Apple: Anticipating What Steve Jobs Will Say Monday

For Apple (AAPL) investors, Monday is the day people have been anticipating for months: the debut of the 3G iPhone. Or at least, that’s what everyone on the Street assumes CEO Steve Jobs will talk about when he takes the stage for the keynote address at Moscone West at the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference.

Shaw Wu, an analyst at American Technology Research, has some theories on what we might see on Monday. Here’s a rundown on his thoughts, as laid out in a research note this morning:

• 3G iPhones, likely priced similarly to current models, at $399 and $499.
• Lower-cost, refreshed 2.5G models; he expects price cuts of $50-$100. Wu says it will still make sense to sell a 2.5G version of the phone, since coverage is still relatively low for 3G. He says that in some markets, such as Latin America, “having a 3G version to offer doesn’t make much technical and economic sense.”
• New business model in some markets: he says revenue sharing from carriers in emerging markets is likely to be less than with AT&T, or possibly zero.
• New iPhone features, including “an improved virtual keyboard with haptics,” to provide a more keyboard-like feel, GPS and location based services and a thinner casing.
• An update on SDK momentum with developers.
• 50% chance of new device form factor at 4-inch and 7-inch screen sizes, sort of a hybrid between a Mac and an iPod Touch.
• New Macs are “less likely.” But he does say that a “radically refreshed design” is likely to be introduced in the summer or fall.
• The stock’s direction is difficult to call; he notes that Apple product introductions are often “sell the news” events. He advises investors to buy the stock on any weakness.

Wu continues to see iPhone units at 11 million in calendar 2008 and 17 million in 2009. He calculates that every 1 million additional units boosts profits by 15-20 cents a share over 8 quarters.

Comments

[Zoltar]

Apple will launch a new 2.8" iPhone, a new 3.2" iPhone and possibly announce a 4" and a 7" mini-tablet devices, all running Mac OS X.

It is the start of a new computing paradigm, as important as the graphical user interface and mouse in the original PC - a Mac! - was.

But important as it may be - and it is! - this is NOT the most relevant news. The most relevant news have been heard by everybody already but, somehow, it hasn't sink in to fully understanding its reach.

Apple is expanding internationally big time using the iPhone as a Trojan horse and viral marketing tool. Given the cultural and economic differences, the developing countries are the ones that'll show more interest for these handheld computers and will buy them in droves. Apple products will be talked about and bought all over the world. I say Apple products and not just iPhones because it is widely known that it doesn't take long for people to buy Macs and dive into the Apple ecosystem once they get their hands onto an iPhone.

So, in sum:
- Apple is launching a whole new handheld computing platform that will change the world as we know it;
- Apple is expanding internationally, making for quantum leaps in growth from iPhone and Macs sales.

This translates that, in one year's time, Apple will have doubled its size in revenue/profit and, likewise, AAPL will have doubled to ~400 or higher since stock prices translate forward looking potentiality and people will then have no doubt it is growth growth growth to never before seen heights.

Now don't you think this is the right time to go get some fresh AAPLs?!

[TanToday]

So ....

We now gonna liss'n to the same SHAMUU that DOWNGRADED Apple right before an earning call with a HUGE increase in profits, then FLIP FLOPS about two weeks later with a STELLAR UPGRADEANDSELL?

Essentially, SHAMUU is saying...

They MAY, or they MAY not, but stay tuned, cause I WILL DEFINATELY predict that the price WILL rise, OR fall, and you can take that to the BANK!

The man should LAY LOW for a year or so, to let the STINK of his pandering faux pas blow off....

And Eric...

SHAME ON YOU for continuing to put this honky whore out there as worthy of the electrons it takes to post this!

[TanToday]

FWIW....

Apple will "sell" about 1 million phones in the first 48 hrs, with the only constraints being the meltdown of the Apple online store.

Just the STOCK UP with the seventy nations now that can "legally" buy an iPhone will be MORE than that in the first few days.

Remember, IF they use a reduced price for a CONTRACT model, that will ACCELERATE the sales exponentially, AND have the corollary effect of negating a LOT of the "unlocked phones" that produce little to no monthly revenue.

So, you have the unit sales exponentially changing UP, and the REVENUE aspect due to legalized machines UP { even if the model is for a lower sharing percentage, assuming that model is still the one they are working with }

AND the kicker....

EVERYONE that goes into one of these "other world Apple shops" to SEE not just BUY an iPhone, will in all likelihood be exposed for the FIRST TIME to the Apple "Experience" and if they are smart, they will have point of sale materials for the desktops, and laptops. Remember, in many of these countries, Apple has been a "weirdo product" a niche of a niche, and MOST of the world has never touched one, played with the OS X operating system, and for NOW it is all "hypothetical products."

But put a few MILLION status hungry iPhone potential wannabes, in a room laden with MacBook Airs, iMacs, and FAST INTERNET connections....and the NUKE EFFECT will blow out the WinDoze { pun intended } and the SEISMIC SHIFT from the old way...to the dazzling new way will have just had a shot of Viagra.

[tom1234]

i can not wait to trade in my three (wife daughter and i ) iphones on the new one ---

[mollytjm]

Apple will open a store in China in time for the Olympics. Provided that the smog clears enough, we will see athletes and tourists alike, seeking, not pins, but apple products to take home. The market will go up, it will go down, but in the end, Apple will ride the wave and prosper. Grab your board mates, surf's up!