One Hot Natural Gas Stock 32 comments
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Whenever it comes to buying a stock I always let technical analysis make my final decision. However, since I know everyone invests in their own way I am going to bring a stock to your attention that I am looking to take a large position in sometime in the future.
This stock is Natural Gas Services Group Inc (NGS). Not only is the name of the company nice enough to draw investor interest, the fundamentals in this stock have it prepared to make large gains. Now, of course all of this depends on its business model not coming under tremendous competition.
While too many people focus on the wrong metrics when hunting for stocks, I always focus on what matters to make the stock make the big gains: CANSLIM.
The C is for current quarterly earnings and those are taking off, with EPS growing 67%, 27%, 29%, 120%, 40%, 58%, and 32% the past seven quarters. If that is not your idea of strong growth, I am not sure what is.
Those earnings are expected to continue with the A for annual earnings growth having estimates for 2008 for a gain of 18% and a gain in 2009 for 26%. That shows plenty of growth the for me..
The N deals with the stock hitting new recent 52-week highs. This shows that the stock is under heavy demand as the stock is nearing high ground proving the strength of the stock. If you notice, stocks that trade around $1 never hit $10. While stocks that trade from $10 to $25 normally make it to $50 when the sales and earnings are growing.
When it comes to the S of my checkup this stock, gets a huge pass as its group relative strength based on IBD puts it in the top 6% of all stocks with a 94 group RS rating, which means it is the 12th strongest industry group to the other 197. So the strength of the group is there with stocks like GTLS, FTI ,WFT, NOV and LUFK.
And with it being the second strongest stock in the group, after GTLS, based on EPS, ROE, sales, and debt means that you can’t have much better a stock in a group with such a favorable industry background behind it.
One of the most important things I look for in stocks that I am buying based on top quality fundamentals is to make sure mutual funds are also buying the stock. If you noticed ,GA and PFWD had very solid fundamentals but both turned down after the China earthquake. Nothing hinted that these stocks would crater except both stocks showed a slowing number of funds accumulating it (basically they were selling). They definitely are not selling this stock as NGS holders have increased from 18 to 22 to 27 the past four quarters. There was no growth the most recent quarter but at least it did not fall.
The last decision before I go long a stock I love with great fundamentals is to make sure the sector has a positive reason to rise. Obviously, with the US refusing to drill and build more refineries the long term looks up for this company. (Click chart to enlarge.)
This is definitely a stock I would love to get very long on a bounce off the 50 DMA or a breakout to a new high above the recent handle. However, nothing says you couldn’t go long now.
This is a top quality stock with only 8% debt.
Disclosure: No positions in NGS yet.
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This article has 32 comments:
I AM LONG NGS AND HAVE BEEN LONG. MY TRACK RECORD ON MY WEBSITE PROVES THAT WAITING FOR A BREAKOUT OR A BOUNCE IS THE RIGHT MOVE. SUPPLY AND DEMAND ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTNAT AND YOU ARE WRONG.
I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS FOR A LIVING!!!! ON MAUI!!! FOR 12 YEARS...THANK YOU VERY MUCH...I THINK I KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT...GOD BLESS.
HOW ABOUT CKX RECENTLY. DID CHARTS HURT OR HELP THERE????
TRY MIXING FUNDAMENTALS WITH TECHNICALS AND THEN MAYBE!!!! YOU CAN HOLD YOUR OWN TO THE PROFESSIONALS IN MY CHAT ROOM.
www.bigwavetrading.com.../
HAVE YOU EVER!!!!!! HELD A 1000% WINNER????
(CAPS ARE STUCK ON MY COMPUTER RIGHT NOW, LOL, DONT KNOW WHY)
MORON.
IT IS JUST SAD, EVIL PEOPLE LIKE YOU EXIST :)
GUARANTEES I MAKE MONEY!!!!!!! THANK YOU.
Yes, Joshua is passionate about what he does and probably at times maybe too passionate - most guru's are. Do yourself a favor, look at his site. Good luck.
