Nearing Turning Point in the Presidential Election Cycle

I don’t place a great deal of faith in these indicators, but we’re nearing a traditional low point in the Presidential Election Cycle.

On average, the Dow is fairly weak from the September 6 of a pre-election year to May 28 of the election. Over that time, the Dow averages a loss of -5.2%. That may not sound like a lot but it’s an average of the entire Dow from 1896 to 2007.

After May 28, the Dow gains an average of 15.2% by the end of the year.

Comments

[John Egan]

It would be nice if George Bush left something as a legacy.. Even if it's his leaving office.... Thx jegan ;-)

[carey_jim]

Trouble is, when you go to Las Vegas, it usually doesn't work to start betting with a winner. His winnings and losses always move back towards the average and if he's playing a game of skill and has had too much to drink, he starts losing, no matter what he did when he was sober.
When the fundamentals aren't there, then no amount of Oigi Board analysis will be meaningful.
What are the fundamentals behind the movements you are describing?