of my list receives the majority of my
research hours. Among them I organize a top 5 which are the stocks I
would currently consider buying if certain conditions are met, usually
technical. Over the past 12 months this research has been mostly
fruitless as I have held mainly only First Solar (FSLR). However, I am now looking for the "next FSLR."
First Solar: I have owned this stock since Feb 2007. I have continued to buy since then and have often had a "portfolio" which consisted of 100% FSLR heavily margined. However, after a disappointing quarter when cost/watt was flat and no new manufacturing was announced, I have decided to hedge my bet with Applied Materials (AMAT). Until AMAT introduced their Sunfab line, FSLR had no major competition. Still, FSLR's capex/watt is half that of AMAT. The vast majority of my investments remain in FSLR, at least for now.
Applied Materials: The only company currently
with a realistic roadmap for competing with First Solar on price, both
in capex/watt and manufacturing cost/watt. They have the ability to leverage
their expertise, and billions in capital in order to provide turnkey
solutions for PV manufacturers. Their attempt to commoditize the
business could revolutionize the industry, much to the detriment of
other current PV players.
They are leveraging their gen 8.5 LCD fab expertise in order to create panels about 4 times the size of the largest currently available panels. Their Sunfab line utilizes readily available amorphous silicon instead of more exotic rare metals such as tellurium in cdte or indium in CIGS. The key to Sunfab will be their ability to rollout the double junction lines which will increase efficiency from a miserable 6% to a respectable 9%. With nearly $2 billion in annual income and a 1% dividend, this is the most conservative investment on the list. It's also trading at the low end of its historical valuation. That makes it the only stock on my list value investors would even consider.
Ormat Technologies (ORA) : A geothermal play. At 3-8 cents/kwh geothermal, this is already a proven
technology and competitive with coal. There are still plenty of
unexploited geothermal resources available on the west coast alone,
where Ormat is headquartered. My problem with this company is that
they are also in the electricity generation business. This bogs down
earnings growth but also makes for much more stable and conservative
growth. The recent stock offering is a good sign, showing growth
prospects. This one will be even better when the stock sells off on the
news.
Maxwell Technologies (MXWL): The most speculative play
among my top 5. Currently the largest ultracapacitor play.
Ultracapacitors have the potential to displace batteries completely
since they can be made cheaper, lighter, and more durable than
lithium-ion or NIMH batteries. Battery technology is the main
limitation of electric vehicles today. Normally I would not include a
small cap in my top 5. However, due to my certainty than electric
vehichles will become the norm sooner than the market expects, and the
fact that there are few current options for investing in an EV company,
Maxwell makes the list.
Cree Inc. (CREE): One of a
few large LED manufacturers in the world. Compact Fluorescent and LED
lighting are the most cost-effective ways to conserve energy today.
Incandescent lightbulbs are scheduled to be phased out completely.
Many people don't realize than CFs have their problemstoo, namely a
hazardous amount of mercury if the bulb is broken. Though LEDs
consume about 10% of electricity as incandescents and 30% of that of
CFs. LEDs are currently quite expensive, at about $70 for a
100 watt equivalent. Also these 100-watt-equivalent bulbs are made up
of multiple LEDs, as single LEDs have been unable to economically
provide adequate lumens.
This $70 "investment" will pay for itself in energy savings many times over, not to mention all the hassle saved from changing bulbs, as LEDs can last a lifetime. However, most people will suffer "sticker shock" at the high upfront cost. When the price is reduced about 50%, it will hit the consumer's sweet spot and begin to achieve mass market appeal. A risky strategy of integration and alienating former OEM manufacturers may explain recent underperformance.
Honorable mentions:
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) - Rumors of the demise in the profitability of polysilicon may be greatly exaggerated. The majority of the Chinese polysilicon plants scheduled to come on line in 2008 are ungoing delays and production problems. Polysilicon shortages may continue well into 2010, especially if major new solar subsidies are introduced perhaps by the US or China.
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) - One of the oldest alternative energy plays. Founder invented the NIMH battery. NIMH is a proven alternative to lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Lithium currently has a 20% annual degradation in capacity regardless of use. Also has a promising thin film amorphous silicon PV business in Unisolar. Has long been mismanaged but a great quarter moves it into the watch list.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) - Another amorphous silicon manufacturer which turned a profit for the first time last quarter, albeit only 1 cent/share.
