Electric Cars for 2010: Shift from Foreign Oil to Riding on Local Renewable Energy
With oil prices rocketing past $130 per barrel, a growing number of vehicle makers are planning to offer electric vehicles by 2010. Zero gasoline will be used.
Over 40,000 electric vehicles [EV] are currently used in the United States. Most are used in fleet applications, from maintenance to checking parking meters; these EVs are mostly limited to 25 mph speed and 20 mile range. A growing number of fleet EVs, however, are early trails of a new generation of freeway-speed EVs that will be available to the mass consumer market in 2010.
Mitsubishi is on target to sell its electric vehicle in the U.S. in 2010. The i-EV is a friendly looking sub-compact which easily handles freeway speeds. Its expected 100 mile-plus range per charge will meet the needs of urban dwellers and most in suburbia. The drive system uses three permanent magnetic synchronous motors which receive power from a 16kWh lithium battery stack. Tokyo Electric Power (TKECF.PK) is currently testing ten i-EV
Nissan’s (NSANY) and Renault’s famous CEO, Carlos Ghosn, plans to be selling electric vehicles in the U.S. market in 2010. He anticipates more cities following London’s model of expensive congestion fees, with fee exemptions and preferred parking for zero-emission vehicles. In many markets, Nissan will offer electric vehicles with permanently installed lithium batteries that will be trickle charged. Nissan owns 51% of Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, which plans to be producing lithium batteries for 10,000 vehicles annually by 2010. Plant expansion has begun to produce lithium batteries for 60,000 electric vehicles annually.
By 2012, Ghosn plans to have a Renault-Nissan alliance offering a wide range of electric vehicles in many major markets, charging ahead of all competition. (See Economist Article)
In Israel and Denmark, Renault and Nissan will partner with Project Better Place to sell electric vehicles without batteries. Project Better Place will lease batteries that can be quickly exchanged at many locations. The exchange will take no longer than a traditional gasoline fill-up, appealing to motorists needing extended range. The battery lease will cost a fraction of what most now spend on gasoline.
Popular in Europe, Think Global will bring its electric vehicle to the U.S. Think City reaches a top speed of 65 miles per hour and can drive up to 110 miles on a single charge. Think City meets all European and US federal motor vehicle safety requirements. At the Geneva Motorshow earlier this year, Think announced a strategic partnership with energy giant General Electric (GE), also an investor in Think. By 2011 look for a larger THINK Ox. Think has also established partnerships in the US with battery suppliers A123 and EnerDel (Subsidiary of (ENON)). Think has established a U.S. headquarters and will begin sales in the U.S. before 2010. A123 Technology Review Article
In 2009, the Smart EV may be available in the U.S. The cars 70/70 specs are appealing for city drivers: 70 mile range, 70 mile per hour freeway speed. Daimler’s (DAI) Smart EV is in trail in the UK with the Energy Saving Trust, Islington and Coventry Councils, Lloyds Pharmacy, EDF Energy, BT (BT), and other fleets. To achieve a range of 72 miles, it is using the Zebra sodium-nickel-chloride battery which has caused maintenance difficulties in some U.S. fleets.
The cityZENN is planned for a top speed of 80 mph and a range of 250 miles. Powered by EEStor barium-titanate ceramic ultracapacitors, the cityZENN will be rechargeable in less than 5 minutes! Venture capitalists are betting that stealth EEStor is real. On Friday, May 30, ZENN Motor Company (ZNNMF.PK) announced that it had raised another $15 million dollars.
Most major auto makers continue to believe that most U.S. customers will insist on ranges exceeding 250 miles and a national infrastructure of fuel refilling (or recharging) in five minutes. Even as GM announces factory closings and plummeting sales, CEO Richard Wagner states that GM is committed to bring the plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt to market by the end of 2010. If it can deliver at under $30,000, the vehicle will offer tough competition to some of the smaller EV players.
