NCC: Housing Affordability Is Back [Housing Tracker]

| About: National City (NCC)

Quotes of the Day

"We've covered a lot of territory in terms of restoring balance in the housing market. The froth has been completely blown away." - National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser. DeKaser says the drastic declines in home price values have brought equilibrium back to many previously unaffordable U.S. housing markets. (CNN Money, June 2nd)

“Given the magnitude and acceleration of these declines, California home prices are not expected to recover in the near term.” CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming. (Housing Wire, June 2nd)

House Sales and Price Data

Prices Of Homes Steady As Sales Drop. “Honolulu Board of Realtors: Only 252 existing homes were sold [in May], compared with 357 a year ago, a 30% plunge. The median home price held steady at $649,500… from $650,000 a year earlier. Demand from buyers continues to decline, according to real estate agents, while inventory continues to climb… Condominium sales also took a nearly 30% dive, with only 382 existing condos changing hands in May, compared with 543 a year ago… Single-family homes required a median of 52 days to sell, while condos typically took a median of 41 days, both increases from last year's 42 days and 38 days, respectively.” (Honolulu Star Bulletin, June 3rd)

Foreclosure Numbers Loom Over Early Positive Signs For Housing Market. Missouri: “St. Charles County Association of Realtors: Existing home sales were down in April to 405 from 485 over April 2007. Average sale price during April 2008 for new and existing homes, however, rose 4.4%. Existing home sales began the year at 293 in January, but have risen every month thereafter... MarketGraphics report: From March 2007-March 2008, there were 2,770 closings on new single and multifamily homes, compared to 4,104 between July 2004-July 2005 [at the peak.] Inventory of existing homes for sale dropped from a year’s worth of properties to six months of inventory from the outset of 2008 through April.” (St. Charles Journal, June 3rd)

Housing Affordability Back To Pre-Bubble Levels. “Financial research firm Global Insight and banking company National City Corp. (NCC) survey: Declining home prices across the nation are bringing valuations - the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price - back to pre-bubble levels… Home prices declined in 262 of the 330 metropolitan areas surveyed during Q1’08. The sharp dip in home prices means that only 8 markets can now be considered overvalued, down from 14 markets last quarter. In mid-2006, at the height of the bubble, a full 53 metro areas were considered over-valued… [From Q1’06 to Q1’08], Stockton, Calif. has gone from being 71% over-valued to 4.3% over-valued.” (CNN Money, June 2nd)

California’s Prices Off 28 Percent From Peak; Housing Risk in Los Angeles Soars. “First American CoreLogic: Home prices in the Golden State have now fallen an average of 28% from their peak three years ago. Some local markets within the state — including Stockton, Merced, and Modesto — have actually seen price corrections nearing or exceeding a whopping 50%… CoreLogic monitors 28 key core-based statistical areas in the state, and identified two Southern California markets as the most likely to see price declines in the next six months: the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area, and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale area… Currently, for every new residential building permit issued in California, three foreclosure notices are being issued.” (Housing Wire, June 2nd)

March Loanperformance HPI: NJ Prices Down 5-10%. “First American CoreLogic: Forty Two States Show Decline in Past Three Months. “Two thirds of all states now show year-over-year real estate declines according to this latest LoanPerformance HPI release,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. “Although only one-third of CBSAs are depreciating on a nominal basis, on an inflation adjusted basis 90% of CBSAs are experiencing real price declines. Only 10 percent of CBSAs are experiencing real inflation-adjusted price increases,” added Fleming. 12-Month Change By Top CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) as of March 2008 Edison, NJ: -4.98% New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ: -3.58%.” (NJ Report, June 2nd)

Price Per Square Foot Drops In 23 Of 25 Metro Areas. “Radar Logic Inc., a real estate data and analytics company: The price per square foot [PPSF] of residential housing dropped in 23 of 25 U.S. metro areas during March compared to March 2007… The PPSF fell 30.6% in the Sacramento, Calif., metro area, with double-digit percentage declines in 13 of the 25 tracked market areas. The PPSF was up 2.8% year-over-year in Milwaukee and was nearly flat with a 0.1% gain in Charlotte. The largest monthly change was in Chicago, which saw a 9.8% rise in the PPSF from February-March, and the largest monthly decline was in Miami, down 4.1%.” (Inman News, June 2nd)

Denver Company Creates Index For Home Prices. “Integrated Assets Services LLC, a manager and seller of foreclosed houses for lenders, launched its IAS360 House Price Index on Monday. The Denver company's new index looks at monthly changes in median selling price for traditional, single-family detached houses at the county level, starting with April 2008 sales. IAS evaluates 360 U.S. counties, but reports data to the public on only "30 statistically relevant counties that demonstrate trends in volatility and stability across the U.S. housing market," according to IAS. Counties mentioned in public reports may vary to reflect regional market trends.” (Denver Business Journal, June 2nd)

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