Regarding the National Bank Financial 50-odd page initial coverage report on Kodiak Exploration Limited (KXLAF.PK) (KXL.V, C$2.60) by Brian Christie: I am long the stock and I bought more Monday just on the action -- good volume, good move up, no news. So I was gratified to learn today what the reason was for the action, and to get my hands on the PDF and bring home a stapled copy.
In the long run, I think we will look back at this June 2 initial coverage document by NB as the beginning of a new phase in the history of this stock.
To be precise, I think you are going to see a wide variety of financial entities (research departments and newsletters, mainly) feeling more inclined to consider the stock as a result.
Imagine this conversation at a major Canadian brokerage, where George, the chief of research, and a couple of his boys are sitting around the conference table with the CEO, known to all as J.B.
J.B. 'So George, I see where Christie has come out with an Outperform on Kodiak. Where did we leave that?'
George: 'Well, the last time we talked about it, J.B., we sort of said let's wait and see. And Christie didn't really come out that strong Monday. He just initiated coverage. But since NB has had its fingers in their secondaries, you're right J.B., that there's a good chance Christie will be following this summer's drilling with something more emphatic.'
J.B. 'Maybe you and your minions need to get your boots on and check out those veins they've exposed out there in Geraldton. I wouldn't want to look too late on this KXL. Maybe we can say it's a spec buy while it is still under $3.00. What say?'
George: 'You got it, J.B. I'll get Kodiak I.R. on the phone today. I have room on my schedule in late June, actually.'
In a nutshell, these hounds run in packs, and a lead dog, has just started the hunt.
You may think I am overstating the case, but please allow me to explain why I think this report is a milestone. It has been my suspicion for quite a while that, because Kodiak KXL was given birth through the process of taking over a shell stock (as opposed to a classic IPO), the company has had to contend with a quite common shunning process from the big boys until now.
That part always made sense to me. I understood it from dealing with previous stocks. In this case, I decided to look at the lack of obvious institutional support as a blessing -- a relaxed time in which to get comfortable with the stock and its management, buy, sell, see how it trades, etc.
Initially, I did buy into a runup last November, paying over $4.00 for my first shares, as did many investors or speculators who are much better heeled than I am. I generally do not average down. So I had to study the company hard before I decided to average down. I have done that and my average cost is now just $2.52 U.S.
So I have been reading posts, rechecking the stock on Stockcharts in the meager ways in which I know to look at it technically, listening to and watching presentatations on the kodiak site, and so on, for more than six months.
During that time, I have not seen or read anything about this company or the way it behaves that has made me uncertain or untrusting of management. No false moves. No backing and filling on the way they worded anything. No slippage.
All I have seen is a first class company in action: assembling and expanding their properties brilliantly and affordably; raising money with extraordinarily good timing while avoiding dilution with finesse; running a web site that should be a model for mining companies; and publishing a first-rate annual report.
I especially have appreciated them offering video links to presentations that they have given. Excellent level of disclosure!
During all this, however, I have wondered why they didn't have more of a pickup from the newsletter writers.
Specifically, how come this stock hasn't been picked up by Casey, Adrian Day, Zeal Intelligence, or the Hard Rock brothers? I could be mistaken, in that there may be some other letters I don't know of that are recommending the stock and I am just blissfully unaware. But I subscribe to five or six newsletters and routinely get a chance to read quite a few that I don't pay for. The only ones I know of that have pushed the stock are a little more obscure -- for instance Alan Barry and Discovery Letter might be recommending it.
This past lack of enthusiasm, in my opinion, demonstrates that the bias against non-IPO startups extends even to the newletter boys. They are just not sure enough of themselves to stick their necks out.....until somebody like NB performs a benediction like the one we got Monday.
I believe that the sheer magnitude of the gold discoveries that Kodiak is making, coupled with the presence of the Richardsons within the inner circle, have finally opened up a subtle and potentially very lucrative gate for all KXL longs.
Disclosure: Author holds a long position in Kodiak Exploration