As Toyota (TM) solidifies its number one global market share leadership, it also remains on target to deliver a plug-in hybrid to the U.S. market by the end of 2010. It is likely to have an all-electric range of 40 miles and a gasoline range 10X that amount. Watch Toyota use an expanded line of hybrid vehicles to unset GM, making Toyota the market leader is the U.S.
May rained on every auto maker’s parade in the U.S., except Honda (HMC), which set sales records with its fuel efficient Civic. Honda is passing Chrysler to become the #4 seller in the U.S. Honda is rumored to be bringing a new hybrid to the U.S. next year priced in the mid-teens. This will give hybrids a big boost in market share from the current 3% of total vehicle sales.
While I was giving a speech at the Fuel Cell 2008 , Honda announced that it would lease 200 Clarity FCX hydrogen fuel cell cars for $600 per month, including maintenance. In June, it will start selecting from 50,000 who have expressed interest in the 270-mile range four-door sedan. The FCX Clarity is aerodynamic and beautifully styled. Honda’s new hybrid is likely to have a similar body style.
Some critics have dismissed electric vehicles as golf carts for retirees and sport car toys for millionaires. These critics have missed a fundamental market shift that started with the success of hybrid-electric cars, light electric vehicles, and with e-scooters. Customer enthusiasm for electric vehicles is the result of many factors:
- Oil Prices
- ZEV Cities & Congestion Tax
- Electronic drive simplifies auto design
- Vehicle weight reduction with electric accessories and components
- Reduced maintenance because of few mechanical components
- GHG Regulation
- Battery technology advances that reduce cost and weight
- Increased battery safety
- Success of hybrid-electrics
At the FRA Renewable Energy Investor Conference (my presentation handouts), I led a panel discussion about electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Major private equity and project finance investors were optimistic in sessions about electric vehicles, solar power, wind power, and carbon trading. Many expressed discouragement in the biofuels sessions, but at the same time saw increased opportunities with bioenergy and bio-methane from landfills.
In a few years, millions will be driving full-featured freeway-speed four-door sedan electric vehicles. Look for a shift away from foreign oil to riding on local renewable energy.
Disclosure: None
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This article has 33 comments:
hamovess
GM's noisemaking about electric cars is the latest in a series of efforts to divert attention from its failure to make any real headway in improving mileage for its underengineered fleet of mastadons. Electric cars will no more be able to solve the dual crises of environment and oil supply than magic carpets:
1. they are no replacement for the conventional refuelable-at-a-millio... auto for flexibility, useablility and conformity with an existing infrastructure
2. the electricity to charge their batteries had to be generated and transported by a system that is taxed to the limit without the strain of the nation's transportation.
While electricity may be useful for some limited purposes -- location-specific quiet or cleanliness where the vehicle will be used solely under controlled conditions - it makes no sense for a general purpose vehicle. Bear in mind that millions of urban drivers park on the street - far from a "friendly" source of controlled electricity; where do they recharge their batteries? An even larger group occasionally use their cars for other than strict point-to-point commuting or local errands: load up the car, the kids, and the presents, and drive all night to see the folks in florida or nebraska, or wherever. They want to refuel every 300 miles (a normal range) in the time it takes for a pit stop and a McDonalds hit - and then be on their way. Would the GM dreamers have them line their cars up at a "recharging station" on the Jersey Turnpike or I-80 outside of Salt Lake City while their batteries are charged?
What GM needs to do is to develop technology which is real - lower eission engines - and useable - modern chasis designs which are powered with lighter weight, more efficient engines - and to stop using the smokescreen of gee-wiz phony tech to mask its failures in useable, practical engineering.
Savings in oil and reduction in emissions will be incremental - 2mpg from lighter autos, 3 mpg from better designs, 1 mpg from tires, etc. - rather than with a "big bang" that ignores driving habits and needs and is completely inconsistent with the transportation infrastructure.
Cranky investor, The recharging issue will find is sollution as easily as the "fill up with gas" solution of oil stations. Like the proposed system in Denmark and Israel to simply exchange empty battery's for full ones in gas stations. As long as the oil price goes high enough, people will eventually make the move to EV's en masse. If you consider how much money a family pays yearly on gasoline, then it's not to hard to understand that at some not to distant point the gasoline price will simply become "to much".
