Housing Affordability Proves Elusive

Includes: ICF, IYF, IYG, IYR
by: Colin Twiggs

Thirty-year Fixed Mortgage rates remain at 6.0%. Rising treasury yields, however, would increase upward pressure on mortgage rates, suggesting the decline in housing prices is far from over.

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Compared to Treasuries

I normally measure housing affordability by the ratio of the S&P Case-Shiller Composite Housing Index to Disposable Income per capita (before adjustment for inflation). There is a sharp fall to nearly 0.45%, the high from the late 1980s, but the index remains well above the 0.40% level normally needed to motivate home-buyers.

Housing Affordability

Bear in mind that the above does not even allow for the bite that higher fuel/gas prices have taken out of disposable incomes — nor the depressing effect they will have on house prices in outlying suburbs with longer commutes.

Disclosure: None

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