I don’t place a great deal of faith in these indicators, but we’re nearing a traditional low point in the Presidential Election Cycle.
On average, the Dow is fairly weak from the September 6 of a pre-election year to May 28 of the election. Over that time, the Dow averages a loss of -5.2%. That may not sound like a lot but it’s an average of the entire Dow from 1896 to 2007.
After May 28, the Dow gains an average of 15.2% by the end of the year.