Energy for
Prosperity
How will the growth of electric cars affect neodymium prices? And will neo supply limit electric car growth, or can substitutes be developed?
Fist
A type of critical mass is achieved with newer technologies when huge amounts of money/minds get invloved. Solar power generation and electric vehicles have been around for a very long time. However, current world needs have made them very relevant today. Reading on some of the almost weekly technological advances being made in these areas would help some of us to understand better the potential here.
With the advent of things like nanowire, fast charging battery systems, solar panles that produce energy at less than the cost of coal, etc. our world and these industries will change drastically over the next several years. The car I would like to buy has not even left production lines yet, but guess what, it's a hybrid that will get upwards of 300MPG!
In general PHEVs will NOT be completely battery dependent but simple possess deeper packs; in most cases there will still be a gas motor kicking in at times to recharge the battery pack and extend range. All electric vehicles remain very limited in their near-midterm potential due to battery costs and speed/range
limitations, and IMO the next 10 years will belong to PHEVs like the Volt and
new Prius, along with the dozens of others you'll see coming on line from 2010 on.
And I wouldn't underestimate Ghosn's influence here. He is a recent convert to EVs and appears fully committed. Project Better place has not only signed up Israel, but now Belgium to become first adopters/beta testers of the concept, which I find brilliant. There are something like 40,000 battery swap stations already contracted to be built, and in smaller countries this may well make the concept of a pure battery run vehicle feasible.
My entire family is sick of manipulated gas prices.
Don't count out the Subaru Re1, it could be as cheap as $13,000 in 5 years:
www.autobloggreen.com/.../
Local sourced electricity is the clear replacement fuel for transportation. Distributed solar located on commercial rooftops, car parks and vacant land can supply substantial amounts of this energy requirement -- as already proven in Germany. Installed solar prices for select thin film mfgrs produce power at or below the price of coal fired power RIGHT NOW, and those prices are dropping.
We have passed the tipping point on renewable energy and electric powered cars, and the new administration from both parties promises to make a green tech energy plan a cornerstone in their leadership of this country.
The lowest cost thin film solar comes from:
CIGS -- only public company ASTI; leading private companies include Nanosolar, Global Solar, Miasole, Heliovolt]
CdTe -- only public company FSLR
AMAT plants using a-SI/crystalline on glass dual junction technology
Solar is the only renewable technology that promises almost zero maintenance and requires no long transmission lines as it can be deployed in and around metropolitan areas where the power is used.
The U.S. uses one terawatt of electricity now per year. Imagine natural gas becoming unaffordable for winter heating. So now you need two terawatts (can't burn the tree in the backyard forever). Add in millions of electric vehicles that used to run on gasoline (night charging may help for awhile) that have to be powered. Now you have THREE terawatts that you need. The whole world generates four terawatts per year. We are expecting this 1960s electric grid which is hanging by a thread even now to supply all this power?
You ultra-Greens would do well right now to COMPROMISE and have the Congress adopt an intermediate term energy policy that ensures adequate energy supplies for our nation's economy until your more eco-friendly technologies prove themselves.
But I know you guys, so I may as well be talking to myself as I write this. As a result, let me tell you what is more likely to happen... your complete intransigence to do what's best and compromise this issue while you have the votes to do it will lead us off an economic abyss from which it will take our nation years to recover.
Your disdain for the majority of working people caught in the middle of this "war" is already resulting in severe economic dislocations in a number of industries, unnecessary pain for millions of hard working Americans, and may well end up causing a real war, as well.
It also proves you didn't learn anything from the Jimmy Carter years, as you rush headlong to make the identical ideological mistakes again. When the smoke clears, you guys will be sent back to hugging trees, and will have set back your movement by decades.
It's is your best interests, too, to do the right thing while you can, and come out of this mess as heroes.
