Market Recap: The market had a flat trading day after a solid gap up as the market followed through from Friday's excellent movement. The market made a nice move higher again as the market liked what it got from the jobs report on Friday. Despite a slight tick up in the unemployment rate to 8.3%, non-farm payrolls came in much higher than expected. That news was the catalyst the market needed after the Fed and ECB disappointed. The European markets were actually moving higher, however, on some more positive views of the ECB's plan to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. The news was keeping yields in check, which was providing market confidence as well. Overall, though, the rest of the week will probably be about the ECB, end of earnings season, and other economic data.
Moving into tomorrow, the market will no longer have jobs to give it a boost, so it will be time to turn back to Europe and new data points. The only American data point is Consumer Credit, but we do have some important earnings to watch from CVS Caremark (CVS), Emerson (EMR), and Boston Properties (BXP). Yet, its a quiet day again, which could mean we will not see a ton of movement overall.
Two trades we are watching right now are a pair trade in Carnival (CCL) long hedged with a short in Omnicare (OCR) as well as opening up a long-term position in Starbucks (SBUX). CCL and OCR were two stocks that had disappointing earnings after big buildups, but OCR is building a significant bear flag as it's not breaking out over key resistances during market strength while CCL has already built a bottom and broke above resistance levels during recent strength. We see CCL as benefiting more from upside in the market over OCR, and we see no near-term catalyst for OCR. Along with this, we like Starbucks for a long-term long. We have a 12-month $60 PT, and we see recent earnings weakness as exaggerated and creating a great place to enter the stock. We have seen a short-term bottom and it's a nice place to start to add. This company is very solid, and it will continue to see good growth, margin maintenance, and is developing new features we believe offer lots of growth moving forward. It seems the entire market forgot about its single-serving coffee maker it is releasing that pushed the stock over $50.
Trade #1: CCL, Long and OCR, Short
Trade #2: SBUX, Long
The market is looking at a light headline day with no major data for us at home and earnings that are pretty light. The market has big announcements it's waiting on now with the ECB and Jackson Hole Fed Meeting at the end of the month. While waiting, we would expect movement to be pretty flat. Overseas, we do have Great Britain Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers that will move European markets somewhat. We also get Italian GDP and German Factory orders. So, we do have some key European data to be released. All in all, we have a market that is more excited right now, and we should stay in a bullish way unless we get some information that the ECB will not be able to be successful in its plans or some other news that is unexpected.
We had a great day in the market as we were able to take a 2.6% gain in our pair trade long in Wolverine (WWW), short Mosaic (MOS). We also took a 9% gain off the table in our long-term position in Gildan (GIL). We also hit target #1 for a 2% gain in our Noble (NE) long in the Goldman Paper Portfolio. We added the above pair trade mentioned as well as a long in Ternium (TX) in our Goldman portfolio. We also added a long in American Eagle (AEO) and short in Dell (DELL) in our Earnings Alpha Portfolio.
We have the following positions:
In our Earnings Alpha Portfolio, we are long Apple , Disney (DIS), and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO). We are short Dell. We have a reverse iron butterfly in F5 (FFIV). We have reverse iron condors in Coinstar (CSTR) and Facebook (FB).
In our Goldman Sachs Up/Down Paper Portfolio, we are long Qualcomm (QCOM) and Terniu.
Chart courtesy of finviz.com.