SunPower (SPWR) - Offers the highest efficiency PV product. Also considered aesthetically superior for built in PV (BIPV) applications. Expect to pay a premium of about 10%/watt for SPWR product. In the long run when polysilicon prices eventually come down, SPWR could be the biggest beneficiary as price becomes less of an issue and maximizing power generation per square foot becomes more of one. Also has a tremendous amount of exposure to the US market.
Ascent Solar (ASTI) - The largest publicly traded CIGS thin film PV manufacturer. A viable technology sometimes deemed "3rd generation" PV. Numerous startups in this field with moderate funding make it hard to determine who the leader in this field with be.
Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) - A highly speculative stock with tenfold appreciation potential. Likely to trade flat for years to come until successful commercialization is proven. Has developed a battery for electric vehicles which charges in 10 minutes but is significantly more expensive.
Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT) - The least proven of all the stocks on the list. Develops buoys for ocean wave power generation. Currently trading below the value of their cash assets. Like ALTI, needs to prove commercial success.
Akeena Solar (AKNS) - This name is of interest because it's the largest pure play among solar installers in the US market. Far from my favorite investment vehicle, it acts as my barometer for the health of the solar industry since they carry products from Suntech (STP), Sunpower, and Kyocera (KYO).
Emcore (EMKR) - Another next-generation PV company. Along with Boeing's Spectrolab, Emcore makes the world's highest efficency solar cells. The concentrated PV market, which uses mirrors to reflect sunlight onto efficient and relatively small areas of PV cells, gives this company enormous potential.
5N Plus [VNP.TSX] - First Solar's main tellurium supplier traded on the Toronto exchange. Relatively large market cap for a TSX stock. Has tenfold appreciation potential due to the upward pressure on tellurium prices. Can be viewed as a safer way to benefit from FSLR's growth.
Disclosure: I am long FSLR and AMAT
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This article has 42 comments:
I have several write-ups.
I have a comment on Macau. Email me crcjunior@yahoo.com
That the turbine's cant be produced fast enough is because demand is so damn high, sure it takes some time to builmd them, but the wind turbine company's are expanding fast, and even at their rate Vestas is expecting the shortage to stay for a few years. All the more profit for them though. Vestas shot up 15% on last earnings, a week ago. Maybe you should consider Gamesa's earnings on thursday 15th of may.
I know some pretty hefty wind farms in development in Europe going over the 1 gigawatt total output, and even if it takes some space, there is always room in the sea. In the meantime takeovers in this sector are coman, Just recently European utility company SUEZ took over the largest wind farm in America, and Vestas is expanding in USA with a new factory.
Anyway, Andrew wanted to talk solar. Then again clearly he doesn't like any of the European Solar company's neither. this aint new on Seekingalpha, but Europe is well ahead in this sector and you would think that would be important in the grand sheme of things. Most of my solar investments are in renewable energy corp and Q-cells anyway. hey get MY honourable mention atleast.
As to the stocks listed. i have a small position left in ASTI, for reasons of their product, though i cant be all to happy about the stock dillution, lets hope they get really forward with that capital. I hav a large investment though in the bottom listed stock, 5N plus or VNP.TO, the "safe way" to play FSLR, but a company that has many strong advantage's in other fields to. Otherwise i stay somewhat out of the USA, don't like the dollar to much yet. I am following some wind farmers and own a position in NCEN.OB. A few more small positions in USA, but thats for an other topic.
Not sure what you mean about large land requirements, just visited a large windfarm in northern NY located on agricultural land, the tower footprint is miniscule, approx 100ft square and didn't interfere with crops or grazing below.
Did you see this news earlier... how much tellurium does FSLR really have??
theaustralian.news.com...
smjj
On May 13 12:06 PM EnergyFinanc ier wrote:
> If you'd like to learn more about First Solar, Applied Materials,
> and SunPower, you should attend the Renewable Energy Finance Forum-Wall
> Street ( REFFWallStreet.com), held June 18-19 in New York
> City. The CEOs from all three companies will be speaking about the
> future of the photovoltaics industry and the economic and policy
> factors influencing project development.
Thx jegan ;-)
this means valuations will fall substantially
its called maturing industrial activity
nothing is proprietary about production of these panels
its like technology, continuing innovation needed to maintain high margins; and at a point it becomes a commodity
no one discusses this
Fortunately, I don't need to hit a lot of home runs (which usually means being a .250 hitter); I'm comfortable being a .300 hitter with a lot of singles and doubles, and few strike-outs.