We must start with intelligent city planning, preventing driving in the first place. Greenbelts with nice bike paths will work wonders. Light-rail lines and other mass transit solutions are a great idea. Building new rail lines and maintaining old ones will do a lot to conserve liquid fuels in freight transport. We must switch to carbon fiber--not steel or aluminum--for vehicle chassis. We must power these EVs with distributed renewables--photovolta... wind, micro-CSP, geothermal, wave, tidal, whatever is most appropriate for a given location. I can't wait to buy an EV but I'm not gonna go cruise it up and down the block for no reason or move into a house that requires a a 500 mile round-trip commute every day because that's just plain stupid. Anyone complaining about the range of EVs should consider how often they need the additional range and do the math---with gas at $4.00/gal, it's probably much cheaper to use the EV the vast majority of the time and rent a gas or diesel for occasional longer trips. If you're having to travel very long distances all the time, you might wanna stop and ask yourself if you're living in the right location or if you have the right job or if that job is worth it.
An EV uses 1/4 the energy of a combustion-based vehicle of the same weight due to the inefficiency of the engine. If EEStor succeeds, today's solar cells with an EV would be cheaper than today's gasoline-powered vehicles. With lithium and carbon composites, it's also possible, except there's not enough lithium. There's plenty of barium and titanium for EEstor.
By the way, they need to be working on zinc batteries. The world supply of lithium is not sufficient to supply high demand for battery operated vehicles.
Answer: The plug-in Prius. A combination of EV and gasoline engine will empower Prius owners to access whichever power source works for them and the current economic conditions.
Since it is already a proven product, drivers will be far more likely to open their wallet for a Prius than a funny-named one from Israel or Norway or wherever.
At least I hope so, because I bought stock in Toyota and it's down 18 percent so far! Groan!
Problem is, we need progressive minded political leadership to make this a reality. It can happen sooner or later but it will happen. Let's hope it's sooner...
jr.
Get solar panels and wind turbine and battery pack and charge your car off your home made electrify.
Rebut anyone that tells you different. We are running out of time fast.
www.kobashi.co.uk/envi...
I understand youre sentiment about it, and i had a lot of concerns before i jumped in to. However i jumped in under 0.60 before they and a move all the way up to 1.2$ recently, at wich i sold half at that resistance point. Free investment for me here, and it's a very cheapish stock.
Things seem to have changed a lot since a few weeks with Zap, and maybe it's worthy to check the company again and take note.
About 3 weeks ago Zap started to move very strongly from their 0.40$ low to about 1.20$ not so long later, the innitial good news was that ZAP had achieved a very strong growth in in their order backlog. from the news:
biz.yahoo.com/iw/08051...
/
SANTA ROSA, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 12, 2008 -- Record gas prices are driving more consumers to seek electric transportation, says industry pioneer ZAP (OTC BB:ZAAP.OB - News). The Northern California Company reported that as of April 8, 2008 it had $6.8 million in backlog orders for the Xebra electric sedan and pickup from auto-dealer purchase contracts.
The $6.8 million backlog in dealer purchase contracts surpasses ZAP's sales for all of 2007 and are based on a delivery schedule over a 12-month period. The backlog for ZAP's consumer products on the same date was $712,000, including sales for the Zapino and ZAPPY3 scooters, ATVs, Recharge-It-All battery systems and others.
/
Not so long after that, Zap got a new CEO. A rich UAE bussinessman, head of a large vehicle retail firm. Mr. Eqbal Al Yousuf of Dubai form the Al Yousuf Group.
biz.yahoo.com/bw/08052...
/SANTA ROSA, Calif. & DUBAI, United Arab Emirates--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Electric car pioneer ZAP (OTCBB:ZAAP - News) today named Mr. Eqbal Al Yousuf Chairman of the 13-year public Company. The effective date of his appointment will be June 2, the day of the next scheduled meeting for the board of directors.
