In this article I will recap the historical results of the company, its latest EPS estimates vs. surprises, the latest news from NOG and the news from its closest competitors.
Recent EPS Actuals vs. Estimates
The company has failed to meet analysts' estimates in the last four quarters. In the last quarter it reported $0.23 EPS, just failing to meet analyst estimates of $0.24.
The consensus EPS estimate is $0.24 based on 12 analysts' estimates, up from $0.12 a year ago. Revenue estimates are $69.12M, up from $29.90M a year ago. The median target price by analysts for the stock is $26.00.
Average recommendation: Overweight
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades
- On June 6, 2012, Wunderlich initiated Buy rating for the company.
- On May 2, 2012, Northland Securities reiterated Outperform rating for the company.
- On July 11, 2012, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. provided a second quarter production and drilling update and oil derivative summary. Northern Oil expects second quarter 2012 production to increase approximately 20% compared to first quarter 2012, resulting in an average of approximately 10,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day. During the first two months of the quarter, the weighted average days on production was approximately 52 out of a possible 61 producing days, or approximately 85% of potential producing days. Preliminary estimates of June's weighted average days on production appear to be consistent with the first two months of the second quarter.
- On July 2, 2012, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced that, on June 29, 2012, it entered into an amendment that increases the borrowing base under its revolving credit facility to $300 million. At June 29, 2012, Northern Oil had no borrowings outstanding under the facility. The next re-determination of the borrowing base is scheduled for October 1, 2012.
- On May 15, 2012, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced that it upsized and priced its private offering to eligible purchasers of 8.0% senior notes due 2020 (the "notes") at an offering price equal to 100% of par. The offering of the notes has been upsized from $250 million to $300 million aggregate principal amount. Northern Oil intends to use the net proceeds of approximately $291.3 million, after deducting initial purchasers' discounts and offering expenses, to repay borrowings outstanding under its revolving credit facility, to fund capital expenditures, and for other general corporate purposes. The offering is expected to close on May 18, 2012, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
- On May 7, 2012 - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced 2012 first quarter financial results, an updated 2012 capital budget and other operational updates.
Continental Resources (CLR), Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG), Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Triangle Petroleum (TPLM), and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) are peers I selected for comparison with Northern Oil and Gas. The table below provides the key metrics for these companies and the industry.
The chart below compares the stock price changes as a percentage for the selected companies for the last one year period.
NOG data by YCharts
Competitors' Latest Development
- On July 26, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that it expects to report record total production of 94,852 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boepd) for the second quarter of 2012, a 76% increase over production of 53,984 Boepd for the second quarter of 2011.
- On July 25, 2012, Whiting Petroleum Corporation announced that based on continued good results across properties, it is increasing fiscal 2012 production growth guidance to 20%-23% from 17%-22%.
- On July 3, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that it has commenced a registered exchange offer to exchange up to $800 million aggregate principal amount of its 5% Senior Notes due 2022 which have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Exchange Notes), for any and all of its outstanding 5% Senior Notes due 2022, which were issued in a private placement (the Private Notes).
- On May 14, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that Jeff Hume, the Company's President and Chief Operating Officer, will assume the role of Vice Chairman of Strategic Growth Initiatives.
- On April 25, 2012, Whiting Petroleum Corporation announced that for second quarter of 2012, it projects production of 7.0 MMBOE to 7.4 MMBOE or 76,925 BOE per day to 81,320 BOE per day. For fiscal 2012, it projects a range of 29.0 MMBOE to 30.2 MMBOE or 79,235 BOE per day to 82,515 BOE per day.
- On April 18, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that it expects production growth of approximately 13% in the first quarter of 2012, compared with the fourth quarter of 2011.
- On March 28, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that it has entered into an agreement to purchase the assets of Wheatland Oil Inc. of Enid, Oklahoma. Wheatland's principal assets are an ownership of approximately 5% of the interest acquired by Continental Resources in all leases and wells in a defined portion of the Bakken play pursuant to a participation agreement effective January 1, 2002.
- On March 5, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that subject to market conditions, it intends to offer $650 million in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2022 in a private placement to eligible purchasers.
- On February 22, 2012, Continental Resources Inc announced that it now expect to grow production in a range of 37% to 40% for fiscal 2012. This compares to Continental's original fiscal 2012 production growth guidance of 26% to 28%.
- On February 22, 2012, Whiting Petroleum Corporation announced that it is increasing first quarter 2012 and fiscal 2012 production guidance to 6.8 MMBOE-7.2 MMBOE and 28.3 MMBOE- 29.7 MMBOE (+14% to 20% YoY).
The stock has a market capitalization of $976.15M and is currently trading at $15.37 with a 52 week range of $13.25 - $28.00. The stock's year-to-date performance has been -35.90%. It is currently trading below 20, 50 and 200 SMA. It has been trading in a major downtrend since March 2012.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, Marketwatch, Finviz, Reuters.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.