Berry Petroleum: Earnings Fit with Oil Price

As stock price of buy-recommended Berry Petroleum (BRY) reaches estimated net present value [NPV] of $50 a share, the industry outlook and the company’s prospects offer further profit potential. First quarter results released today recorded higher cash flow, higher earnings and higher oil price than in our estimates from three months ago.

Projected volumes along with current futures prices promise a continuing high level of unlevered cash flow (Ebitda). NPV is supported by projected cash flow capitalized at unlevered multiples (PV/Ebitda) related to reserve life (Adjusted R/P).

NPV can be enhanced as Berry develops its backlog of high return investment projects in diatomite oil and Piceance natural gas. Also beyond our basis for estimating NPV, oil price continues to trend upward. Meanwhile, Berry is delivering earnings per share that fit with the trend in oil price.

Originally published on April 29, 2008.

Comments

[The Stockaccumulator]

The
Stockaccumulator

Good article, but a far better buy today would be PBR during this brief rare, mini-pullback in PBR...Read the below carefully researched article from "The street.com on Petroleo Brasileiro:

" (PBR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) shareholders have earned a 172% return on their investment over the last 52 weeks.

"If last week's positive earnings announcement is any indication, this Brazilian oil company has a lot more going for it than just good-looking charts (though the charts look good, too.)

PetroBras Returns Continue to Beat Oil and Brazil Investment Benchmarks

PetroBras boasts nearly a $300 billion market capitalization (its market cap just passed that of Microsoft(MSFT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)).

In fact, it now claims to be the third-largest publicly traded company in the Americas, behind Exxon Mobil(XOM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and General Electric(GE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr).

With a presence like that, it's clearly a bellwether stock both for the Latin American region and in the oil sector.

PetroBras does a lot: It explores for and produces oil and natural gas. It sells surplus production in Brazil and foreign markets. PetroBras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants and petrochemical units. It is also building new pipelines for ethanol distribution and recently set up a separate operation to manage all its ethanol activities.

Here are three reasons I like PetroBras.

1. The recent oil and gas announcements are real.

In the last six months, PetroBras has discovered three super-giant oil fields in Brazil's offshore Santos Basin. The company also confirmed in January a major natural gas and condensate deposit in the Jupiter area.

If estimates of 33 billion barrels in reserve from another field (Carioca-Sugar Loaf) prove correct, then this ranks as the third-largest oil field in the world after Saudi Arabia's Ghawar (66 billion barrels) and Kuwait's Greater Burgan (46 billion barrels). "

Rudy Martin the writer ot this is the former director of research for TheStreet.com Ratings. Earlier he worked 25 years in investment research and management positions with Fidelity Investments, Lincoln National, Dean Witter Reynolds and Transamerica Investments. He began his career as a securities investment analyst at Duff and Phelps where he published equity and fixed income securities investment recommendations. Martin holds a master's degree in finance from Kellogg Northwestern University and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. "

It is expected that PBR will have a huge number for this coming quarter's earnings announcement very shortly. Never has there been such a huge expected net profit number from any oil company, and due to the April and May record price of crude. The graphs show the accumulation going into and through each earnings announcement to be far more impressive than any other large oil/gas company... One will have to take great risk with smaller similar companies... PBR will make you money next week/month, and expect $140 by next year this time for PBR... todays $68 is a brief temporary bargain... in a week or so PBR will be back to its all time high of $78... this is a rare opportunity... research it, look at the graphs... amazing for such a large well established company that is perhaps the microsoft of oil...

I may buy 20,000 more shares of PBR today or early tommorrow...

Warmest regards... the STOCK ACCUMULATOR