Mr. Eqbal Al Yousuf is President of Dubai's Al Yousuf Group. He was appointed as the President of Al Yousuf Group in 2005. The Al Yousuf Group is a company that over the past 55 years has grown into a leading business conglomerate with operations ranging from Motor Vehicles, Boat Manufacturing, Auto Rental, Real Estate Development, Home Electrical Appliances, Computer Operating Systems, Electronics, Transportation and more. The Al Yousuf Group has proved to be one of the most reputed business groups in the UAE and is now working to become ISO certified in accordance with international standards of quality.
Mr. Al Yousuf has been taking a greater interest in ZAP over the past year. In November, the Al Yousuf Group purchased US$5 million worth of ZAP shares. In December, he also joined ZAP's Board of Directors.
"My staff and I have researched the EV industry and have concluded that ZAP is one of the only pure-play public companies with viable electric vehicles in the marketplace at a time of record gas prices," said Mr. Al Yousuf. "I intend to use all my relationships and resources to ensure the Company will be successful and grow."
"Mr. Al Yousuf is a strong believer in alternative energy and conservation and really wants to make the world a better place," said ZAP CEO Steve Schneider. "He is taking a much stronger interest in the direction of the Company to ensure its ability to deliver vehicles on a global basis. With his relationships throughout the world, Mr. Al Yousuf believes he can make this dream become a reality.
/
Mr Yousuf was so kind to take over about half a million$ of convertible debt.
biz.yahoo.com/iw/08051...
Next up was the news that the state of California, one of the world's largest economy's on itself, is now granting a 1000$ tax rebate for the purchase of a Zap car.
biz.yahoo.com/iw/08052...
/
SACRAMENTO, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 29, 2008 -- The California Air Resources Board is offering a $1,000 rebate towards the purchase of a Xebra electric car and truck from ZAP (OTC BB:ZAAP.OB - News).
Source: ZAP
California is giving $1,000 electric car rebates to buyers of the ZAP Xebra sedan and truck.
Both the Xebra electric city car and pickup have passed a full battery of testing and approval requirements by the California Air Resources Board and have been officially approved for the $1,000 cash rebates. To receive a rebate, vehicles must be ARB qualified and pass a range and speed course as well as comply with all federal motor vehicle safety standards, and meet a minimum manufacturer warranty.
/
Then Zap begins to aquire interrests in another company, a electric wheel motor company. For the development of better wheel motors. Advancing in technoligy with an exclusive on the use is a good thing, technoligy will play a major role in the succes of any EV company.
biz.yahoo.com/iw/08060...
/
SANTA ROSA, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jun 2, 2008 -- Electric transportation pioneer ZAP (OTC BB:ZAAP.OB - News) announced today that it has acquired an ownership interest in an electric motor company to develop and manufacture a new line of wheel motors for future vehicle developments and global distribution.
Source: ZAP
Wheel motors like this 3000-watt drive system used in the Zapino electric scooter can deliver more power, performance and efficiency.
Under the agreement, ZAP is collaborating and investing in the development of a line of wheel motors for various types of electric vehicles, from an electric bike or scooter to an electric car. ZAP and its partner have also agreed to work together on the optimum process for manufacturing all motors and controllers. ZAP has been granted exclusive rights to the wheel motors under the agreement for international distribution.
/
So let me propose a scenario.
Mr. Eqbal Al Yousuf is from Dubai. A enourmesly wealthy oil state. He is no oilsjeik himself, but he lives at the source, or close to the most major and important sources in the world. Oil is now as today at 138 dolar, as of 7 june 2008. Wow it did jump today. I can see the oil speculation warning article's backlog on this site, it goes all the way below to 80$ from Januari on. Never mind, i find Mr. Eqbal Al Yousuf view on this more refreching, atleast he sits near the oil, and there he goes aquiring and Leading an Electrical vehicle company, and he has yet to prove he's wrong with that investment. If you had followed the oil bears ...