For example: Not allowing the installation of new refineries is causing the gas prices to go up. If the refineries were the bottle neck then crude oil prices should fall since they would be plenty of crude since it could not be refined fast enough. Another point that many forgot to mention merger or oil companies lead to closing of many existing refineries. They forgot the continuous expansion of existing refineries.
Oh and not allowing drilling is the cause of the problem. First there were so many permits GIVEN out for natural gas drilling during the Bush administration that they cannot find enough equipment to drill. Second, Anwar in portrayed as the infinite oil source. Even though Anwar would AT BEST produce enough oil for just 6 months US consumption. It is amazing that the estimated reserves quoted for Anwar keep increasing with every politician. Soon it will be bigger that the whole Middle East.
The REAL problem is the US has 3% of the world’s oil reserves and consumes 25% of the world’s oil output and we are seeing peak oil. We have not even begun to talk about energy conservation. If we implemented reasonable conservation measures we could cut our consumption by 1/3. I see these jerks driving Expiditions/Yukons/Sub... with one person inside and an American Flag on the back. They using three times the energy that they need to and weakening the US economy.
Where were you in the late 90s when oil companies couldn't make a dime? Get your head out of the oil sands and let us extract it please! In the meantime, give some incentives for new fuels to come aboard...GIVE INCENTIVES!!!
AFSI 4-12-07 to 7-9-07
May 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
AFSI was by far my largest long position in 2007 as this chart was about as near-perfect as they can get for an IPO. It was a very easy decision to load up on this one (It only got to 15% of the portfolio due to the low VIX and low volume in the overall market). However, it was still big enough to make a strong impact on my accounts. From the start to the finish, AFSI gained 89%, 85%, and 73% respectively, from each of my longs, in three months. It wasn’t a huge Monster Stock but considering the horrible low-VIX environment that we have been in since 2006 it was definitely a big winner. This is the difference between a Monster Stock at the start of a bull market (TASR ‘03) and a Monster Stock near the end of a bull market (AFSI ‘07).
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2007 (Edit)
MAMA (now CNIC) 12-8-06 to 12-21-06
May 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment
MAMA was a quick hit but a HUGE hit. Those that were with me at InvestorsParadise should remember this stock real well as when it showed up I brought it to everyone’s attention. I did not know the stock was going to blastoff in two days and produce an IMMEDIATE 100% gain. But that is what this stock did and when the stock topped, I did think there was more to come as a huge turnaround was more than likely to occur. However, that did not happen, and in a span of nine days, MAMA produced a HUGE 228% gain. Thebure was no doubt about this being a Monster Stock. This rarely happens and I do not expect to get too many more like this in my lifetime.
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2006 (Edit)
PTT (now VCGH) 9-26-06/11-16-07/11-17... to 2-23-07
May 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment
PTT was a VERY BIG winner but the very first buy was not the biggest purchase. That was just a test position. The BIG purchases came from 11-16 to 11-23 as the stock started moving on massive volume, with BOP going max green, off a base with no volume. The pattern was very tight and fundamentals were starting to really pick up steam back then. From the very first purchase to the top, PTT made an impressive 440% in a short five months. The big purchases, from the perfect setup, produced anywhere between 290% and 405% in a very short three months and one week. My only regret is that I did not LOAD UP the boat and did not back the truck up on this beautiful and perfect monster stock setup. It should be obvious why I did not. A sub-$3 stock is not a stock I feel comfortable making a HUGE position after a FOUR YEAR BULL MARKET. I sold a lot of the stock on 1-11-07 before the top with a solid 247% gain in a little under two months. This was a very quick Monster Stock but this exactly how I wished every single one would work.
