3% Down Days in Oil

While yesterday's 3% decline in the price of oil has many oil bears celebrating that the top is in, we would note that yesterday's decline was the 29th one day decline of 3% or more in the last two years.  Looking back at those prior occurrences shows that the average return of crude oil the following day is 0.58% with positive returns 75% of the time.  Some would argue that yesterday was different given the large drop in oil inventories, but until proven otherwise, the bulls have history on their side.

Comments

[mikeylikesit41:]

Okay okay... I get it but please don't tell everyone. I've got sell orders in for my other stocks and I want to make a little more profit off of them before everyone realizes it was just a breather for oil.

I also want to roll those extra profits I'll make off the stock rise into my oil and commodity investments.

Shhhh! If you tell everyone, then none of us will make any money.

2008 May 30 09:51 AM

[whisperonth...:]

I'm making more in dividends from oil stocks than I'm spending in increased gasoline costs. If I get a smaller car, I'm going to be rolling in dough! YEAH!

2008 May 31 08:00 AM

[Paul Killinger:]

Good article and great comments, guys. Watch the debate on "cap and trade" (Warner-Lieberman) in the Senate this week. Depending on the outcome, we'll know more about the short term direction of energy prices then.

2008 May 31 10:41 AM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

Get an all electric, Check out the electrics at Zenn motors but wait until the Highway model comes out.

2008 May 31 11:25 AM

[Paul Killinger:]

I'm no fan of GM, but the Chevy Volt, due out now in about 16 months, may change the face of the automotive industry forever. Depending upon its public acceptance, it may also alter the entire energy debate. We'll see.

2008 May 31 11:46 AM

[Jase:]

Agreed, XOM below $90 is a screaming buy.

2008 May 31 10:28 PM

[ship shape ...:]

Why does everyone think that it is cheaper to drive an electric car?
What will happen to the price of electricity, when everybody drives an electric car?

It's not like coal prices and uranium prices did not go up.

2008 Jun 01 10:30 AM