But you would think the most logical investment to make at this very point, in this very reality of 138$ oil, is in the electrical vehicle industry. Mr yousuf apprently think's so to. This is a baby inustry, and were right into an new sort of oil crisis that might last and get worse to. A lot of capital could begin to flow to the EV industry quite very soon under this reality, if only there were enough listed EV company's that are interresting.
So Mr Yousuf identified Zap as a company he could step into, to make his move in the EV industry. He must have had some considerations to think why exactly Zap would be interresting.
And why not Zap? Zap has sold most EV's of all EV company's to date, and is sellign more than ever now. Zap is there, present, much more than others. Zap cars are cheap, and an EV should be cheap, it's for people who don't wanna pay high gas costs, rich folk do not care to much about gas costs. Zap is improving on it's technoligy, and are developing better cars.
The Vehicle industry is a hughe industry. Quite a few of the top 20 company's in the world are vehicle producers. As a hughe market it's spilt over dozens of individual company's, and many of these company's go into the billions of dollars in market cap. Toyota for one has a 161 billion$ market cap. Zap has a measel 53 million$ market cap. What if Zap could just become one of the futuere's established EV vehicle firms? The upside is hughe, for a minimal investment at this point you could well become rich.
So you could begin to wonder and ask yourself the question: How deep are the pokects of Mr Al Yousef? Because what if the man is everything a rich UAE bussinisman is known to be on the financial level, and has vision and ambition that could take this industry by surprize? Mr Al yousef might have insights that we lack, he's has a stake in Zap for a while.
What if mr Al Yousuf's vision is that he could beat most others to the dominant role in the EV industry early on. Zap is already the most established EV company.And oil is soaring right now, it could be the perfect storm. Zap is cheap now, and if it could becoem the major player, it could be a impressive long term multi bagger.
Anyway, i could understand that people still are conservative about this company as an investment right now, then again it might be an opportunity of a lifetime. I would atleast deffinatly say that Zap is a company to follow closly, very closly indeed. Because it would be an enourmous missed opportunity if this company can break trough, and anyone can be convinced with sharp rising sales and profits, so wouldn't you want to be in this if it does become profitable and established?
xmplary.blogspot.com
There are currently hundreds of electric vehicles being offered; some are being delivered. The article made no attempt to cover them all. If you want to look at many offerings, follow this link: www.alibaba.com/showro...
I loved riding in a Tesla and hope that they overcome their problems that have made them 18 months late. Here is my Tesla article. www.cleanfleetreport.c...
Over the past years, Zap has sent me press releases announcing billions of dollars of deals. I do not appreciate Zap promoters using my articles to promote their stock or their vehicles. Read the following SEC filing carefully. www.sec.gov/Archives/e...
I am confused about the comment "You ultra-Greens would do well right now to COMPROMISE." Customers will continue to make a wide range of choices from electric vehicles to big SUVs. I have written over 70 articles about a wide range of ways that people and corporations are using less oil. The solutions include electric vehicles, gasoline hybrids, improved diesels, high-speed rail, public transportation, corporate commute and flexwork programs.
Yes, some have good reason to be skeptical about EEstor. A modest VC investment is no guarantee of success. A123 has attracted over ten times the investment in EEstor. We will see if ZENN delivers a car using EEstor by 2010, or ever.
Yes, Toyota is likely to be a major force with a plug-in hybrid. Although A123 and others are doing Prius conversions, do not assume that Toyota’s offering will be a Prius plug-in. They may develop a distinct brand that is smaller and lighter for more range.
Electric vehicles are already successful in many fleet applications and with individuals in places like university towns. In three years, new affordable freeway speed electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will accelerate the current success. Yes, there will be some companies that succeed and some that fail. We need both incremental improves and cleantech innovation.
bariumtitanate.blogspo...
Tiedeman
Less CO2 and noise pollution, slow global warming
USA reduces trade imbalance
Reduce money going to unfriendly countries.
Electricity is easier to distribute than liquid fuels. Coal fired plants to produce electricity also pollute, but it is easier to control at one source than thousands.
If Eestor delivers, it would be the breakthrough to hasten this conversion.