I very much like the alternative energy industry, but I am not certain which stocks, or even technologies, will be the winners in 5 years -- let alone in 30 years! I very much suspect (a) there will be a shakeout, perhaps violently so, with most of the alternative energy companies disappearing (clearly, some are pursuing dead-ends or have poor managements), and (b) the winners will not be one technology, but several which are best for different applications. Therefore, I like to spread the risks with ETF's plus a few individual stocks added.
Thanks to you, I'll now consider adding Applied Materials to my portfolio.
Another promising area is Geo thermal heat pumps, any good candidates? I've heard a outfit called Water-furnace is a big name in this stuff.
I bought ZOLT a few weeks ago, thinking they would do well supplying both the wind and auto industries with carbon fiber, just to watch that stock go down. Holding onto it for now, as I hate taking a loss.
Speculated on SOLF a few days ago, and made a quick $2500 profit, as it surged through my limit sell price of $18 today. Cramer would not have approved, but I couldn't resist it as a speculative play as the price approached $13.
Think I'll use the proceeds to buy one of your top choices, probably FSLR, which is also one of Cramer's favorites. (He's not always right, of course. My best percentage increase ever was a biotech that he hated. Held it for only 2 days, and then it tanked. Sometimes you've got to take a chance).
Thanks for a great article. You've certainly generated a lot of thoughtful comments.
this will kill valuations
panels will become commodity products as more silicon becomes available to allow increase capacity
NCEN trying to be a player in the energy market - we'll see about that...
check out www.investorslive.com/...
I also got in and out of SOLF for a small profit last year before it had a huge collapse. I decided only to trade stocks I don't mind holding for long periods of time from now on. I'm still practicing my trading as it only accounts for about 5% of my position even though I make about 20 trades a month. My main trading principle is the change in the change in stock price. In other words when a stock accelerates on the way up it's commonly referred to as a break out and a buy indicator. Similarly when a stock sells off but the pace of the selloff slows to a stop it's also a buy indicator. This has been a great day trade with FSLR whenever the stock opens down on low volume. It will usually decrease it's downwards slope and then reverse itself at midday rallying back close to the open price by close. This doesn't work on high volume trading days since any resistance and support levels can be easily broken on volume.
GEA together with Ormat (NYSE:ORA) and Glitnir Bank will host a workshop on july 23 in NYC to introduce geothermal energy to America's largest banks and financial community. Among the present: Google.
Google announced that geothermal energy will be one of their focus areas for new investment.
More info: geo-energy.org
(Disclosure: I own OEGY.OB shares. I am an independent investor and I do not work for the company, nor do I have any ties with management.)
they report a profit. ASTI is pre-profit right now but if they meet
their bench marks and make some $ from Defense contracts, I
will buy some. I like the promise of their product, thin film on
plastic which no other solar company has. First Solar's thin film
on glass is more profitable than polysilicon.
As for wind, think local like you do with solar. A profitable
company, Aeroenvironment AVAV, is developing an
architectural wind product. The company is a small cap
defense company with a defense division and an energy
division. There is potential for a breakup of this company.
The defense division makes unmanned aircraft systems
which are being used by the Army and Marines in IRAQ
and Afganistan. The energy division makes battery charging
systems and architectural wind (small wind units which
can be incorporated into residential, commercial, and
industrial buildings). AVAV does not have a lot of
analyst cover nor has Cramer pumped this. In fact
he missed it a few days a go when he was talking wind.
These guys have a great track for patents and innovation.
The EV1 electric car was developed by AVAV.
(disclosure: I hold a small position)
Also, I suggest looking at utilities. Edison International
in southern California. EIX has gone from 16 to 54 in
5 years and pays a 2.3% dividend. EIX survived the
ENRON scam and due to NIMBY and California clean air
mandates is spending its resources expanding into geothermal,
wind, and solar, and developing energy conservation products.
EIX is AVAV's main competitor in architectural wind.
Unique technology, good management, a lot of patent.
Your view ?
"I am not aware of any a-SI that produces 9% efficiency from a commercial line"
...even though it was but a couple of days ago in a comment on another article that he acknowledged ENER (using a-si) is producing 8.5-9 ...WTF?