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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2006 (Edit)
AAPL 8-26-04 to 1-13-06
May 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment
AAPL was an easy stock to go long as IBD, thank God, was all over this stock with its new exciting product. This made it an easy buy on the breakout but with lack of green BOP I have to admit I did not load up to the point that I should have. Still it was a 95 EPS and 99 RS stock (or around there) making it an easy stock to go long after that base. Not only did I mess up by not loading up I also sold the majority of it off before the ultimate top. I still walked away with some huge gains as AAPL gained 393% in one year and four-in-a-half months and gained 147% from my second purchase to the ultimate top in one year. Most of the gain was taken with a 155% gain, as the first sell was my largest by far, in five-and-a-half months.
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2004 (Edit)
HRZ 9-27-06 to 7-19-07
May 2, 2008 | Leave a Comment
HRZ was an easy stock to LOAD UP as it bounced right off the 50 DMA, broke out to a new recent high on very strong volume and max green BOP that was max green during the very tight base around the 50 DMA. There was only one buy but I made it count as a large market order and a missed limit turned into a market order turned this stock into my biggest long of 2006. From the big buy to the first sell which was based off max green BOP turning away from the max green territory (the next day not pictured) gave a wonderful 67% gain in one month and three weeks. This was considered a Monster Stock despite the less than 100% return because it was such an easy stock to LOAD UP, the entry was perfect, and the chart is just stunning with its perfect beauty. However, it did return a full 100% as it gained 108% in six months when I made my second big sell and returned 126% in nine months and three weeks by the final top. I did not get the exact top but still took 110% at my final sell.
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2006 (Edit)
DSTI 4-21-05 to 7-18-05
April 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment
DSTI was one of my biggest positions in 2005 with it making up a very large chunk of my account as the chart, as you can see, was nearly perfect, even though the fundies were not. The top was nearly impossible to spot but it was still a powerful move in a short amount of time and almost all of the full move was realized as taking profits in a rising stock always enables you to hold on to most of the gains. DSTI was a great stock in a short amount of time, in a wild market, as it rose 144% in three months. It wasn’t a huge victory but it was an “easy” stock to get very long as the setup was nearly perfect. This setup is one of my favorite. HRZ in 2006 will be the one I love the best.
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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2005 (Edit)
IST 3-16-04 to 12-01-04
April 27, 2008 | Leave a Comment
IST was by far my best long in 2004 as this was a huge position in my portfolio as I went very long this stock on a lot of margin. Since this particular chart setup, I do not believe I have seen one as POWERFUL on the breakout buy signal. So this is a chart to burn into your head because the next time you see this pattern you do not want to hesitate in loading up. In 8 1/2 months, IST returned an incredible 352%. This was incredible because the buy signal was so clear and it was so easy to ride this stock as it rode the 50 DMA higher the ENTIRE way. It only dipped below it once and it did shake me out of some of my position but it was not a lot as there was a fourth buy and that fourth buy and part of the third buy was sold off. This was my best long in 2004 as it was a HUGE position and I believe has been my last position that made up at least 25% of my portfolio. There simply has not been a chart as nice as this since where the breakout is SO POWERFUL and the chart so green. Don’t try looking up IST either, you know it by a different ticker symbol now; MT. Obviously, this past big winner is STILL a MONSTER STOCK!
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2004 (Edit)
NANO 9-4-03 to 1-13-04
April 23, 2008 | Leave a Comment
NANO was basically a quick hit but it was a big hit and a fast and easy gain. Before the final top, you can see the stock pulled back into one more base where it barely went below the 50 DMA but held the very important line in the sand before taking off for one final run before topping. In a very short ten days the stock gained an incredible 79% RIGHT OFF THE BAT. After getting out of 50% right there, I let the rest run until it topped with a 166% gain in a short four months and two week. Not a HUGE MONSTER stock but a very nice, easy, steady, and green chart none-the-less.
the first buy:
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003 (Edit)
ECGI 7-7-03 to 9-22-03
April 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
This was not a large position but it was of substance and it was a big winner without a doubt as this stock went on to produce a 216% gain in two months and two weeks. Even if you only got in on the last purchase on 8/21 you still, if you sold at the top, would have walked away with an 80% gain in one month; compounded that is a sweet return.
