Traders looking to capitalize on Cree's (CREE) earnings moves will find a more convincing bullish case, although overall, the stock has put up a pretty mixed post-earnings performance. Bulls will note: if CREE does respond to evening earnings with a gain, it's more likely to expand that move the next day than when it responds to earnings with a decline.
Over the last seven years, CREE is mixed in its trade, posting 14 wider post-earnings share moves and 14 reversal moves.
Looking deeper into the data, CREE has responded to extended-hours earnings news with a gain 13 times and has extended that move eight times, or 62% of the time. When the stock declines after earnings, which it's done 15 times, it builds on that move less than 50% of the time, doing so in six quarters.
Cree is scheduled to report its Q4 results after the close tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.23 per share on revenue of $306 million.
- On April 17, 2012, CREE declined 7.2% in evening trade after posting weaker-than-expected results and guidance. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, closing the April 18 regular session off 6%.
- On Jan. 17, 2012, CREE declined 4.2% in evening trade after reporting weaker-than-expected results and guidance. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Jan. 18 regular session up 4.8%.
- On Oct. 18, 2011, CREE declined 4.6% in after-hours trade after reporting mixed results and guidance. The stock was hit hard the next day, closing the Oct. 19 regular session off 12.5%.
- On Aug. 9, 2011, CREE charged 9.4% higher in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting mixed guidance for Q1. The stock leaped higher the next day, ending the Aug. 10 regular session up 15.5%.
- On April 19, 2011, CREE declined 6.4% in night trade after missing Q3 earnings estimates and setting guidance mostly below the Street view. The declines narrowed considerably the next day, closing the April 20 regular session down 2.7%.
- On January 18, 2011, the stock plunged 15.8% during evening trading after reporting a Q2 miss. Shares fell 14.5% the next day.
- On Oct. 20, 2009, the stock gained 3.5% during evening trading after CREE beat with Q1 results and guides for Q2 above Street. The stock jumped 11.5% the following day.
- On Aug. 11, 2009, CREE firmed 5% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 guidance above the Street view. The gain expanded in the Aug. 12 regular session, with the stock ending up 6.9%.
- On April 21, 2009, the stock turned lower in evening trading, ending down 2.1% after a Q2 beat and guidance that was in line to above the Street view. Shares eased a slimmer 1% the next day.
- On Jan. 20, 2009, CREE advanced 6.1% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations and offering mixed guidance. The stock soared the next day, closing the Jan. 21 regular session up 13.7%.
- On Oct. 21, 2008, CREE jumped 7.7% in after-hours trade after topping Street expectations and setting guidance mostly above estimates. It lost that gain the next day, reversing to end the Oct. 22 regular session down 1.7%.
- On Aug. 12, 2008, CREE advanced 9.5% in after-hours trade after topping Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 guidance above the Street view. The stock jumped higher the next day, closing the Aug. 13 regular session up 15.9%.
- On April 22, 2008, the stock fell 13% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results but disappointed with guidance. The loss widened to 14.9% the next day.
- On Jan. 22, 2008, CREE gained 1% during evening trading after beating with Q2 results and guiding for Q3 in line to above the Street view. The stock jumped 11.3% the next day.
- On Oct. 18, 2007, the stock gained 5.2% during evening hours after CREE reported ahead with Q1 results and guided for Q1 sales in line to below but EPS to beat. Shares reversed to close down 3.3% the next day.
- On August 7, 2007, CREE dipped 1.8% in night trade after beating Q4 estimates but offering mixed Q1 guidance. Shares, though, clawed back and closed the next day session up 3.4%.
- On April 19, 2007, CREE declined 2.4% despite beating on revenue and guiding its Q4 revenue above the then-current Street view. The stock added to its downside in the April 20 regular session, losing 3.3%.
- On Jan. 18, 2007, CREE dropped 2.3% in post-bell activity after missing Q2 sales estimates and forecasting Q3 below Street views. Shares fell further, closing the next day session down 5.2%.
- On Oct. 19, 2006, CREE jumped 5.9% in after-hours trade when the company beat Q1 EPS expectations by a penny and reported sales in line with forecasts. The shares, though, lost some steam and closed the next day's regular trading up a smaller 3.3%.
- On Aug. 10, 2006 CREE fell 7.3% in night trade after matching Q4 sales expectations and issuing Q1 guidance. The shares regained their composure the next day, ending the day session up 0.6%.
- On April 20, 2006, CREE slipped 2.8% in evening trade after the company predicted Q4 sales below Street estimates. The shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 10.8%.
- On January 19, 2006, CREE dropped 7.5% in night trade after meeting Q2 earnings estimates but just missing sales forecasts. The shares recovered slightly though the next day, ending down 6.4%.
- On Oct. 20, 2005, CREE advanced 4% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations and guiding in-line. It added to its upside on Oct. 21, rising 14.8% by the closing bell.
- On August 11, 2005, CREE slid 6.5% in after hours when it missed Q4 and FY05 sales estimates and predicted Q1 sales to fall below expectations. The stock widened its losses the next day in regular hours trading, ending down 13.7%.
- On April 14, 2005, CREE beat Q3 estimates and provided Q4 guidance that was in line with expectations. The shares rose 6.4% in the after hours and widened those gains the next day, ending up 11.8%.
- On Oct. 14, 2004, CREE lost 5.4% after the company beat on earnings but came in shy on revenue. The stock reversed its declines in next-day trade and ended regular session action up 1.5%.
- On July 27 of last year, CREE advanced 7.5% after beating Street estimates and raising its outlook. The stock edged a bit lower on July 28, and held onto a 6.6% gain by the end of the day session.
- Finally, back on April 15, 2004, CREE rose 3.7% after beating expectations and guiding higher. CREE slashed its upside, and swooned lower on April 16, eventually ending down 3.6%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.