Solar Again Under Attack

Solar stocks may be under attack again today... Bloomberg is reporting First Solar's (FSLR) 2nd largest shareholder sold half his shares. Meanwhile, Chinese poly wafer producers LDK Solar (LDK) and ReneSola (SOL) have been downgraded. It is noteworthy that Morgan Stanley underwrote LDK's convert offering and upgraded LDK at the same time. MS seems to come clean finally that LDK is not a buy.

Time to short FSLR too. I've noticed that FSLR CEO Ahearn sold nearly 1/2 of his position since it started to trade in the high $200s. How could that not be bearish for the stock when the firm's founder dumps his shares like thin film is going out of fashion.

I believe the smart money will rotate out of solar/wind and into healthcare (down about 50% YTD).

By the way, oil is down as I suspected - time to short oil big time! Net long positions fell by nearly 80% since june 2007. Hedge funds are reportedly pulling out their investments as the government is getting ready to crack down on speculators.

Notablecalls: These comments come from a close Solar watcher.

Comments

[chinooking:]

more manipulation,someone should go to jail for the solar dump and pump and dump over the last 3 trading days

2008 Jun 02 08:01 AM

[chinooking:]

and who is this anonymous author of this story?you ought to be working the pink's boy.kinda remind me of Toby Keith's song the critic

2008 Jun 02 08:06 AM

[Van Gastel:]

Another baseless article, bad and baseless call to short on a very bad day.

In Germany all the solar shares are well up after Bosch announced it would buy Ersol, one of the larger German Solar players. Ersol is up 63% to nearly the bid price of 101€, from 63% at the close. Ersol, the second biggest solar cell manufacturer had a market cap of 3.6 Bio €, only after Q-Cells (comparable to first solar with thin film), which has a cap of 8.4€.

It was obvious to me that Ersol was lagging because of competition from our Chinese friends, even though they never even mentioned it.

Hold on, this could be the beginning of a bigger wave in consolidation.

Short this at your peril.

Marc

2008 Jun 02 08:07 AM

[Van Gastel:]

I meant 63% up from 63€ at the close the previous day.

2008 Jun 02 08:54 AM

[tedS:]

Is it a true story that the CEO of First Solar sold 50% of his shares? At Yahoo! Finance it shows that in the last 6 months insiders sold 8% of the total (the total shares held by insider was 27.5 millions). But it doesn't show the names of the sellers.

2008 Jun 02 09:12 AM

[gebby:]

sol became hard to borrow for the first time just 3 days ago before the down grade. but stock gapped up. i guess they needed the downgrade to make a profit. they cant trade just rely on insider info. sol is a buy it will be in the 40 in 12 to 18 months. ldk has rallied from 20 to 48. it continues to probe higher. the stock will overcome this downgrade and work higher. fslr is a short. it is way over priced and the technology has environmental concerns.

analysts are paid yo put out reports when the research department tells them to. nit because they have a valid idea.

2008 Jun 02 09:29 AM

[gebby:]

i am not selling my solars to buy healthcare. i guess i am not a smart investor.

2008 Jun 02 09:29 AM

[User 182177:]

gebby:

Your statement, and I quote: "I am not selling my solars to buy healthcare. i guess i am not a smart investor."
======================...

If a guy whose thinking is much superior than 99% of investing public (individuals as well as institutionals) says " He is not a smart investor", I certainly would love to be one (not a smart investor) any day.

2008 Jun 02 10:25 AM

[Alphameister:]

The better alternatives to FSLR are less likely to be found in healthcare than in TSL and YGE, both trading near major support at much lower valuation ratios.

2008 Jun 02 11:45 AM

[PM:]

In Aug/Sept 07, over 3.5 million shares of FSLR were sold around $100/sh by the insiders and we all know what happened to the stock after that.

2008 Jun 02 02:42 PM

[The Stockac...:]

Read this: By friday of this week, the odd thought of this silly article will be old news... fundamentals suggest clearly that by late July, and after SOL's next earnings announcements', SOL will be at least $53.00 per share. Most analysts have a target price of $40.00 or better. The addition of the ADR's will not have any affect of share price of SOL, only earnings will. The way they are placing the ADR's is in a careful manner that will show little diluted affect, very well planned by the company. This coming quarter's earnings will be outstanding, better than the last. Go to the SOL site (and perhaps google around a bit) for an explanation of all of this... too much to explain here. SOL as with most exponentially growing Chinese companies, by nature and custom (and perhaps by law in China) is very modest in prediction of growth and profit. Hence why last quarter's announcement had such an amazing affect on share price. I have been following SOL for some time. It will be above $110 by this time next year... one has to have patience. Not sure what this above writer means by "healthcare", such a broad title by definition, but almost all of "healthcare" is continuing to have a difficult time showing (now and in the future) any profit in the face of health insurance company and government planned severe restriction of allowance of spending... certainly one would never see the kind of growth and profit as seen in the energy sector, especially solar. The cost of all energy will be very expensive later this year and into 09'. Strange to even compare an energy sector with healthcare, no real relation of behavior of the sectors. Medical instruments, stents, etc., have enormous competition with one another, increasing liability. Hospitals are and will be very limited in what they can charge. Medicines are under scrutiny, many are found to be not useful... and on and on. Solar, on the other hand is now in greatest demand, even on all street lights throughout asia and latin america. Oil and coal as energy is becoming very expensive. Solar companies are showing multiple quarter after quarter growth in profit that seems amazing, few industries before have shown this kind of growth in history. Similar to when computers were new in the 1990's... IBD's and Bloomberg's computerized and completely unbiased ranking systems (as well as other professional ranking systems) now has many solar companies, and energy exploration companies, in their rank of most profitable and most growing of companies in the world, for now and the near term. There are never any healthcare companies ranked in their top one hundred best companies in the world, by various rank criteria. Healthcare always shows to be a poor investment. SOL is the best of the sector (solar and perhaps energy generally) by far, in profit and growth. This, my note was carefully researched... the above article was not. Why did I research SOL so much today? Because I decided to buy 25,000 more shares which I will likely do early tommorrow. But anywhere under $25 is an amazing price for SOL, and anywhere under its high of about $29 is also still a very good buy that won't soon last. I would suggest to buy now for the amazing future of this company and sector.

