Consensus Economist Estimates

Includes: DIA, IEF, SPY
by: Bespoke Investment Group

As a follow-up to yesterday's post on Bloomberg's monthly survey of economists, below we highlight their consensus GDP, CPI and Fed Funds Rate estimates. In the first chart and table below, we highlight the median GDP growth forecasts from 65 economists surveyed.

We also provide their median estimates monthly going back to the start of the year. As shown, estimates have ticked lower each month, with the exception of a 10 basis point increase in Q2 '08 GDP estimates this month.

Consensus CPI estimates for the second quarter remained the same this month at 3.7%. They ticked slightly higher for Q3 '08, lower for Q4 '08, and higher for Q1 '09. Economists also increased their expectations for the Fed Funds Rate by 25 bps for the next 3 quarters after a month of market stability and signs that inflation is now a bigger concern than it was.