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003 (Edit)
NENG 5-23-03 to 12-2-03
April 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment
NENG was a decent long but because of where the stock was in relation to the 200 DMA (way too extended) on the first buy I did not get a lot of the stock then. Obviously, by taking a look at some of the longs listed here before NENG broke out I was already quite long some HOT HOT HOT HOT HOT patterns. But this one was too noticeable, even with all the HOTTIES all around, that come 6/4 I did get a good size going. From the first purchase to the top on 12/2/03 the stock gained 343% in six months and one week. This was a beautiful chart that rivaled many of the other winners but I think you should be able to tell why I loaded-up on HIL and only bought a good amount of NENG. It is all about risk. From my second buy to the top, the stock gained 298% in a little under six months.
Read more
Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003 (Edit)
hey...
why don't we drill in ANWR
why don't we drill in the OCS (where CUBA and CHINA are already you MORONS!!!!)
why not go take the oil out the shale in the USA and Canada
why not give tax breaks to oil companies so they can spend more money on FINDING THE OIL
why don't we get rid of the government taxes for ONE YEAR at least to prove how painful the federal taxes are
And finally why don't we build more refineries. the last one was in 1973
OH BUT WAIT LET ME GUESS...this is all Bush's fault.
Have you IDIOTS heard of China, India, and a GLOBAL WORLD.
Hello, we are the ONLY country NOT exploiting our own natural resources.
Let's do what every other smart country does and why don't we INVEST IN ALTERNATIVE FUELS also
....or does that not serve the wishes of the marxist who would love to see our wealth redistributed to the evil regimes that KILL their own people.
BTW, how do you like the price of food? A lot of good that ethanol is doing.
How can people that read this site and see my returns still question the economics behind this.
LONG NGS and VERY HAPPY and looking o get long is NGAS. But it needs to pullback and build a handle and then breakout on strong volume to prove the big boys are accumulating it.
Oh but wait..let me guess...those charts don't work.
Continue to stay ignorant
Yep....you got me I am one huge fraud. Come and visit me on Maui any time you like. I'll be more than happy to shake your hand and show you my returns and teach you how to invest for a living.
But let me guess, you don't want to take me up on that.
This fraud is also a waterman!
Well I live in Lahaina Hawaii, my name is Joshua Hayes, if you think I am a fraud I INVITE you to PERSONALLY come and visit me. I have a feeling you are the fraud.
A public record of picking huge winners since 2005 on my blog and since 1999 in a chat room with 200 members. Yep, you got me. DORK.
There is a ton of fear out there regarding energy prices...hurricane season is about to kick off. Its seasonal, with fear comes panic in markets up or down. In this case, according to the futures market natural gas prices want to move higher. Once we begin seeing hurricanes entering into the Caribbean watch out for energy prices. In this case, why not own the best out the the natural gas group? Seems pretty straight forward, no?
And if anyone thinks i am angry with ronh. LOLOL. not at all. I find people like him and that user funny but come on if you were me would you put up with that.
nobody in this country fights for themselves anymore. i do since that is what i have done since i was a child. i knew when i started writing here i was going to take crap from some people and that is ok. but realize when you attack me you are attacking someone who has NO OTHER ULTERIOR motive.
On my website I post EVERY BUY and EVERY SELL to my subscribers before I even make them. So please dont be so mean. Well if you want to be mean, go ahead. But just know evenutally i am going to ignore it.
I enjoy Seeking ALpha and if some of you have never held a 300% to a 1000% winner in YOUR LIFE......you might want to read some of my columns and take some time to study my past big winners.
Maui No Ka Oi and I want to thank everyone once again for all the great comments. I am very happy to see MOST of the responses are very good.
And that crazy guy who thinks market speculator is me....uhm...he lives in New Hampshire, I live in Hawaii......trust me he isn't me....sad. ROFL
btw, I apologize for saying IDIOT so much but for those that honestly dont think we should drill and you see prices doing what they are doing....you honestly have a MAJOR MENTAL PROBLEM.
