Buying, Selling, and Bluffing

You should always be extremely wary anytime someone cites some incident (magazine cover, event, etc.) as evidence of a market top or bottom. But I suspect there is something to the notion that when a certain asset class is peaking, financial firms repackage it in some way to squeeze some extra cash out. The IPO of the private equity/hedge funds proved almost too timely.

Chris Dillow points to the launch of a new ag fund and wonders if it means food prices are peaking (one hopes).

And Paul Kedrosky, the other day, pointed to the IPO of an energy financial firm.

You might say: well if they're selling, why should you be buying. Though by using that logic, you'd never ever call a bet in poker unless you had the mortal nuts. Sometimes the sellers are bluffing... though I don't know where you really go with that analogy.