Help Wanted: Newspaper Classified Ad Sales Continue to Slide 31 comments
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Declassified. That word, usually associated with top secret government documents, aptly describes what’s happening to the newspaper industry these days as publishers try to endure one of the worst markets for classified ad sales on record.
For newspaper investors, it means more pain than gain in 2008. That’s because the double-digit declines in classified ad revenue that plagued newspaper operators every quarter during 2007 are continuing well into 2008. Real estate, employment and automotive classifieds are in the tank and the fall-off isn’t showing any sign of abating, especially given the outlook during the rest of the year for high oil prices, slower consumer spending, weak jobs growth and depressed housing prices.
Newspaper publishers reported dismal classified ad sales in April, the latest period for which figures are available. For the month classifieds were down 29% at Media General (MEG), 28% at McClatchy (MNI), 23% at the New York Times Co. (NYT) and 20% in the U.S. for Gannett (GCI). That’s on top of similar declines during the first quarter of 2008. In all likelihood, the collapse in classified ad revenue will surpass the fall-off the newspaper industry experienced in the wake of the dot.com bust in 2001-2002 (see the Newspaper Association of America’s tally of ad sales here).
Stung by the steep declines in classified sales, advertising revenue at 10 of the country’s publicly traded newspaper companies fell 10% to $2.8 billion during the first three months of 2008 (see “Newspaper Industry – First Quarter Revenue Survey” here).
Print classified sales at the 10-company sample plummeted an estimated 24%, while local retail revenue slipped 8% and national sales dropped around 5%. Circulation revenue eased about 1%. Overall, total newspaper revenue at the 10 publishers decreased 8% to $3.8 billion.
Quick note: These aren’t “same-store sales” figures. They’re my estimates based on an analysis of the quarterly numbers reported by the companies. That said, because of the geographic and demographic diversity of the papers involved and the fact that there was minimal M&A activity during the periods reviewed, I believe it paints a pretty accurate portrait of the health of the newspaper industry.
With the fat margins associated with classified ads slipping away, publishers are watching cash flow drop precipitously. EBITDA at stand-alone newspaper operators fell 24% during the first quarter, while EBITDA at the newspaper divisions of larger media companies was down 21%. On average, EBITDA margins slid on average about 300 basis points for the 10-company sample during the quarter.
For value- and income-oriented investors, the steep stock price declines and corresponding high dividend yields make newspaper stocks a tempting contrarian play. But until there’s greater visibility on the ad sales front, I’d look elsewhere for investment opportunities.
Disclosure: I don’t own shares of newspaper stocks.
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