But I am VERY SORRY for calling anyone an idiot. I normally take the high road but I do have multiple sclerosis and I have to take every-other-day beta-seron and sometimes they can make you get a little hot headed.
But truth be told I just LOVE THE STOCK MARKET and I have personally been involved with MANY HUGE stock market winners since 1998. However 1999 is when I felt I had it down!!!
Ronh is only bashing me beause he is jealous. Instead of paying 1/4 a million to go to college, I made a 1/2 a million in the stock market by the time my bros were graduating.
You can be jealous of me all you want but just know I get to go surfing tomorrow, look at HOT girls in bikinis, and then get to scan charts and the fundamentals of those stocks.
Yeah...my life sucks! LOLOLOL. Seriously I live the dream. I wanted to do this at the age of 16. I did it at 21 and here I am 29 living the dream.
CANSLIM CANSLIM CANSLIM CANSLIM it has changed my life forever!!!! You should try it ron.
This is my passion. I have 6 computer monitors and if I am not surfing I am working on the market. BUt the beauty of this is if I ONLY wanted to work 2 hours a day...that is all I have to. I live THE PERFECT life...if only less JERKS from the mainland quit coming here.
No aloha spirit. People like ronh are NOT welcome on Maui. Your hate and jealousy can stay home.
Everyone else, if you are ever comign to Maui, LET ME KNOW!!!!!! I would love to meet some of you.
Isn't it funny how the worst traders bash the hardest. Great traders NEVER bash anyone. Do you ever notice that? :)
Jesse Livermore
Gerald Loeb
Nicolas Darvas
Jack Dreyfus
Jim Roppell
William O'Neil
all traded the exact way I trade. So my analysis on this stock being bashed is unecessary. However, it does make for a good discussion. However, I have noticed with most post on any website...TA is bashed by those that do not know how to use it. Price and volume matter. History has proven it. FUNDAMENTALS are the ONLY THING THAT IS IMPORTANT in driving a stock higher but telling someone to not use charts to help them time a buy is like telling a doctor to not use an MRI or a CAT scan. Since you don't understand it...someone else can't possibly make it work.
Facts are facts. NGS is a great stock. If it is going to run and produce for us a PDO type of move (that I got for a 207% move along with pointing out MXC to ALL subscribers) then I am going to give it to you. I could do this all day long by myself but how does that give me any joy? There are over 10,000 stocks out there and there is a piece of the pie for us all out there. For those that want more of the pie great places to learn are investors.com bigwavetrading.com or possibly sharkinvesting.com
NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN FUNDAMENTALS. However, the greatest active-investors of all time learned how to use charts to hep them to time the buys and the sells along with learning how to spot tops. For those that do not know what a top looks like, study a weekly arithmetic chart of PBT.
ALOHA from the most beautiful island of Maui :)
Thank you everyone for creating a nice little discussion!
And even a thank you to those that were mean and that OBVIOUSLY do not know me. I only hope people are not as rude to you when they first meet you. :) ALOOOOOHA see you at my website.
ALWAYS cut your losses before they reach 8%. It is the only way you can last for the long haul as odds show that most investors/traders are wrong more than they are right. And trust me, in a bear market, there is no doubt you will be wrong more than you are right.
[2008.05.29 09:37:41] JoshuaHayes: new highs
[2008.05.29 09:37:43] JoshuaHayes: new price
[2008.05.29 09:37:44] JoshuaHayes: new product
[2008.05.29 09:37:47] JoshuaHayes: new management
[2008.05.29 09:37:57] JoshuaHayes: new director
[2008.05.29 09:38:05] MarketSpeculator: new new new
[2008.05.29 09:38:05] JoshuaHayes: new anything
[2008.05.29 09:38:07] MarketSpeculator: new new new
And...it is a new product..ion based (not new to you...but NEW to wall street)
Momma always said if you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all. You would be wise to learn something from this saying.
Also how do people get away with putting up comments which are not backed by facts? I guess they learn this skill from our unbiased news media. Keep on$$