2008 Jun 02 03:34 PM

[The Stockac...:]

SOL to over $50 shortly... It should be noted that asian area investors, Hong Kong, China, Japan, India do not read or care what Morgan Stanley would say or not say. They will be buying SOL tonight and each nite while the US is asleep. By next week, this article will be irrelevant as SOL creeps to $27 per share. If SOL does not reach over $50 share price by July, it certainly will by late August. Most of Asia, Tokyo, Hong Kong, the middle east and much of europe is in plans to put solar panels on every street light for starters, beginning now... by next year, the inexpensive product line of SOL will be required spending in most countries and their governments. SOL is an amazing buy at today's price.

2008 Jun 02 03:57 PM

[User 204392:]

Keep pimping it, Steve. Maybe you alone can drive up that price. ;)

2008 Jun 02 04:13 PM

[greencapita...:]

this is shocking. i also read bloomberg story on this.

a ceo selling 50% of stock is shocking. add to that cd/te issue of toxicity. and add to that potential eu ban due to toxicity and add to that cd/te is rare to find....

WHERE IS MARK ANTHONY????? he was telling the above points non stop....

if all above are true, fslr will trade at other solar stock valuations which means stock price of 100 or less.

2008 Jun 02 07:28 PM

[Ghost rider:]

Check the SEC website for the Form 4's of the CEO and you'll see he sold off about 15% at prices around $300. He still owns more than 3 million shares. How long is he suppose to wait before enjoying a small part of his success?

Disclosure: Long FSLR

2008 Jun 02 08:27 PM

[stvcomment:]

little to say about nothing. Please stick to facts

2008 Jun 03 07:55 AM

[User 182177:]

From time to time the magazines, related to investing, publish data tables that rank companies in terms of Total Revenue, Market Cap, and Performance (% Return) over periods of 1-, 5-, and 10-years.
However, neither Total Revenue nor Market Cap means anything to the investors, it is the Performance (% Return) that really counts - which directly affects the investors' financial well-being. Since the solar sector is still at its infancy, especially in terms of the investment opportunity for the public - here in the US, most stocks in this sector have been around for only 2 years or less. Let's define a Gold Standard for determining the Leader (or King) of this young sector - the Leader (or King) of the solar sector must be out-performing all other stocks in the same solar space for both periods, 6-month and 12-month.


A company named Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is not even mentioned in the most recent three articles (previously, yes) published in SA related to solar including their associated comments, as if CSIQ doesn't even exist. However, if you apply the Gold Standard, you will find that CSIQ is the undisputed "King of Solar" which dethroned the old King (FSLR) some weeks ago. With its impressive growth rates in both revenue and earning, coupled with the potential and highly likely improvements of its profit margin (currently very low) - CSIQ can, and probably will, scale to incredible heights, in the coming years, unimaginable today, I believe.


Dr, Jack Yetiv is a widely recognized solar investing genius. But when it comes to another field - investing, Dr. Yetiv is no Warren Buffet. He let the gem, that he worked so hard and so diligently,and for so long to uncover, quietly slip out of his hands. Dr. Yetive, however, remains my hero.

2008 Jun 03 09:58 AM

[Theodore De...:]

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

2008 Jun 03 11:38 AM

[buysolar:]

Garbage post. Totally out of touch with reality.

These manipulators want to rob your shares.

Tell them were to go and don't give them any notice.

Downgrading solar is downgrading our future.

2008 Jun 04 05:51 AM

[dicki31785:]

Dr Jack Yetiv knows what he is doing....He took the stock(CSIQ) from 18 to 33..and sold before the earnings....I bought on his advice and do have to say i did the same mistake....wish i would have just bought a few puts before(as i usually do when I am up a lot) instead of selling but cant change the past....

i got back into the stock at 38....and that stock is a clear winner...(I also like SOL but currently hold no long position in that stock)...The advancements CSIQ has made are incredible....The UMG technology is progressing very well and will contribute to results this year...The company will earn $3 this year (my estimate is way above consensus)...the company earned $.61 cents in Q1...and if we just have twenty percent quarter over quarter earnings growth the 3 dollars will be easily reached(.61+.73+.88+1.... you what CSIQ can achieve this year....

Also a lot of pressures are gone...and two huge news are out which are going to affect the solars at some point....Obviously the solar subsidy cut in Germany wasnt as bad as many expected...So good for Germany since lowering it a little bit and good for the industry since it wasn't lowered too much...Also what a lot of people haven't heard yet in the US...Spain took the cap off solar subsidies....and that is huge for the second half of 2008 because the expectation was that after Spain subsidies are "worked off" one just go to Germany and installs panels their..now you have two quiet strong markets for the second half of 2008 which is going to help the sector at a whole....So the future is bright...Also since a socialist is ruling in Spain it will be a lot more green energy friendly in the future...So the most important thing is solved now and that is subsidies....for the industry as a whole now one has to pick the right players...With kind regards from Germany

CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

2008 Jun 04 05:51 AM

[dicki31785:]

*.61+.73+.88+1.05=3.27... see what CSIQ can(will) achieve this year

ps should have really read through that entry....hopefully it is understandable

2008 Jun 04 05:56 AM